MNI UK Data Preview: December 2025 Release

For the full preview click here

• Both labour market data and CPI data will be critical for the expected MPC cut on Thursday (which at the time of writing all of the sellside previews that we had seen had pencilled in a 25bp cut while markets priced 22bp).
• In order to get a cut across the line it is likely that all four members who voted for a November cut repeat their votes and likely that we need Governor Bailey to join them. There is additional focus on Lombardelli potentially joining the doves, with some also not ruling out a potential 7-2 vote.
• The labour market and CPI data could pose potential roadblocks but we remain of the view that if data is broadly in line with the BOE’s expectation, a cut is likely coming.
• From the previews we have read there is a fairly solid consensus that private regular earnings will fall to 3.8% in the 3-months to October (from 4.17%Y/Y in the 3-months to September). Bear in mind that the BOE’s Q4 forecast is for 3.51%Y/Y and if we saw a single month print around 3.4% we would be well on track to at the worst meet and likely undershoot the forecast (again).
• On the quantities side, the unemployment rate is also expected to pick up another tenth to 5.1%. Again, putting this into context, the BOE’s Q4-25 forecast was 4.97% and the November MPR projections only see a 5.1% peak print reached by Q2-26 before falling back to 5.0% or lower through the rest of the forecast. We talk through the arithmetic for this.
• For CPI, the November print is expected a tenth above the BOE’s forecast at 3.5%Y/Y. The source of the median view being above the BOE forecast is largely from petrol prices, however. The median for services CPI is 4.53%Y/Y (the BOE forecast is 4.5%) while food inflation (4.73%Y/Y) is expected to slow more than the BOE’s forecast (5.0%).