RBNZ: MNI RBNZ Review-August 2025: RBNZ Signals Further Easing

• RES 4: 5575.00 High Mar 3 and a major resistance (cont) 
• RES 3: 5526.00 High Mar 19 / 20 (cont)
• RES 2: 5486.00/88.00 High May 20 and a bull trigger / High Jul 10
• RES 1: 5420.00 High Jul 18  
• PRICE: 5332.00 @ 06:35 BST Jul 22 
• SUP 1: 5303.00 Low Jul 16   
• SUP 2: 5281.00/5194.00 Low Jul 1 & 4 / Low Jun 23 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 5138.00 High Apr 30 
• SUP 4: 5078.00 Low Apr 30  

A bull cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains in play and - for now - short-term weakness appears corrective. Support to watch is 5281.00, the low on Jul 1 and 4. A clear break of this price point would strengthen a bearish threat. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at 5486.00, the May 20 high. It has recently been pierced, a clear breach of it would resume the bull cycle that began Apr 7 and open 5500.00.

Germany and Italy look to hold auctions this week. We pencil in a summer slowdown in issuance to E10.8bln, down from E31.7bln last week.

For the full MNI EGB Supply Daily publication with a look ahead to the next two weeks of issuance, click here.

• Germany will kick off issuance for the week this morning with a Green auction. On offer will be E500mln of the 2.30% Feb-33 Green Bund (ISIN: DE000BU3Z005) alongside E1bln of the 2.50% Feb-35 Green Bund (ISIN: DE000BU3Z047).
• Germany will return to the market tomorrow with E5bln of the 10-year 2.60% Aug-35 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2Z056) on offer.
• Italy will come to the market on Thursday with a BTP Short Term / BTPei auction. On offer will be E2.25-2.75bln of the on-the-run 2.10% Aug-27 BTP Short Term (ISIN: IT0005657330) alongside E1.25-1.50bln of the 1.10% Aug-31 BTPei (ISIN: IT0005657348).

Austria and Greece are still due to sell bills this week, while Germany, the Netherlands and France have already come to the market. We expect issuance to be E17.7bln in first round operations, up from E14.7bln last week.

• This morning, Austria will look to sell E1bln of the 3-month Oct 30, 2025 ATB and E1bln of the new 6-month Jan 29, 2026 ATB.
• Tomorrow morning, Greece will look to issue E500mln of the new 26-week Jan 23,2026 GTB.