MNI INTERVIEW: Global Competition Caps Norway Wages-Stats Head

Global competition is increasingly capping wage growth across the different sectors of Norway’s economy, with data indicating that the country lost competitiveness in 2025, Statistics Norway head Geir Axelsen told MNI.

"More and more parts of the economy [are] exposed [to] international competition," Axelsen said in an interview.

"Even the domestic service sector is more and more exposed to competition from other countries, from internet shopping or whatever," he noted.

The country’s effective wage costs rose last year despite a relatively weak Norwegian currency, Axelsen said.

"The relative hourly labour costs between Norwegian manufacturing and the manufacturing sectors of trading partners measured in a common currency increased by 1.6% in 2025," he said, citing provisional data.

In its December Monetary Policy Report, Norges Bank anticipated annual wage growth of 4.2% this year, down from its estimate of 4.9% for 2025. Norges Bank also predicted that inflation will be 2.4% on the standard CPI measure in 2026, though the technical advisory committee for wage settlements, the TBU, of which Axelsen is also chair, revealed in its February report that it expects inflation in 2026 to be higher at 3.0%.

The committee's inflation estimate and analysis provide a basis for collective pay negotiations and it will update its estimate in March.

The social "partners have to answer for themselves, but my clear understanding, is that these numbers are trusted. They represent, I would say, an independent starting point.”

COLLECTIVE SETTLEMENTS A RELIABLE GUIDE

The collective wage settlements, which begin in manufacturing industries whose awards then form the basis for subsequent agreements, still appear to be a reliable guide to overall wage growth in the country, Axelsen said.

"Statistics Norway, or the central bank, or Ministry of Finance, I think all of them have ... a trend that says that nominal wages will be lower, at least not higher," said Axelsen, who is not permitted to provide any exact prediction for wage settlements.

"But for me, in my role as head of this committee, that's kind of the one number I will never have a view on, because the whole job is to provide the ... basis for the negotiating partners, and they will decide," he said.

Statistics Norway looked at wage developments inside and outside the collective agreements and "the conclusion from that analysis was that it's quite stable and that the overall wage growth in the economy is in line with the wage growth that we'll see in the collective bargaining areas," he said.

The TBU’s 3.0% inflation forecast came as the Norges Bank’s target measure for inflation, CPI-ATE, delivered a sharp upside surprise in January, running at an annual 3.4% versus the central bank’s expectations for 2.9% and quashing expectations of a near-term rate cut. In its December report, Norges Bank foresaw CPI-ATE inflation of 2.7% in all of 2026. (See MNI NORGES WATCH: Holds In Jan, Still In No Hurry To Cut)