US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - Trump Says No To Second Harris Debate
Sep-13 12:11
- Former President Donald Trump continues his West Coast swing with a press conference in Los Angeles. Vice President Kamala Harris is still in the 'Blue Wall' where she will deliver remarks at a rally in Wilkes-Barres, Pennsylvania
- Trump appeared to rule out the prospect of a second debate with Harris. If there is no second debate, it will be the first presidential election in more than 60 years without at least two debates between the two major candidates.
- The Harris campaign issued a two-page blueprint for winning votes in rural communities, a key pillar of Trump’s strength in the Midwest.
- Trump pledged to eliminate taxes on overtime pay, adding to a populist tax platform that also includes promises to eliminate taxes on tipped earnings and all taxes on Social Security benefits.
- Two prominent nonpartisan political rating operations have shifted their ratings for the crucial Montana Senate race towards the Republican challenger, Tim Sheehy, reflecting a growing consensus that the GOP is heavily favoured to flip control of the Senate.
- The conservative House Freedom Caucus has narrowed its search for its next leader to two candidates.
- President Biden is expected to discuss relaxing restrictions on Ukraine's use of long-range weapons in a White House bilat with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer today.
- The United States Trade Representative has finalised action on China tariffs following the competition of a statutory four-year review.
- Poll of the Day: Harris maintains her lead amongst registered voters in an early post-debate poll.
Full article: US Daily Brief
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Aug-14 12:08
SFIZ4 95.15/95.40/95.80/96.05c condor trades for 15.75 in 2k.
US TSYS: /STIR: Hawkish CPI Would Present Greatest Risk To Market Positioning
Aug-14 12:03
A firmer-than-expected CPI outcome seems to present the greatest risk to prevailing market positioning ahead of today’s data.
- Market positioning in Tsys seems relatively long, based on both the J.P.Morgan all client survey and inferences drawn from daily futures OI data, albeit off recent extremes.
- STIR positioning also seems long/received into the data.
- Last week’s risk-off dovish repricing seemed overstretched and we don’t expect a retest in the case of a dovish data outcome later today.
- Fed funds futures currently price ~40bp of cuts through the Sep FOMC & ~108bp through the Dec meeting vs. ~70bp & ~148bp at one stage on Monday 5 August.
- Click for our full CPI preview.
STIR: BLOCK/Screen: Sep'24 SOFR Call Spread
Aug-14 11:57
- 13,250 SFRU4 95.37/95.50 call spds, 3.0 vs. SFRU4 at 95.16/0.06%
