MNI US OPEN - Double Release of US Payrolls and U/E Update

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• MNI US PAYROLLS PREVIEW: DOUBLE NFP AND A SINGLE UNEMPLOYMENT UPDATE
• ZELENSKIY SAYS US PLEDGED CONGRESS WILL BACK SECURITY GUARANTEES
• UK UNEMPLOYMENT UP TO 5.1%, WAGES ON TRACK FOR BOE FORECAST
• EZ FLASH PMIS WEAKER THAN EXPECTED, BUT Q4 COMPOSITE 3% ABOVE Q3

Figure 1: Recent US labour market developments

MNI PREVIEWS

MNI US PAYROLLS PREVIEW: Double NFPs and a Single Unemployment Update

It’s an unusual payrolls release this month, with two months of data for the establishment survey (payrolls, hours worked and wages) for October and November plus a single report for the household survey (unemployment and participation rates) in November. The BLS wasn’t able to conduct a household survey for October under the government shutdown and will have had to run the November survey shortly after the government re-opened. Nonfarm payrolls growth is seen at 50k in November after slipping circa -25k in October, with the latter coming from a wide range of expectations for the impact of DOGE deferred resignations.

MNI UK DATA PREVIEW: December 2025 Release

Both labour market data and CPI data will be critical for the expected MPC cut on Thursday (which at the time of writing all of the sellside previews that we had seen had pencilled in a 25bp cut while markets priced 22bp). In order to get a cut across the line it is likely that all four members who voted for a November cut repeat their votes and likely that we need Governor Bailey to join them. There is additional focus on Lombardelli potentially joining the doves, with some also not ruling out a potential 7-2 vote.

MNI NBH PREVIEW: Chance of a Dovish Shift

The final NBH meeting of the year could present the central bank with an opportunity to lay the groundwork for a rate cut in Q1/Q2 next year. While the overwhelming likelihood is that the base rate will remain unchanged at 6.50% until after the elections next year, the December Inflation Report may present the case for a dovish shift in language. Among sell-side, the base rate is unanimously expected to be unchanged, but the prospect of a communication tweak is considered.

MNI CHILE CB PREVIEW: Rate Cut Seen as CPI Fears Ease

The BCCh is widely expected to deliver a 25bp reference rate cut to 4.50% on Tuesday after benign CPI data over the last two months have eased policymakers concerns about persistent inflation pressures. Headline inflation has fallen back within the central bank’s 2-4% target range over the period, while the policy relevant ex-volatiles measure has also declined to below the central bank’s latest projections.

MNI BI PREVIEW: BI Holds, Rupiah Stability Key

Bank Indonesia announces its decision on Wednesday and like the last couple of meetings it is likely to be a balanced discussion. Currently 21 analysts on Bloomberg expect rates to remain unchanged at 4.75% and 11 are forecasting a 25bp cut. In Q3, BI's focus was on growth but this quarter it appears to have returned to FX stability. USDIDR is down 0.5% and the BIS IDR NEER is up 0.3% since the last meeting but the rupiah remains weaker than its mid-year levels and so BI may want to see further strengthening before easing again.

MNI BOT PREVIEW: Macro Conditions Warrant Easing

Bank of Thailand is likely to announce a 25bp rate cut on Wednesday, which would bring it to 1.25% and easing in 2025 to 100bp. With core inflation remaining below the bottom of BoT's target band, severe weather events, disappointing Q3 GDP, slowing export growth and continued baht strength, the central bank is likely to deem the timing this month as appropriate. 

NEWS

NORWAY (MNI): Statistics Norway Expects One Cut in Each of 2026 and 2027

Statistics Norway expects Norges Bank to cut the policy rate once in each of 2026 and 2027, consistent with the central bank's September MPR projections. We expect a downward revision to Norges Bank's December MPR rate path on Thursday, which may tilt the 2026 balance in favour of two 25bp cuts. However, we think the implied probability of two cuts in 2026 will be only a little above 50%. Stats Norway writes that "given inflation that is still higher than the target, it will take time for interest rates to come down further", and expects the policy rate to remain at 3.5% beyond 2027 - around the upper end of Norges Bank's neutral range.

DATA

UK DATA (MNI): Unemployment Up to 5.1%, Wages on Track for BOE Forecast

• UK OCT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 5.08% (VS 4.97% SEP)
• UK OCT AWE PRIVATE REGULAR PAY +3.87% 3MO Y/Y (VS +4.21%)
• UK NOV PAYE PAYROLLS FLASH 1MO CHANGE -38.0K (VS -21.9K OCT)
• UK NOV PAYE MEDIAN PAY +2.7% Y/Y (VS +3.7% OCT)

The unemployment rate rounds to 5.1% (as expected by the MNI median) at 5.08%. The single month rate picked up to 5.03%. That is a 0.41ppt (broadly in line with the single month increases for the other 2 cohorts recently). Despite this the 3-month employment change was a bit higher than expected at -16k (MNI median -60k). Private regular AWE was a little higher than expected at 3.87% Y/Y in the 3-months to October. The single month rate there is 3.48% Y/Y (3.4% would have been consistent with rounding to the 3.8% 3-month rate as the MNI median expected). Public sector pay was a little higher (particularly on bonuses - that won't impact monpol really). Payrolls were a bit softer than expected falling -38k in the flash Nov print (but there was an upward revision to some of the past data partially offsetting this).

UK DATA (MNI): Flash PMI a Little Above Consensus; Hints at Possible Sticky Inflation

• UK DEC FLASH MANUF PMI 51.2 (50.3 FCAST, 50.2 NOV)
• UK DEC FLASH SERV PMI 52.1 (51.6 FCAST, 51.3 NOV)

Both services and manufacturing PMIs a little consensus. The details are a little concerning for the doves here (and will definitely not be encouraging for the hawks) with costs pressures (inc wages) being passed through as margins are already squeezed. We don't think this changes much for this week's meeting, but if it is repeated over the next few months it adds to the hawks' argument that inflation could be stickier than expected.

EUROZONE DATA (MNI): Flash PMIs Weaker Than Expected, But Q4 Composite 3% Above Q3

• EUROZONE DEC FLASH MANUF PMI 49.2 (49.9 FCAST, 49.6 NOV)
• EUROZONE DEC FLASH SERV PMI 52.6 (53.3 FCAST, 53.6 NOV)

The Eurozone-wide composite PMI of 51.9 was weaker-than-expected (vs 52.6 cons, 52.8 prior), but remains comfortably in expansionary territory. The Q4 average composite PMI was 3% above Q3's average. For comparison, the Q3 average was 1% above Q2. Manufacturing momentum continues to fade, while services' moderation still leaves the subcomponent above the 52 handle. Services fell to a 3-month low of 52.6 (vs 53.3 cons, 53.6 prior). We estimate the Germany/France services PMI at 51.6 (vs 52.4 in Nov, 51.8 in Oct) and the ex-Germany/France reading at 54.3 (vs 55.7 in Nov). Manufacturing fell to an eight-month low of 49.2 (vs 49.9 cons, 49.6 prior). We estimate the Germany/France manufacturing PMI at 48.5 (vs 48.1 prior), and the ex-Germany/France reading at 50.1 (vs 51.5 prior) - an eight-month low.

GERMANY DATA (MNI): Dec Flash PMIs Show Both Sectors Weaker Than Expected

• GERMANY DEC FLASH MANUF PMI 47.7 (48.6 FCAST, 48.2 NOV)
• GERMANY DEC FLASH SERV PMI 52.6 (53.0 FCAST, 53.1 NOV)

The German composite PMI remains in expansionary territory, but the 51.5 December flash reading (vs 52.4 cons) was the second consecutive pullback from 52.4 in November and 53.9 in October. Manufacturing saw a deeper retracement than services to a 10-month low, but both sector's PMIs were weaker-than-expected. The details of the release show plenty of services/manufacturing divergences across subcomponents: Weak export demand dragged on manufacturing orders, potentially an ongoing impact of higher US effective tariff rates. Despite the overall services PMI remaining in expansionary territory, the fall in year-ahead business confidence was driven exclusively by that sector - manufacturing confidence rose relative to November.

GERMANY ZEW DEC ECONOMIC EXPECTATIONS 45.8 (MNI)
GERMANY ZEW DEC CURRENT CONDITIONS -81.0 (MNI)

FRANCE DATA (MNI): Weak PMI Details Despite Solid Rise in Manufacturing

• FRANCE DEC FLASH MANUF PMI 50.6 (48.1 FCAST, 47.8 NOV)
• FRANCE DEC FLASH SERV PMI 50.2 (51.1 FCAST, 51.4 NOV)

Although the French flash December composite PMI was essentially in line with expectations at 50.1 (vs 50.2 cons, 50.4 prior), the details of the report appear somewhat weak. Ongoing political uncertainty contributed to a decline in overall private sector new business volumes and year-ahead growth expectations. This was most felt on the services side, with the services component weaker-than-expected at 50.2 (vs 51.1 cons, 51.4 prior). However, note that the services PMI remains above the contractionary levels seen through September 2024 - October 2025.

JAPAN DATA (MNI): PMIs Mixed, But Manufacturing Rises, Back Close to 50.0

Japan S&P global preliminary PMIs for December were mixed. Most focus will likely rest with the manufacturing outcome, which rose to 49.7 from 48.7 prior. The services PMI eased to 52.5, from 53.2, while the composite reading was 51.5 (52.0 prior). On the manufacturing side, while still in contraction territory it is back near highs from the middle of this year. This fits with broader sentiment measures, like the Tankan survey, which have held up reasonably well. Fears of a significant negative impact (global slowdown etc) from higher US tariff levels haven't materialized. The higher PMI reading should support IP output all else equal, although IP growth has been outperforming softer PMI trends in recent months.

AUSTRALIA DATA (MNI): Services PMI Eases, Pointing to Slower Domestic Demand Growth

Australian preliminary S&P global PMI readings for Dec were mixed. Manufacturing improved to 52.2, from 51.6 in Nov. However, services eased to 51.0 from 52.8. This saw the composite index fall to 51.1, from 52.6 prior. The services PMI is now comfortably off 2025 highs (near 56, recorded in Aug). The softer services PMI is suggesting slower domestic growth, but from a high base and still in positive territory.

AUSTRALIA DATA (MNI): Consumer Sentiment Dips, Inflation/Interest Rate Outlook Weigh

The Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index fell back sharply in Dec, off 9% to 94.5. Recall that we saw a surge in the Nov print to 103.8, which was the highest sentiment reading since early 2022. This latest moves corrects somewhat for that but we remain above 2025 lows for sentiment, which were around 90.0. Westpac noted: "The Index has jumped around in recent months, but it has finished the year broadly in 'cautiously pessimistic' territory. While this marks a clear improvement from the prolonged, deep pessimism that defined much of 2024, a sustained move into outright optimism remains elusive for the Australian consumer."

NEW ZEALAND DATA (MNI): Food Prices Fall Again in Nov, Gains in Most Other Segments Though

New Zealand food prices fell a further 0.4% m/m in Nov, the third consecutive monthly fall. We sit at 4.4%y/y for Nov, slightly down from the 4.7% y/y pace seen in Oct. We are gradually moving off recent cycle highs for food inflation(around 5% recorded mid 2025). Fruit and vegetables fell by 4.5%, as the main source of weakness for this segment. In terms of the other segments, we saw positive m/m gains for Nov. Rents edged up 0.1% m/m, while gas and petrol were again up strongly, 2.2% m/m and 1.8% m/m respectively (electricity was +0.1%, but down from the 0.5% gain seen in Oct).

FOREX: Dollar Tilts Lower Ahead of Payrolls, JPY and GBP Outperforming

• The Dollar index is 0.1% in the red Tuesday, hovering just above the recent pullback lows as we approach the return of tier-one data from the US later today. GBP outperforms across the G10 following UK labour market data that showed higher-than-expected wage data, while risk-off sentiment overnight has moderately boosted the yen. Both French and German flash services PMIs were a touch weaker-than-expected but have done little to move the EUR needle this morning.
• GBP added to the morning's gains on the back of a firm UK PMI print, with GBPUSD comfortably clear through yesterday's highs above the 1.34 handle. Price action narrows the gap with major resistance into 1.3438 - the multi-month high. Meanwhile, EURGBP has slipped 0.2% in tandem, and with current spot levels of 0.8771, may have further to run towards last week’s lows at 0.8720.
• Weakness for major equity benchmarks across the APAC session, led by tech names, has boosted the Japanese yen, with USDJPY slipping to a new weekly low of 154.68. Despite the underlying bullish theme for USDJPY, support at 154.00, the 50-day EMA, remains exposed. A clear breach of this average would undermine the bull theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement.
• While the Euro has not been impacted by today’s flash PMI’s, EURUSD is consolidating close to recent highs around 1.1760. With multiple tier-one data releases from the US upcoming, as well as the ECB decision, market attention will be firmly on the pair. Recent gains have reinforced a bull theme highlighting potential for an extension higher. Sights are on 1.1779 next, the October 1 high.
• All focus on US data later today, with a double release of NFP included in the employment report, alongside retail sales data for October.

EGBS: Dec Flash PMIs Have Little Impact on EGBs, Focus on ECB and Issuance Plans

Slightly weaker-than-expected Eurozone December flash PMIs had little impact on core EGBs - the data doesn’t materially change expectations ahead of Thursday's ECB decision. Alongside the ECB, there remains interest in issuance plans from Germany and Italy on Thursday/Friday. German yields are up to 1bp lower across the curve, with the 5-year tenor modestly outperforming. 

• 10-year Bund yields are ~2.85%, with the early December rise stalling ahead of the 2.90% figure.
• Bund futures are -4 ticks at 127.54, with a bear cycle still intact. Initial resistance remains at 128.08 (Dec 8 high).
• Note that the 10-year BTP/Bund spread is back above 70bp simply owing to a Bloomberg benchmark roll.
• The 10-year OAT/Bund spread remains above 70bps. The National Assembly is expected to submit final approval of the 2026 social security bill today, but primary uncertainty remains on state budget negotiations.
• In addition to yesterday's plans for the EU to issue E90bln of EU-bonds in H1-26, it has now noted that it expects "around" E160bln for 2026 as a whole (the same target as 2025 and same H1/H2 breakdown). 10-year EU-bonds outperform Bunds by around 1.5bps on the session (spread at 35bps).
• Today’s global calendar is headlined by the US labour market report.

GILTS: Off Lows After Auction Sees Solid Demand, Curve Bear Steepens on the Day

Gilt futures recover after registering fresh lows around the bidding deadline for the Mar-31 gilt auction, with solid auction results helping the space to find a base.

• While this morning’s firmer-than-expected wage and PMI data doesn’t alter the outlook for Thursday’s BoE decision, it did provide a marginal hawkish impulse for markets beyond that event.
• Wages are still on track to ease in line with BoE estimates, but an extended run of similar PMI readings over the next few months would add to the hawks' argument that inflation could be stickier than expected.
• Futures base at 90.83, last -34 at 90.95.
• Initial technical parameters in the contract remain unchanged
• Recent price action in futures highlights 90.53, the Nov 25/26 low, and 91.93, the Nov 27 high, as the important short-term directional triggers.
• Yields 1.5-2.5bp higher, curve a little steeper on the day.
• 10s 3bp wider vs. Bunds on the day at 167bp, after the spread failed to break below the September ’24 closing low (162.01bp) during the recent round of narrowing.
• Widening vs. Bunds comes on the combination of the aforementioned UK data and soft German PMIs.
• SONIA futures now flat to -4.0, also trading a little steeper after the data, with the front end pinned by ongoing expectations for a cut on Thursday.
• BoE-dated OIS prices 22bp of easing for Thursday and 59bp through end ’26 (vs. ~61.5bp late yesterday).
• Tomorrow’s CPI data presents the next key domestic input for STIR pricing, with U.S. NFP data due in the interim.

EQUITIES: Current Bull Cycle in Eurostoxx 50 Futures Remains Intact

The current bull cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact. Price is trading above the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and has cleared 5742.40, 76.4% of the Nov 13 - 21 bear leg. The breach of this latter price point paves the way for an extension towards 5825.00, the Nov 13 high and the bull trigger. First key support to watch lies at 5645.93, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the EMA would highlight a potential short-term reversal. A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest pullback - for now - is considered corrective. Initial support to watch is 6830.94, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Note that the key support and reversal trigger lies at 6583.00, the Nov 21 low. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on the key resistance and bull trigger at 7014.00, the Oct 30 high.

• Japan's NIKKEI closed lower by 784.82 pts or -1.56% at 49383.29 and the TOPIX ended 60.97 pts lower or -1.78% at 3370.5.
• Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed lower by 43.109 pts or -1.11% at 3824.812 and the HANG SENG ended 393.47 pts lower or -1.54% at 25235.41.
• Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades lower by 85.86 pts or -0.35% at 24150.1, FTSE 100 lower by 21.1 pts or -0.22% at 9738.56, CAC 40 up 9.55 pts or +0.12% at 8142.29 and Euro Stoxx 50 down 8.11 pts or -0.14% at 5748.89.
• Dow Jones mini down 129 pts or -0.27% at 48353, S&P 500 mini down 27.5 pts or -0.4% at 6800.25, NASDAQ mini down 143.75 pts or -0.57% at 24967.5.

Time: 10:00 GMT

COMMODITIES: WTI Futures Probing Key Support and Bear Trigger at $55.99

A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and recent weakness reinforces this theme. MA studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on key support and the bear trigger at $55.99, the Oct 20 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend and open $54.72, the Apr 9 low. Key short-term resistance to watch is $61.84, the Oct 24 high. First resistance is at $59.43, the 50- day EMA. A bullish theme in Gold remains intact. The bear phase between Oct 20 - 28 appears to have been a correction and note that the recovery since Oct 28 signals the end of that corrective cycle. Key support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $4078.9. Clearance of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Attention is on key resistance and the bull trigger at $4381.5, the Oct 20 high.

• WTI Crude down $0.98 or -1.72% at $55.87
• Natural Gas down $0.1 or -2.39% at $3.911
• Gold spot down $24.06 or -0.56% at $4280.14
• Copper down $6.2 or -1.15% at $535
• Silver down $1.1 or -1.71% at $63.055
• Platinum up $13.38 or +0.75% at $1805.25

Time: 10:00 GMT

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Country	Event
16/12/2025	1330/0830	***	US	Employment Report
16/12/2025	1330/0830	***	US	Retail Sales
16/12/2025	1355/0855	**	US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
16/12/2025	1445/0945	***	US	S&P Global Manufacturing Index (Flash)
16/12/2025	1445/0945	***	US	S&P Global Services Index (flash)
16/12/2025	1500/1000	*	US	Business Inventories
16/12/2025	1745/1245		CA	BOC Gov Macklem speech in Montreal
17/12/2025	2350/0850	*	JP	Machinery orders
17/12/2025	0001/0001	*	GB	Brightmine Pay Deals for Whole Economy
17/12/2025	0700/0700	***	GB	Consumer Inflation Report (1dp)
17/12/2025	0700/0700	***	GB	Producer Prices
17/12/2025	0700/1500	**	CN	MNI China Money Market Index (MMI)
17/12/2025	0700/0700	***	GB	Consumer Inflation Report (2dp)
17/12/2025	0900/1000	***	DE	IFO Business Climate Index
17/12/2025	1000/1100	***	EU	EZ HICP Final
17/12/2025	1100/1100	**	GB	CBI Industrial Trends
17/12/2025	1200/0700	**	US	MBA Weekly Applications Index
17/12/2025	1315/0815		US	Fed Governor Christopher Waller
17/12/2025	1330/0830	*	CA	International Canadian Transaction in Securities
17/12/2025	1405/0905		US	New York Fed's John Williams
17/12/2025	1530/1030	**	US	DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
17/12/2025	1530/1030	**	US	US DOE Petroleum Supply
17/12/2025	1730/1230		US	Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic
17/12/2025	1800/1300	**	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 20 Year Bond
18/12/2025	2145/1045	***	NZ	GDP