MNI: UK JUL GFK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX -30

The UK XpertHR Pay Awards survey found median basic pay deals in the private sector held steady at 6% in the three months to May, unchanged for a fifth-straight rolling quarter.

• This follows last week's ONS April/May data, which signalled tighter labour market conditions as both employment and wages recorded substantial growth.
• According to the ONS, April wages rose +7.2% 3m/yoy (weekly earnings ex bonuses), a 0.4pp acceleration to a series-high increase outside the pandemic years (the series began 2001).
• Today's XpertHR report sees wages having peaked, yet remaining elevated. Sheila Attwood, XpertHR data and HR insights, noted "employers continue to report skills shortages and retention challenges ... likely to be behind some of the increases".
• Strong wage data alongside sticky inflation make uncomfortable reading for the MPC ahead of tomorrow's rate decision. UK May CPI is due at 0700 BST, whereby consensus expects a 0.3pp deceleration to +8.4% y/y. Core CPI is seen holding steady at +6.8% y/y, after jumping a surprise 0.6pp in April. Should May inflation be in line with consensus estimates, this would outpace BOE projections which anticipated a sharp fall from April.

• MNI: UK MAR-MAY MEDIAN PAY AWARDS +6% :XpertHR

1 month USD/KRW got near 1288 in the NY session on Tuesday, well above Asia Pac lows around 1276. We closed in NY at 1285.55, while onshore spot ended yesterday's session at 1280.35. These moves unwind some of the won's outperformance that was evident in the first part of trading yesterday. However, there remains a large wedge with the recent trend move higher in USD/CNH, see the chart below.

• Headwinds were present for the won from both broader USD gains (ex yen), along with weaker equity market sentiment post the Asia close. Tuesday marked the 3rd straight decline for both the MSCI IT and SOX equity market indices.
• To recap, the Kospi edged down 0.18% yesterday, while offshore investors sold $226.8mn of local shares, bringing week to date outflows to -$664.5mn.
• Today we have the first 20-days of June trade data on tap. This is out at 9am local time (01:00 BST), while ahead of that FinMin Choo will hold an export meeting about an hour prior.
• The BoK releases its quarterly financial stability report at 11am local time, while onshore media is stating that Q3 power prices may also be released.
• Earlier we had May PPI print, coming in at 0.6% y/y, from 1.6% prior.

Fig 1: USD/KRW 1 Month & USD/CNH Trends

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg