UK DATA: MNI UK Inflation Insight: October 2025
Nov-20 08:38
For the full MNI UK Inflation Insight, click here.
- Headline CPI at 3.56% in October was very close to the Bank of England forecast, coming in only 4 hundredths below BOE’s forecast. The MNI median (and Bloomberg consensus) had been looking for a 3.5%Y/Y print (rounded to 1dp), so there was a very marginal upside surprise here (but of course note that at 3.56%Y/Y, the print was close to rounding down and coming in line with consensus expectations).
- This also follows softer labour market data last week. There is still uncertainty over next week's Budget but this data does remove another potential hurdle for Governor Bailey to help deliver a December cut.
- Food prices were a tenth below BOE forecasts but 2 tenths above sellside expectations (who still look for softer food prints through the remainder of the year than the BOE). We look at how there has been little progress on food prices coming off their peak over the past few months.
- Air fares was in focus again and came in at the bottom of analyst expectations. We think that up to 0.05ppt of the downside seen from transport services in the October headline CPI print could be reversed in November (around double that for services CPI).
- Elsewhere within services, accommodation softens, tuition fees increase, cultural services reverse weakness.
- Restaurants and cafes finally see the Y/Y price growth rate increase above 4.2%, printing 4.4%Y/Y. This is something we have been very focused on as we think it is indicative of the pricing power of consumer discretionaries. We will be watching over the next couple of months as we enter the busy Christmas party season for any further acceleration.
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SWEDEN: 3Y USD Syndication Launched With USD2bln Size
Oct-21 08:36
- Size: USD2bln (in line with MNI's expected USD1.75-2bln range).
- Books: Above $8.25b (including JLM interest): Leads
- Maturity: 28 Jan, 2028
- Coupon: Short first
- Terms: SOFR MS+26
- Revised guidance SOFR MS+28 area, guidance SOFR MS, IPT SOFR MS+30 area
- Settlement: Oct. 28, 2025
Bookrunners: Barclays, Citi, Danske, SEB
Details as per Bloomberg/Market colour
GERMAN AUCTION PREVIEW: 1.30% Oct-27 Green Bobl / 2.50% Feb-35 Green Bund
Oct-21 08:16
This morning, Germany will hold its ninth and final green auction of the year.
- On offer will be E750mln of the 2-year 1.30% Oct-27 Green Bobl (ISIN: DE0001030740) alongside E750mln of the 10-year 2.50% Feb-35 Green Bund (ISIN: DE000BU3Z047).
- The combined E1.5bln size will put total 2025 German green funding at E14.5bln (versus a target of E13-15bln).
- Contrary to large parts of the German curve in the conventional segment, the German green segment has seen solid demand metrics throughout most of 2025 with no recent deterioration, with bid-to-covers ranging between 1.32x to 3.76x and bid-to-offers ranging between 1.05x and 3.75x this year. Pre-auction midprices were above the lowest accepted prices achieved at the auctions throughout the year.
- However, it is also important to note that the auction metrics for green auctions have been helped by the auctions being generally of smaller sizes than for non-Green issues.
- The 1.30% Oct-27 Green Bobl was last issued in January 2024 and saw a 2.24x bid-to-cover and a 2.14x bid-to-offer. The 2.50% Feb-35 Green Bund meanwhile was last issued more recently, in the last German green auction on September 9, with a 1.91x bid-to-cover and a 1.62x bid-to-offer.
- The next German auction will be tomorrow's E3.0bln of the 7-year 2.50% Nov-32 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU27014).
- Timing: Results will be available shortly after the bidding window closes at 10:30BST / 11:30CET.
GILTS: Curve Bull Flattens After Fiscal Data Not As Bad As Feared
Oct-21 08:16
The Gilt curve has bull flattened after September public finance data was a little better than expected. 2-year Gilt yields are little changed, with 30-year yields down 2.5bps ahead of today’s 30-year green gilt supply.
- The 5s30s curve is down 1.9bps, at 133.5bps. Initial support is Friday’s 130.6bp low.
- Gilt futures are +18 ticks at 92.85, off opening highs of 92.92. A bull cycle remains intact, with initial resistance at last Friday’s 93.17 high. This shields the 1.236 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 26 price swing at 93.30.
- This morning’s September PSNB figure was lower than expected at GBP20.2bln (vs 20.8bln cons). Taken alongside the downward revision to August, the OBR’s tracking error has fallen to GBP7.2bln. Despite PSNBex coming in GBP0.7bln below consensus it was GBP0.1bln higher than the OBR forecast. As a reminder, these will be the last numbers that will be incorporated in the OBR's EFO forecasts which will be used for the Budget. The numbers aren't as bad as had been expected, but they continued to track above OBR forecasts
- The DMO will sell GBP1.5bln nominal of the 1.50% Jul-53 green gilt this morning. See above for our full auction preview.
- This week’s MPC appearances are limited to Bailey and Breeden testifying ahead of the Lords Select Financial Services Regulation Committee today. This is not necessarily the forum for Bailey to discuss anything on monetary policy – and he’s unlikely to say any more on the topic than he did last week.
- Mann is also due to speak this evening but given she has already argued in favour of a skip, it would be very surprising if there was anything market moving or new in her remarks.
- Focus remains on tomorrow’s September inflation data.
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