MNI NBP WATCH: Rates Unchanged As Inflation Approaches Target

The National Bank of Poland left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4% as expected on Wednesday, the Bank said, leaving much of its guidance unchanged while noting evidence inflation is returning to target.

"Incoming information suggests that CPI inflation may decrease in 2026 Q1 and remain at a level consistent with the NBP inflation target in the coming quarters," the Bank said, holding rates for a second consecutive meeting.

Flash estimates suggest annual CPI inflation declined to 2.4% in December 2025, versus 2.5% in November, it said in a statement.

The Bank repeated verbatim its January guidance that "further decisions of the Council will depend on incoming information regarding prospects for inflation and economic activity," while again saying that risk factors for the inflation outlook include fiscal policy, a pickup in demand or wage growth, the macroeconomic situation abroad, and changes in global commodity prices. (See MNI NBP WATCH: Governor's Dovish Remarks Make Feb Meeting Live)

Wage growth in the enterprise sector slowed over the previous year amid a fall in employment, the Bank said, citing labour market data. GDP growth in 2025 was 3.6%, indicating "economic growth in 2025 Q4 was probably close to that observed in 2025 Q3."