EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
Figure 1: GBP/USD maintains break of uptrendline support, despite higher UK CPI
Source: MNI/Bloomberg Finance L.P.
NEWS
FED (MNI): Fed's Logan - Could Be Fall Before Tariff Clarity
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan on Tuesday said it could be the fall before it is clear how much impact rising import tariffs have on inflation. "My expectation is we'll be looking at the data over the course of the summer and into the fall before we really have a good read on how they're affecting prices overall," she said about the impacts of the Trump administration's tariff policies.
US (WSJ): Trump Executive Order to Help Open Up 401(k)s to Private Markets
President Trump is expected to sign an executive order in the coming days designed to help make private-market investments more available to U.S. retirement plans, according to people familiar with the matter. The order would instruct the Labor Department and the Securities and Exchange Commission to provide guidance to employers and plan administrators on including investments like private assets in 401(k) plans, the people said.
US (WaPo): Vance casts tie-breaking vote as Senate advances bill to slash $9 billion from budget
The legislation to claw back funding for foreign aid, NPR and PBS is a Trump administration priority, but some Senate Republicans have raised concerns about the cuts.
UKRAINE (Reuters): Patriot Missile Systems Meeting Could Take Place on Weds Next Week
A meeting of patriot missile system owner nations and Ukraine donors that are aiming to find additional patriot air defence batteries for Kyiv could take place on Wednesday next week, according to a source close to the talks. The meeting is to be chaired by NATO's top military commander.
FRANCE (MNI): Opposition Criticise Budget After PM Outlines 2026 Proposals:
Opposition politicians have been lining up to criticise the budget proposals announced by PM Francois Bayrou on 15 July. There is a strong likelihood that, given the gov'ts minority status, Bayrou will have to push the budget through using Article 49.3 of the French constitution in order to avoid a vote.
EU (MNI): Commission To Unveil Multi-Trillion Euro Long-Term Budget Proposal ~17:00CET
At around 17:00CET (11:00ET, 16:00BST), European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Budget Commissioner Piotr Serafin are set to hold a press conference to unveil Commission proposals for the next Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF). The MFF is the long-term EU budget spanning 2028 to 2034. Politico reported late on 15 July that the central budget figure being targeted by the Commission is EUR1.717 trillion, which "would mean total spending would rise to 1.23 percent of gross national income for the seven years from 2028, compared with around 1.1 percent over the current period."
CHINA (MNI): China To Open Consumption Market - He Lifeng
China is launching targeted campaigns to boost consumption and create broader markets for global enterprises, while leading developing countries to participate in global industrial and supply chains, said vice premier He Lifeng, at the China International Supply Chain Expo in Beijing on Wednesday.
INDONESIA (BBG): Indonesia Cuts Rate to Support Growth as Trump Sets 19% Tariff'
Bank Indonesia cut its benchmark interest rate to shore up growth after US President Donald Trump announced a 19% tariff on goods from Southeast Asia’s biggest economy. Indonesia’s central bank lowered the BI-Rate by 25 basis points to 5.25% on Wednesday, its fourth cut so far in an easing cycle that began last September. Some 15 of 33 economists predicted the easing
ASML Holding NV Chief Executive Officer Christophe Fouquet walked back the company’s growth forecast for next year due to trade disputes and global tensions. “We continue to see increasing uncertainty driven by macro-economic and geopolitical developments,” Fouquet said in a statement on ASML’s quarterly results Wednesday. “Therefore, while we still prepare for growth in 2026, we cannot confirm it at this stage.”
Air fares, clothing, media drivers with marginal broad services
SWEDEN (MNI): June PES Data Indicates Labour Market Conditions Are Still Subdued
The Swedish unemployment claims rate ticked up a tenth to 7.1% on a rounded basis in June, after seven consecutive months at 7.0%. Labour demand metrics within the report improved slightly relative to May, but the broader signal is still that the labour market is subdued. This will likely contribute to one more Riksbank cut this year, with analysts generally leaning towards a move in September. However, it is still too early to fully rule out a cut in August.
EGBS: Bund Futures Off Session Lows But Bearish Theme Still Dominant
Bund futures are off session lows following a downtick in Brent crude futures, but remain -6 ticks at 129.40. A bearish technical theme remains intact, with initial support the July 14 low at 129.08, clearance of which would expose the key support at 128.97 (May 14 low).
GILTS: Off Lows As Support Holds & Oil Softens, 50bp BoE Cuts Priced Through Dec
Gilts trade away from lows after support in futures held and with oil prices edging lower. Still, yields are higher across the curve in the wake of this morning’s firmer-than-expected CPI reading.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Aug-25 | 4.009 | -20.8 |
Sep-25 | 3.956 | -26.1 |
Nov-25 | 3.794 | -42.3 |
Dec-25 | 3.710 | -50.7 |
Feb-26 | 3.582 | -63.5 |
Mar-26 | 3.549 | -66.8 |
FOREX: Greenback Consolidating Tuesday Advance, GBP Contained Post CPI
EQUITIES: Futures Extend Tuesday Weakness
S&P E-Minis are trading in a range, closer to their recent highs. The trend condition remains bullish. Recent activity has resulted in a break of resistance at 6128.75, the Jun 11 high. The breach confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. A bull cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains in play and the latest pullback still appears corrective. Recent gains have exposed key resistance and the bull trigger at 5486.00, the May 20 high.
COMMODITIES: Gold Finds Support at 50-dma
A bull cycle in Gold that started Jun 30, remains intact and the yellow metal is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Note that medium-term trend conditions are bullish - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. WTI futures maintain a bearish tone. The sharp reversal from the Jun 23 high continues to highlight scope for an extension lower and this suggests that recent gains have been corrective.
Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
16/07/2025 | 0900/1100 | * | ![]() | Trade Balance |
16/07/2025 | 1100/0700 | ** | ![]() | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
16/07/2025 | 1215/0815 | ** | ![]() | CMHC Housing Starts |
16/07/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | ![]() | PPI |
16/07/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | ![]() | PPI |
16/07/2025 | 1315/0915 | *** | ![]() | Industrial Production |
16/07/2025 | 1315/0915 | ![]() | Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack | |
16/07/2025 | 1400/1000 | ![]() | Fed Governor Michael Barr | |
16/07/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | ![]() | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
16/07/2025 | 1800/1400 | ![]() | Fed Beige Book | |
16/07/2025 | 2230/1830 | ![]() | New York Fed's John Williams | |
17/07/2025 | 0130/1130 | *** | ![]() | Labor Force Survey |
17/07/2025 | 0600/0700 | *** | ![]() | Labour Market Survey |
17/07/2025 | 0900/1100 | *** | ![]() | HICP (f) |
17/07/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | ![]() | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
17/07/2025 | - | ![]() | ECB Cipollone At G20 Meeting | |
17/07/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | ![]() | Jobless Claims |
17/07/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | ![]() | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
17/07/2025 | 1230/0830 | * | ![]() | International Canadian Transaction in Securities |
17/07/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | ![]() | Retail Sales |
17/07/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | ![]() | Import/Export Price Index |
17/07/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | ![]() | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index |
17/07/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | ![]() | Retail Sales |
17/07/2025 | 1400/1000 | * | ![]() | Business Inventories |
17/07/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | ![]() | NAHB Home Builder Index |
17/07/2025 | 1400/1000 | * | ![]() | Business Inventories |
17/07/2025 | 1400/1000 | ![]() | Fed Governor Adriana Kugler | |
17/07/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | ![]() | Natural Gas Stocks |
17/07/2025 | 1530/1130 | ** | ![]() | US Bill 04 Week Treasury Auction Result |
17/07/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | ![]() | US Bill 08 Week Treasury Auction Result |
17/07/2025 | 1645/1245 | ![]() | San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly | |
17/07/2025 | 1730/1330 | ![]() | Fed Governor Lisa Cook | |
17/07/2025 | 2000/1600 | ** | ![]() | TICS |
17/07/2025 | 2230/1830 | ![]() | Fed Governor Christopher Waller |