MNI US Employment Insight: Solid But ‘Stale’

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Executive Summary

• The establishment survey saw stronger than expected payrolls growth in March of 228k (sa, 88k surprise) only partly offset by two-month downward revisions of -48k, along with decent breadth to job gains.
• The household survey was relatively steady, encapsulated in the slightest of rises in the unemployment rate from 4.14% to 4.15% for still below the recent high of 4.23% in November.
• The wage details offered one of the few outright soft patches of the payrolls report although hours worked avoided falling back to lows since the recovery from the GFC.
• Whilst a ‘stale’ release, the economy was at least on good footing prior to potentially major tariff-related shocks after Apr 2 “Liberation Day” announcements.
• Powell delivered a hawkish leaning speech (given the circumstances) post-payrolls and further Q&A remarks suggested there is no "Fed put" for equity markets evident, at least for now.
• With increasingly disorderly risk-off moves heading into the release, the payrolls report helped see some stabilization, but it has been short-lived after Trump administration officials dismissed recession fears over the weekend.
• As of early Monday morning, Fed Funds futures price 18bp of cuts for the next FOMC meeting in May and a cumulative 120bp for 2025, highlighting just how headline sensitive markets currently are.
• We haven’t seen any analyst view changes, with most seeing a May cut as unlikely.