MNI US OPEN - China Finds Nvidia Violated Antitrust Law

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• CHINA FINDS NVIDIA VIOLATED ANTITRUST LAW AFTER INITIAL PROBE
• BESSENT AND HE MEET FOR SECOND DAY OF TRADE TALKS IN MADRID
• TRUMP EXPECTS A ‘BIG CUT’ FROM FEDERAL RESERVE THIS WEEK
• CHINA'S AUGUST INVESTMENT SLOWS TO FIVE-YEAR LOW

Figure 1: FOMC Meeting-Dated Fed Funds-Implied Rate Paths (%)

x-axis = FOMC decision dates. Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., MNI

NEWS

MNI FED PREVIEW: A Reluctant Return to Easing

The Federal Reserve is set to resume its easing cycle at the September 16-17 meeting with a 25bp cut to the funds rate range to 4.00-4.25%. The decision to cut after a 5-meeting pause was well-telegraphed by Chair Powell, whose Jackson Hole speech described a “shifting balance of risks” toward a weaker labor market that “may warrant adjusting our policy stance”. The updated quarterly projections aren’t likely to bring many changes to the macroeconomic variables, but as usual the signal sent from the Fed rate “Dot Plot” will garner attention. A Committee split between expecting one or two further cuts this year is likely, keeping each of the remaining meetings of 2025 “live”.

US/CHINA (BBG): China Finds Nvidia Violated Antitrust Law After Initial Probe

China ruled that Nvidia Corp. violated anti-monopoly laws after concluding a preliminary investigation, ratcheting up the pressure on Washington during sensitive trade negotiations. The US chipmaker was found in violation of antitrust regulations, the State Administration for Market Regulation said in a one-sentence statement, without elaborating. The company has previously disclosed it’s facing scrutiny inside China, where regulators demanded it keep supplying local companies in return for regulatory approval of its acquisition of Mellanox.

US/CHINA (MNI): Bessent and He Meet for Second Day of Trade Talks in Madrid

MNI (London) Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters the US is "not willing to sacrifice national security," in pursuit of a trade deal with China, ahead of a second day of talks with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Spain, per Reuters. Reuters reports six hours of talks yesterday concluded with "no indication of a breakthrough" in trade or the Sept. 17 deadline for Chinese TikTok divestment. Bessent said the two sides are "very close" to a TikTok resolution but stressed, "it does not affect overall relationship with China."

MNI (Beijing) China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) could be rebounding, supported by stronger consumer demand and seasonal factors, according to Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics. Upcoming holidays such as the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day are expected to boost spending, while cooler weather may lift food demand, Fu said. However, careful analysis was needed to determine the overall trend, Fu cautioned, after August CPI reached minus 0.4% year‑on‑year, with core CPI up 0.9% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from July, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth.

RBA (MNI EXCLUSIVE): Wage Strength Key Risk to RBA Inflation Outlook

MNI looks at the key risks that could impact the RBA's outlook. On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com.

DATA

CHINA DATA (MNI): China’s August Investment Slows to Five-Year Low

• CHINA YTD FIXED-ASSET INVESTMENT +0.5% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +1.5%
• CHINA AUG INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT +5.2% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +5.6% Y/Y
• CHINA AUG RETAIL SALES +3.4% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +3.8% Y/Y
• CHINA AUG UNEMPLOYMENT RATE +5.3% VS JUL +5.2%

MNI (Beijing) China’s fixed-asset investment growth decelerated to 0.5% y/y in the Jan–Aug period from the previous 1.6%, marking the slowest pace since Aug 2020 and missing an expectation of 1.5%, National Bureau of Statistics data showed Monday. Property investment fell 12.9% in the first eight months, the sharpest drop since Feb 2020, after a 12.0% decline in Jan-Jul. Infrastructure and manufacturing investment grew 2.0% and 5.1%, down from 3.2% and 6.2%.

RATINGS: France Downgraded at Fitch, Iberians Receive Upgrades

Sovereign rating reviews of note from Friday include: 

• Fitch downgraded France to A+; Outlook Stable
• Fitch upgraded Portugal to A; Outlook Stable
• Fitch affirmed South Africa at BB-; Outlook Stable
• S&P affirmed Croatia at A-; Outlook Positive
• S&P upgraded Spain to A+; Outlook Stable
• Morningstar DBRS confirmed Ireland at AA, Stable Trend
• Scope Ratings affirmed Austria at AA+; Outlook changed to Negative
• Scope Ratings affirmed Germany at AAA; Outlook Stable
• Scope Ratings affirmed the Netherlands at AAA; Outlook Stable

FOREX: AUD and GBP Moderately Outperforming

• The dollar index has operated within a 21 pip range on Monday, as markets await a stacked data and central bank calendar this week, headlined by the Fed. While moves remain moderate, the likes of AUD and GBP are outperforming early Monday.
• This has allowed AUDUSD to rise back towards cycle highs. Last week’s gains plus the breach of 0.6625, the Jul 24 high and bull trigger, confirmed a resumption of the technical uptrend, and the pair has narrowed the gap substantially to the US election related highs at 0.6688.
• It is worth noting that EURAUD sits over 3% below the late August highs, with a breach of trendline support and the July 31 low bolstering bearish momentum. Targets on the downside would include 1.7462 (Jun 10 low) and 1.7248 (May 14 low).
• GBPUSD broke above last Friday’s highs this morning to reach an intra-day high of 1.3599, briefly breaching the bull trigger located at 1.3595, the August 14 high. The rally that started Sep 3 has retraced the steep Sep 2 sell-off and highlights a stronger bullish development. This suggests the corrective cycle between Aug 14 - Sep 3 is over. UK Labour market figures, CPI data and the BOE will place a huge amount of attention on sterling this week.
• USDJPY is also a touch lower since the open, however, spot levels of 147.40 are not far from the mid-point of the recent 146.20-149.15 range. The Bank of Japan will also meet this week.
• US Empire State manufacturing data headlines a relatively quiet economic calendar on Monday. No surprises are expected from ECB President Lagarde, due to speak at Montaigne Institute’s 25th anniversary event, in Paris.

EGBS: Upside Bias for Futures This Morning; Ratings Decisions Digested

Major EGB futures have drifted higher through the morning, with Bunds +21 ticks at 128.77.  Initial firm resistance is the Sep 12 high at 129.09. 

• Early focus for EGBs was on the digestion of Friday’s ratings decisions. OATs modestly underperform Bunds after Fitch downgraded France’s rating to A+. The 10-year OAT/Bund spread reached an opening high of almost 81bps this morning, but has since eased back to 79.5bps (+0.5bps today). While a net-negative for OATs, the ratings decision didn’t come as a massive surprise.
• Meanwhile, upgrades for Spain (S&P to A+) and Portugal (Fitch to A) have contributed to SPGB and PGB outperformance. The 10-year SPGB/Bund spread is 1bp tighter at 56bps, while the PGB/Bund spread is 0.5bps tighter at 40bps.
• German yields are 1.5-2.5bps lower, with the belly of the curve outperforming.
• Early ECBspeak has not been market moving, with new Austrian CB Governor Kocher outlining his pragmatic stance to policy. The median respondent to the ECB’s latest Survey of Monetary Analysts still sees one more 25bp cut this cycle.
• The Eurozone July trade surplus was smaller-than-expected at E5.3bln (vs E12.0bln cons, E3.7bln prior). 

GILTS: Parralel Downtick in Yields After Friday's Low in Futures Holds

Gilts continue to edge away from session lows after Friday’s base in futures held (91.14) and as wider core global FI markets trade on the front foot, last 91.40.

• The recent bullish cycle in the contract remains intact, with support and resistance of note located at 90.65 & 91.82.
• Yields ~3bp lower across the curve.
• Last week’s flattening left 2s10s and 5s30s 13bp & 11bp off their respective September closing highs as of Friday’s close.
• SONIA futures unchanged to +2.5.
• BoE-dated OIS continues to price ~8bp of easing through year-end.
• As noted earlier, we have plenty of domestic risk events of note this week, with labour market data (Tuesday), inflation readings (Wednesday) and the BoE decision (Thursday) all due.
• With Bank Rate expected to be left unchanged, focus should quickly move to the BoE’s QT decision.
• Expect our full previews in due course, but overviews of the 3 events can be found in our Global Week Ahead.
• Elsewhere, local headline flow points to the potential for VAT cuts on energy bills as part of the Budget, with the Chancellor reportedly leaving “all options on the table” when it comes to easing the cost-of-living burden, despite the ongoing fiscal headwinds.
• Elsewhere, U.S. investment intentions re: the UK have gotten some airtime.

EQUITIES: E-Mini S&P Remains in a Bullish Price Sequence

A corrective bear cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains in play. Recent weakness resulted in a breach of 5370.21, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average strengthens a short-term bearish threat and signals scope for a deeper retracement towards 5166.00, the Aug 1 low and a key support. On the upside, the contract has recovered above the 20-day EMA - a bullish development for now. The next resistance to watch is 5445.00, Aug 26 high. A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and last week’s fresh cycle highs reinforce current conditions. The move higher confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on the 6685.25, a Fibonacci projection, and the 6700.00 handle. On the downside, initial support to watch is 6547.03, the 20-day EMA.

• In China the SHANGHAI closed lower by 10.094 pts or -0.26% at 3860.504 and the HANG SENG ended 58.4 pts higher or +0.22% at 26446.56.
• Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades higher by 137.47 pts or +0.58% at 23836.41, FTSE 100 lower by 2.69 pts or -0.03% at 9280.55, CAC 40 up 93.41 pts or +1.19% at 7918.65 and Euro Stoxx 50 up 47.55 pts or +0.88% at 5438.26.
• Dow Jones mini up 114 pts or +0.25% at 45967, S&P 500 mini up 7 pts or +0.11% at 6595, NASDAQ mini down 10.5 pts or -0.04% at 24102.75.

Time: 10:00 BST

COMMODITIES: Gold in a Clear Bull Cycle, Close to Recent Record Highs

The trend condition in WTI futures is unchanged - a bear cycle remains intact short-term gains are considered corrective. The pullback from the Sep 2 high highlights a possible recent reversal and the end of a corrective phase between Aug 13 - Sep 2. Initial resistance to watch is $66.03, the Sep 2 high. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $69.36, the Jul 30 high. A stronger resumption of weakness would open $57.71, the May 30 low. Gold remains in a clear bull cycle and continues to trade at its recent highs. The yellow metal traded to a fresh all-time high once again, last week. The break higher confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and an extension of the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The next objective is $3674.8, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support lies at $3504.1, the 20-day EMA.

• WTI Crude up $0.26 or +0.41% at $62.94
• Natural Gas up $0.02 or +0.82% at $2.964
• Gold spot up $1.54 or +0.04% at $3644.05
• Copper up $0.35 or +0.08% at $465.5
• Silver up $0.02 or +0.05% at $42.199
• Platinum up $3.49 or +0.25% at $1400.63

Time: 10:00 BST

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Country	Event
15/09/2025	1130/1330		EU	ECB Schnabel At EIB Chief Econ Meeting
15/09/2025	1230/0830	**	CA	Monthly Survey of Manufacturing
15/09/2025	1230/0830	**	CA	Wholesale Trade
15/09/2025	1230/0830	**	US	Empire State Manufacturing Survey
15/09/2025	1300/0900	*	CA	CREA Existing Home Sales
15/09/2025	1530/1130	*	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
15/09/2025	1530/1130	*	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
15/09/2025	1810/2010		EU	ECB Lagarde at Institut Montaigne Paris
15/09/2025	-		US	FOMC Meetings with S.E.P.
16/09/2025	0600/0700	***	GB	Labour Market - AWE & Unemployment
16/09/2025	0600/0700	***	GB	Labour Market - AWE & Unemployment
16/09/2025	0600/0700	***	GB	Labour Market - Payrolls & Claimants
16/09/2025	0600/0700	***	GB	Labour Market - Payrolls & Claimants
16/09/2025	0800/1000	***	IT	HICP (f)
16/09/2025	0900/1100	***	DE	ZEW Current Expectations Index
16/09/2025	0900/1000	**	GB	Gilt Outright Auction Result
16/09/2025	0900/1100	**	EU	EZ Industrial Production
16/09/2025	1215/0815	**	CA	CMHC Housing Starts
16/09/2025	1230/0830	***	CA	CPI
16/09/2025	1230/0830	***	US	Retail Sales
16/09/2025	1230/0830	**	US	Import/Export Price Index
16/09/2025	1230/0830	***	US	Retail Sales
16/09/2025	1255/0855	**	US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
16/09/2025	1315/0915	***	US	Industrial Production
16/09/2025	1400/1000	*	US	Business Inventories
16/09/2025	1400/1000	**	US	NAHB Home Builder Index
16/09/2025	1400/1000	*	US	Business Inventories
16/09/2025	1700/1300	**	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 20 Year Bond