US INFLATION: MNI US Inflation Insight: Price Pressures Remain Elevated
Mar-13 18:27
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- Core CPI moderately undershot expectations in February with 0.23% M/M (unrounded median 0.27) following its much stronger than expected 0.45% in January.
- However, much of the downward surprise was driven by non-PCE relevant categories with airfares (-4% vs 1% expected) and vehicle insurance (0.3% vs 1% expected).
- Core PPI metrics then also came in softer than expected but, importantly for the short-term market reaction, saw details that helped confirm and if not slightly firm further the readthrough to the Fed’s preferred core PCE.
- Analysts estimates track circa 0.32/0.33% M/M for core PCE, an acceleration from the 0.285% in January at what would technically be its highest in eleven months.
- This should see both three- and six-month run rates accelerate notably, from 2.4% to 3.3% and from 2.6% to 3.0% respectively for highs since April and June.
- Fed Funds futures at one point priced just 67bp of cuts for 2025 vs 71bp seen prior to CPI having sold off into the release, but are currently back to 75bp of cuts as equities sliding on US policy induced growth concerns have outweighed the firmer core PCE tracking. A next 25bp Fed cut is seen coming in June.
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US: Majority Of GOP Voters Support Congressional Pushback To Trump
Feb-11 18:23
A new CBS/YouGov survey has found that although President Donald Trump's early actions “have been met with robust support from nation's Republicans,” this “doesn't mean they wouldn't want to see some pushback from congressional Republicans when the delegation disagrees with him.”
- CBS: “…a sizable 4 in 10 rank-and-file Republicans would have their congressional delegation support whatever Mr. Trump wants — a view largely boosted by those Republicans who identify as part of the MAGA movement.”
- CBS notes separately that 65% of Democrat voters now believe that Congressional Democrats should oppose Trump as much as possible, up from 46% in January.
- The survey suggests that the Trump administration may face opposition to its agenda when it faces legislation in Congress, with a bipartisan majority of voters comfortable with their elected officials opposing Trump's agenda.
Figure 1: Congressional Republicans’ Approach to Trump Should be… (Among Republicans)
Figure 2: Congressional Democrats’ Approach to Trump Should be too… (Democrats)
Source: CBS News/YouGov
US TSYS/SUPPLY: Review 3Y Note Auction: 1.2b Stop
Feb-11 18:04
- Treasury futures bounce briefly but remain weaker after $58B 3Y note auction (91282CMN8) 1.2bp stop, drawing 4.300% high yield vs. 4.312% WI; 2.79x bid-to-cover vs. 2.62x prior.
- Peripheral stats see indirect take-up climbs to 74.00% vs. 60.98% prior; direct bidder take-up 15.82% from 19.67% prior; primary dealer take-up 10.18% vs. 19.36% prior.
- The next 3Y auction is tentatively scheduled for March 11.
FED: US TSY 3Y NOTE AUCTION: HIGH YLD 4.300%; ALLOTMENT 41.59%
Feb-11 18:02
- US TSY 3Y NOTE AUCTION: HIGH YLD 4.300%; ALLOTMENT 41.59%
- US TSY 3Y NOTE AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 10.18% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 3Y NOTE AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 15.82% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 3Y NOTE AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 74.00% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 3Y AUCTION: BID/CVR 2.79
