MNI RBA Preview-Sept 2025: Waiting For More Information
Sep-29 06:20By: Maxine Koster
Australia
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
- The RBA decision is announced Tuesday 30 September and we believe that it will maintain its cautious approach to policy and keep rates unchanged at 3.6% in line with a unanimous Bloomberg consensus.
- Given the Board's data dependency and focus on quarterly CPI data, it is likely to want to wait for Q3 CPI on 29 October and other information before easing again.
- With ongoing significant uncertainty around global growth, rates still considered “restrictive” and domestic activity possibly starting to recover, further cuts remains likely at this stage but the timing has become less clear.
- In August, its projections had trimmed mean returning close to the band mid-point with another 25bp of easing by end-2025. A revised staff outlook is published in November.
