MNI: Job Worries Mount, Short-Term Inflation Views Rise-NY Fed

The New York Fed's median measure of short-term consumer inflation expectations ticked up two tenths in December, while job finding expectations declined to a series low and job loss expectations worsened, according to the bank's Survey of Consumer Expectations. 

One-year-ahead inflation expectations increased to 3.42%, three-year-ahead inflation expectations were unmoved at 3.00%, and five-year-ahead inflation expectations were steady at 2.98%, the survey said. (See: MNI INTERVIEW: Fed’s Miran Sees Substantial Rate Cuts In 2026) 

The mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost fell by 4.2ppts to 43.1%, a new series low, while the mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months increased by 1.4ppts to 15.2%, above the 12-month trailing average of 14.3%. Still, median expected growth in household income increased by 0.1ppt to 3.0% in December, moving just above its 12-month trailing average of 2.9%.

Delinquency expectations deteriorated to the highest level since the onset of the pandemic, according to the survey.