MNI SNB Preview: March 2025 - End In Sight, Question Is When

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Executive Summary:

• Markets see a 25bp cut to 0.25% at Thursday’s meeting as most likely but do acknowledge the risks of a hold, with OIS-implied odds standing around 70/30 in favour of easing
• Inflation has slowed further since the December meeting, but has printed slightly above the conditional SNB inflation forecast for Q1 so far. This, together with any potential changes to the policy statement rate outlook, could give a hint on terminal rate considerations
• CHF has proved volatile but overall stands lower in real, trade weighted terms compared to the December meeting – while the base case is for unchanged FX communications, any new rhetoric here would also warrant attention