MNI RBA Review-July 2025: Easing Bias Still Intact

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: 

• The RBA surprised the market by keeping rates on hold at 3.85%. The central bank wants to see more evidence of inflation sustainably trending towards the 2-3% target before easing more.
• RBA Governor Bullock noted stated the central bank still has an easing bias, and the split vote decision (6 in favor of the hold, 3 in favor or a cut) reflected the timing of further easing rather than the direction of rates.
• If Q2 inflation, the RBA is forecasting a 0.6%q/q outcome for the trimmed mean, prints close to expectations, then this should see an August cut delivered (all else equal). 

FOR THE FULL PUBLICATION PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING LINK: RBA Review - July 2025.pdf