MACRO ANALYSIS: MNI US Macro Weekly: Weighing The Costs Of Conflict

• -3,441 USM6 117-15, sell through 117-16 post time bid at 1445:00ET, DV01 $485,000.
• The 30Y contract trades 117-15 last (-5)

• RES 4: 7066.70 1.000 proj of the Feb 6 - 11 - 17 price swing     
• RES 3: 7048.65 2.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• RES 2: 7043.00 High Jan 28 and bull trigger  
• RES 1: 6992.75 High Feb 12   
• PRICE: 6961.25 @ 19:37 GMT Feb 25
• SUP 1: 6828.50/6751.50 Low Feb 24 / 6 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: 6733.00 Low Nov 25 ‘25 
• SUP 3: 6691.56 76.4% retracement of the Nov 21 - Jan 28 bull leg
• SUP 4: 6583.00 Low Nov 21 ‘25 and a key medium-term support   

S&P E-Minis have traded higher today, resulting in a move above the 50-day EMA, at 6912.20. A clear break of it would be a short-term bullish development and signal scope for a climb towards key resistance at 7043.00, the Jan 28 high. For now, the contract remains inside a range. A reversal lower would instead refocus attention on key support at 6751.50, the Feb 6 low, where a break would highlight a stronger reversal. 

• RES 4: 114-00   Round number resistance 
• RES 3: 113-29+ High Oct 17 ‘25 high and a key M/T resistance
• RES 2: 113-18   High Nov 25 
• RES 1: 113-12+ High Feb 23
• PRICE:‌‌ 113-03  @ 19:29 GMT Feb 25
• SUP 1: 112-22   Low Feb 19 and 20
• SUP 2: 112-16+ 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 112-03+ Low Feb 12    
• SUP 4: 11128     Low Feb 11

A bull-wave in Treasuries remains in play and Monday’s rally reinforces the bullish theme and highlights the fact that the latest pullback was a correction. Resistance at 113-11+, the Feb 17 high and a short-term bull trigger, has been pierced. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 113-18, the Nov 11 ‘25 high. First support lies at 112-22, the Feb 19 and 20 low.