MNI Global Week Ahead - US CPI and UK Labour Market Data

May-09 17:15By: Emil Lundh and 1 more...

See below for the key events across developed and emerging markets next week:

SATURDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEK - China April Inflation and Lending Data

Over the weekend China will release their April CPI and PPI with both forecast to remain negative. CPI in March printed at -0.1 and market forecasts suggest that April will remain moderately negative. The risks remain to the downside as the impacts from tariffs filter through to the broader economy. Food prices have been mixed and service price inflation has diminished. PPI has been negative since October 2022 and points to the challenges that producers have in terms of passing on their costs. March saw a further acceleration of price declines at the factory gate and given the uncertainty created by the trade war, market forecasts are for a further decline of -2.8%. New lending data is out also and typically falls in April as the front loading in Quarter 1 subsides. The measures announced this week should not show up in the data release. Key to watch will be updates on where regional governments are in terms of their bond issuance relative to annual targets.

MONDAY / TUESDAY - BOE Watchers' Conference and Mar/Apr Labour Market Data

After this week's 25bp cut but surprising vote breakdown from the Bank of England, we will hear from 8/9 MPC members over the next week. Monday will be the highlight with Lombardelli, Greene, Mann and Taylor all taking part in the BOE Watchers' conference (along with former Governor King, former Deputy Governor Tucker and former MPC member Wadhwani). We will be watching for any hints in particular about future voting intentions, whether there is any repeat of the line from Pill in the Agents' Briefing that if there are external shocks the pace of cuts could be adjusted. The week ahead also sees labour market data for March released on Tuesday. The focus here will be on the wage data with private sector regular pay forecast by the BOE at 5.76%Y/Y.

TUESDAY - US April CPI

The week’s US data calendar is highlighted by CPI inflation on Tuesday although PPI inflation and retail sales reports on Thursday are in close second. All three releases are going to be important, offering further hard data for April in the first month under reciprocal tariffs. What’s more, PPI and retail sales are followed by Fed Chair Powell just ten minutes after their release (more on that below). Core CPI inflation is seen accelerating to 0.3% M/M in April, with six unrounded estimates we’ve seen to date averaging 0.27% M/M. A potential for a ‘low’ 0.3% aside, it’s still likely a swift acceleration from a particularly soft 0.06% M/M in March which was in large part down to surprisingly abrupt declines in lodging away from home (-3.5%) and airfare (-5.3%) prices. This lodging weakness carried over to core PCE inflation back in March, at just 0.03% M/M after a particularly strong 0.50% M/M in February in a large wedge with core CPI at 0.23% M/M. Markets currently price a next Fed cut with the September FOMC meeting.

WEDNESDAY - Australia Q1 Wage Price Index

The Q1 Wage Price Index prints on May 14 and is unlikely to show a material change in the pace of pay inflation. It rose 0.7% q/q to be up 3.2% y/y in Q4 down from 4.2% the previous Q4. Slower growth and lower inflation have helped to bring wage pressures down but the RBA forecast it to pickup to 3.4% y/y in Q2 in its February staff projections.

THURSDAY - US PPI, Retail Sales and Powell

Core PCE implications will then be watched closely in Thursday’s PPI report, and we expect with additional focus on portfolio management after last month’s huge upward revision to February. Retail sales, whilst only reported in nominal terms, will offer a keenly awaited look at consumer behavior. Real spending moderated to 1.8% annualized in Q1 after 4.0% in Q4 despite likely tariff front-running, with April a good test of how much discretionary spending was pulled forward. Finally, Powell provides “Opening Remarks” at the Second Thomas Laubach Research Conference, although he’s allotted twenty minutes so there is scope for more substantive remarks than you’d usually expect. His message at Wednesday’s FOMC press conference was one firmly of being in no hurry to cut rates amidst huge uncertainty. He also appeared to put more weight on hard data over soft indicators that appear more stagflationary in nature.

THURSDAY - Eurozone National Accounts 2nd Estimate

Although the median analyst expects the second estimate of Eurozone Q1 GDP to confirm the 0.4% Q/Q rounded flash estimate, we shouldn't rule out a downward revision to 0.3%. On an unrounded basis, the flash estimate was 0.352%, only a shade away from rounding to the downside. In any case, the print should be above the ECB's 0.2% forecast from the March projection round. A reminder that the data was skewed to the upside by tariff front-loading, particularly in Ireland. Sentiment data points to weak growth momentum in Q2, as US tariffs start to kick in and associated uncertainty continues to weigh. The second release also includes a first look at Q1 employment and real productivity per employee data. The ECB's projects employment growth at 0.1% Q/Q (vs 0.2% prior) and labour productivity at 0.9% Y/Y (vs 0.8% prior). Although the unemployment rate remains at all-time lows of 6.2%, the EC's expected employment indicator has steadily deteriorated since the end of 2023. Meanwhile, productivity data has shown tentative signs of levelling out and starting to recover in recent quarters.

THURSDAY - Banxico Decision

Banxico is widely expected to deliver another 50bp policy rate cut to 8.50% next week, amid mounting concerns about the growth outlook. This would be the third consecutive 50bp move and recent peso resilience should bolster the central bank's confidence in its decision.
Banxico Governor Rodriguez and Deputy Governor Heath have both spoken this week, noting that further interest cuts are anticipated should inflation remain stable. While latest inflation data came in marginally above expectations, growth risks related to tariff uncertainty, are likely to see the Board follow through on its previous guidance for a further 50bp move.

FRIDAY - Japan Q1 Flash GDP Data

The preliminary Q1 GDP report is forecast to show growth fell (consensus is -0.1%q/q). Soft points are expected in terms of barely positive consumer spending, while net exports are expected to be a drag, after adding to growth in Q4 last year. A growth dip would fit with the BoJ's recent caution around further policy adjustments, as it lowered its growth and inflation forecast at the most recent policy meeting.

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Country	Event
09/05/2025	2345/1945		US	St. Louis Fed's Alberto Musalem
09/05/2025	2345/1945		US	Fed Governor Michelle Bowman
10/05/2025	2345/0145		EU	ECB's Schnabel on Monetary Policy Panel
09/05/2025	2345/1945		US	Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack
09/05/2025	2345/1945		US	Fed Governor Lisa Cook
10/05/2025	0130/0930	***	CN	CPI
10/05/2025	0130/0930	***	CN	Producer Price Index
12/05/2025	2301/0001	**	GB	KPMG/REC Jobs Report
12/05/2025	0500/1400		JP	Economy Watchers Survey
12/05/2025	0800/0900		GB	BOE Lombardelli At BOE Bank Watcher's Conference
12/05/2025	1030/1130		GB	BOE Greene On Monetary policy outlook
12/05/2025	-	***	CN	Money Supply
12/05/2025	-	***	CN	New Loans
12/05/2025	-	***	CN	Social Financing
12/05/2025	-		EU	ECB's Cipollone At Eurogroup Meeting
12/05/2025	1250/1350		GB	BOE Mann On Neutral Rate Of Interest
12/05/2025	1425/1025		US	Fed Governor Adriana Kugler
12/05/2025	1430/1530		GB	DMO likely to publish FQ2 consultation agenda
12/05/2025	1530/1130	*	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
12/05/2025	1530/1130	*	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
12/05/2025	1600/1200	***	US	USDA Crop Estimates - WASDE
12/05/2025	1600/1700		GB	BOE Taylor Fireside Chat With Ed Balls
12/05/2025	1800/1400	**	US	Treasury Budget
13/05/2025	2301/0001	*	GB	BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor
13/05/2025	0600/0700	***	GB	Labour Market Survey
13/05/2025	0900/1100	***	DE	ZEW Current Expectations Index
13/05/2025	0900/1000	*	GB	Index Linked Gilt Outright Auction Result
13/05/2025	0900/1000	*	GB	Index Linked Gilt Outright Auction Result
13/05/2025	1000/0600	**	US	NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
13/05/2025	-		EU	ECB's De Guindos At ECOFIN Meeting
13/05/2025	1230/0830	***	US	CPI
13/05/2025	1255/0855	**	US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
13/05/2025	1530/1130	**	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 52 Week Bill
14/05/2025	0130/1130	***	AU	Quarterly wage price index
14/05/2025	0600/0800	***	SE	Final Inflation Report
14/05/2025	0600/0800	***	DE	HICP (f)
14/05/2025	0700/0900	***	ES	HICP (f)
14/05/2025	0715/0815		GB	BOE Breeden At ISDA Conference
14/05/2025	0900/1000	**	GB	Gilt Outright Auction Result
14/05/2025	0915/0515		US	Fed Governor Christopher Waller
14/05/2025	1100/0700	**	US	MBA Weekly Applications Index
14/05/2025	1230/0830	*	CA	Building Permits
14/05/2025	1240/1440		EU	ECB's Cipollone On Liquidity Issues Panel
14/05/2025	1310/0910		US	Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson
14/05/2025	1430/1030	**	US	DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
14/05/2025	2140/1740		US	San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly
15/05/2025	0130/1130	***	AU	Labor Force Survey
15/05/2025	0600/0700	**	GB	UK Monthly GDP
15/05/2025	0600/0700	**	GB	Index of Services
15/05/2025	0600/0700	***	GB	Index of Production
15/05/2025	0600/0700	**	GB	Output in the Construction Industry
15/05/2025	0600/0700	***	GB	GDP First Estimate
15/05/2025	0600/0800	**	NO	Norway GDP
15/05/2025	0645/0845	***	FR	HICP (f)
15/05/2025	0700/0900		CH	Flash GDP
15/05/2025	0700/0900		EU	ECB's Cipollone at Payments Forum
15/05/2025	0750/0950		EU	ECB's Elderson At Green Finance Conference
15/05/2025	0900/1100	**	EU	Industrial Production
15/05/2025	0900/1100	***	EU	GDP (p)
15/05/2025	1015/1215		EU	ECB's De Guindos At ISDA Meeting
15/05/2025	1130/1330		EU	ECB's Cipollone In Digital Currency Fireside Chat
15/05/2025	1215/0815	**	CA	CMHC Housing Starts
15/05/2025	1230/0830	***	US	Jobless Claims
15/05/2025	1230/0830	**	US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
15/05/2025	1230/0830	**	CA	Monthly Survey of Manufacturing
15/05/2025	1230/0830	**	CA	Wholesale Trade
15/05/2025	1230/0830	***	US	Retail Sales
15/05/2025	1230/0830	***	US	PPI
15/05/2025	1230/0830	**	US	Empire State Manufacturing Survey
15/05/2025	1230/0830	**	US	Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
15/05/2025	1240/0840		US	Fed Chair Jerome Powell
15/05/2025	1300/0900	*	CA	CREA Existing Home Sales
15/05/2025	1315/0915	***	US	Industrial Production
15/05/2025	1400/1000	*	US	Business Inventories
15/05/2025	1400/1000	**	US	NAHB Home Builder Index
15/05/2025	1400/1500		GB	BOE Dhingra At New Economics Foundation conference
15/05/2025	1430/1030	**	US	Natural Gas Stocks
15/05/2025	1800/1400	***	MX	Mexico Interest Rate
15/05/2025	1805/1405		US	Fed Governor Michael Barr
16/05/2025	2350/0850	***	JP	GDP
16/05/2025	0430/1330	**	JP	Industrial Production
16/05/2025	0730/0930		EU	ECB's Cipollone At EU Cyber Resilience Board Meeting
16/05/2025	0800/1000	***	IT	HICP (f)
16/05/2025	0900/1100	*	EU	Trade Balance
16/05/2025	1230/0830	*	CA	International Canadian Transaction in Securities
16/05/2025	1230/0830	***	US	Housing Starts
16/05/2025	1230/0830	**	US	Import/Export Price Index
16/05/2025	1400/1000	***	US	U. Mich. Survey of Consumers
16/05/2025	1400/1000	**	US	University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Inflation Expectation
16/05/2025	1500/1700		EU	ECB's Lane On Central Bank Communication Panel
16/05/2025	1700/1300	**	US	Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly
16/05/2025	1700/1300	**	US	Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly
16/05/2025	1700/1300	**	US	Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly
16/05/2025	2000/1600	**	US	TICS