MNI Global Week Ahead: Central Banks, UST Refunding and Data

Jul-25 18:49By: Emil Lundh

See below for the key events in developed and emerging markets next week:

Developed Markets

MONDAY / WEDNESDAY - US Quarterly Refunding

Treasury’s August Refunding round begins on Monday July 28 at 3pm ET with the latest financing estimates, followed on Wednesday July 30 at 8:30am ET by the announcement of upcoming auction sizes and any adjustment to guidance, as well as buyback operation details for the coming quarter. There is no expectation of any change in nominal Treasury coupon sizes to the coming quarter, which will mark 6 consecutive Refundings of no increase. However there will be significant attention on other aspects, including the expected financing requirements, changes to the buyback program, and alterations to future issuance guidance. We outline MNI’s general expectations below, followed by a selection of analyst previews. We note that there is more variation than usual among analysts’ expectations, particularly on buybacks and on future auction size increases.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY - Eurozone Q2 Flash GDP, July Flash Inflation

Next week's Eurozone data comes off the heels of a more hawkish-than-expected July ECB press conference, which has reduced the implied probability of a 25bp cut in September to less than 20% (from ~40% prior to the decision). However, with the ECB Governing Council seemingly increasingly fatigued by volatile tariff-related headlines, the incoming data will be all the more important in determining the likely terminal rate. In the words of Lagarde yesterday: "our collective determination is number one, keep inflation at 2% medium term target. Number two, operate on a meeting-by-meeting basis. Number three, be data dependent, and there will be plenty of that in the coming months"

Eurozone flash Q2 GDP is due on Wednesday, with the median analyst pencilling in a 0.0% reading (range -0.3% to +0.6%). If realised, this would be two tenths below the ECB's forecast from the June projection round. ECB President Lagarde did re-iterate that growth risks were tilted to the downside at the July press conference, particularly with trade policy uncertainty still prevalent throughout the quarter. However, this was accompanied by relatively more optimistic remarks on the 0.6% Q/Q print in Q1. While certainly skewed higher by substantial front-loading of Irish pharmaceutical exports in anticipation of US tariffs, she noted that GDP was also supported by "increased consumption and increased investment, and not only attributable to Ireland"...."so growth is developing mostly, if not a little better than in line with our expectations". Across countries, growth is expected to once again be strongest in Spain (0.6% Q/Q), with more subdued readings in Italy (0.2%), Germany (-0.1%) and France (0.1%). Irish data may once again be significant for the Eurozone-wide print, but there is no consensus for Monday's release (prior 7.4% Q/Q).

The July flash inflation round is also due next week, with early consensus looking for an unchanged core rate at 2.3% Y/Y, but for headline inflation to slip back to 1.9% (vs 2.0% prior).

WEDNESDAY - Australia Q2 CPI

The recent on hold outcome from the RBA was largely due to the central bank needing to see more evidence that inflation was sustainably returning to its 2-3% target range. The Q2 print next week looms large in terms of the near term RBA outlook. Market expectations are for headline pressures to remain fairly benign, but larger focus will be on the core prints particularly the trimmed mean. A print that leaves the annual pace close to 3%y/y may see the RBA remain on hold in August. Market forecasts are for a 2.7%y/y outcome versus 2.9% in Q1.

WEDNESDAY - BOJ Decision

Heading into this week, BoJ watchers largely expected the central bank to raise its benchmark interest rate at either the October or January meeting. The key debate was whether the anticipated fiscal expansion would bring that timing forward. Opinions were divided: some argued it would accelerate a hike, others said it could delay it, while many viewed the impact as neutral or difficult to assess. While there appears to be little immediate pressure to raise rates, this week’s announcement of a trade deal between Japan and the U.S. may nudge the BoJ closer to a hike by improving the outlook for economic conditions. This view is supported by recent comments from BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida, who said that "uncertainty has receded, and this of course means that the likelihood has risen" for the Bank’s forecasts to be met. However, he also cautioned that "uncertainty remains," with several major economies still engaged in trade negotiations.

WEDNESDAY - BOC Decision

The Bank of Canada is set to hold its benchmark policy rate at 2.75% for a 3rd straight meeting on July 30. We have had several data points reinforce a patient approach to further moves. In particular, stronger-than-expected labor market data and stubbornly high core inflation data for June saw expectations for a July cut evaporate. Attention will be on the BOC's updated quarterly forecasts for the extent they signal lessened concern over the economic trajectory. The press conference with Governor Macklem will be eyed for the Bank's latest assessment of the risks to inflation and activity amid the significant uncertainty generated by the US-Canada trade conflict, and ahead of the August 1 deadline set by US President Trump for a trade deal absent which tariffs on Canadian goods rise significantly.

WEDNESDAY - Fed Decision

With the Fed almost certain to hold the funds rate at 4.25-4.50% again at the July 29-30 meeting, focus will be on the degree to which the Committee signals openness to rate cuts resuming in the fall. The policy statement is unlikely to see meaningful changes, though Governor Waller and Vice Chair Bowman are widely expected to dissent in favor of a rate cut. Chair Powell is likely to repeat many of his messages from the prior meeting, noting that the Committee's median expectation is for two cuts by year-end albeit dependent on the data in the interim. He is likely to point out that the Committee will see two inflation and employment reports by the next meeting in September, with more clarity on the impact of tariffs on consumer prices and activity, and potentially less uncertainty over the policy outlook.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY - US Q2 GDP Advance, June PCE, July NFPs

Next week sees a return of a heavier data calendar, with some select highlights being the advance Q2 GDP release on the day of the FOMC decision, the monthly PCE report for June on Thursday and then nonfarm payrolls and ISM manufacturing on Friday.

Real GDP growth is still seen bouncing in Q2 after a heavily distorted slide in Q1 but tracking estimates are looking much less impressive than earlier in the quarter. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow stood at 2.4% annualized in its penultimate update as opposed to being firmly in the 3-4% range ahead of the June FOMC (with its refreshed forecasts). If accurate, it would mark little ‘catch-up’ after the -0.5% Q1, when a surge in imports dragged a huge -4.6pp, as it would return to the 2.4% seen in Q4. Thursday's monthly PCE report for June will be watched for signs of consumer strength after a surprisingly disappointing May, when real spending dropped -0.3% M/M. With personal consumption growth of only 0.5% annualized in Q1 despite potential tariff front-running, continued lethargy would be notable. On the inflation side, the average unrounded core PCE estimate we have seen after the collection of CPI, PPI and import prices stands at circa 0.28% M/M, following 0.18% M/M in May which could see a marginal upward revision.

Friday’s nonfarm payrolls growth is currently expected at 110k in June after a surprisingly robust 147k in May along with its rare upward revisions. There was a sizeable caveat of a 73k increase in government payrolls in May that could have been boosted by education-related seasonality, which if true would reverse in June. The unemployment rate will continue to be watched closely as a barometer of broad labor market tightness amidst significant immigration curbs. Bloomberg consensus currently looks for 4.2% at a rate that would continue to broadly plateau in the 4.0-4.25% range seen ever since last July. May’s release surprised lower at 4.11% for a notable pullback from the recent high of 4.244% in April. As things stand, a faster-than-expected deterioration will be required for the final six months of the year to reach the FOMC's June Q4 median projection of 4.5%.

Emerging Markets

TUESDAY - BCCh Decision (Chile)

The BCCh is widely expected to resume its easing cycle in July, after four consecutive holds, with a 25bp policy rate cut to 4.75%. The central bank has struck a more dovish tone in recent weeks and has already discussed the option of cutting rates at each of the last two MPC meetings, opting to remain cautious in the face of heightened external uncertainties. While the latest escalation of trade tensions could still prompt the central bank to remain cautious for another meeting, recent weaker-than-expected inflation and economic activity data look to have opened the door to a fresh rate cut.

WEDNESDAY - Copom Decision (Brazil)

Analysts are unanimous in expecting the Copom to leave the Selic rate unchanged at 15.00%, after it signalled a pause in the tightening cycle last month to assess the impact of previous rate hikes. Although inflation has begun to edge lower, it remains well above target, and the Board is still concerned about unanchored inflation expectations, despite a recent improvement. With the labour market remaining tight as well, rate cuts are still unlikely to be discussed by the Board at this juncture. Indeed, with officials continuing to stress the high for longer message to ensure the re-anchoring of inflation expectations, guidance is still likely to emphasise the likelihood of an extended pause ahead.

THURSDAY - SARB Decision (South Africa)

The SARB is expected to cut its key repo rate by 25bps to 7.00%, with policymakers set to consider tame price growth, declining inflation expectations and the need to support the economy. Inflation has now been below the 4.5% midpoint of the central bank's target range since August, while the latest figures came in a touch below analyst expectations. Money markets continue to indicate that a 25bp cut is close to fully priced in at next week’s meeting, with 9 of the 11 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg looking for a 25bp easing step.

THURSDAY - BanRep Decision (Colombia)

Following a split vote to remain on hold last month, the BanRep Board is expected to lean towards a renewed 25bp rate cut in July in what looks set to be another tight decision. Recent softer-than-expected inflation data and further gains in the Colombian peso support the case to deliver a cautious cut. However, the decision is likely to be split again, with a wary minority arguing to remain on hold amid ongoing fiscal and external uncertainties

THURSDAY / FRIDAY - China July PMIs

Next week sees the release of the official China PMIs for July. The manufacturing PMI has printed below 50 for the last three months and may struggle to rise above 50 again as summer holidays begin and no sign of policy changes that will support the state owned enterprises. The services PMI has maintained an above 5 result consistently and could see a modest uptick on summer holiday spending. Soon after that S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (formerly known as the CAIXIN) will be released and it is anticipated that manufacturing in the private sector could moderate but remain in expansion.

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Country	Event
25/07/2025	1500/1100		CA	Finance Dept monthly Fiscal Monitor (expected)
25/07/2025	1700/1300	**	US	Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly
25/07/2025	1700/1300	**	US	Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly
28/07/2025	1000/1100	**	GB	CBI Distributive Trades
28/07/2025	1400/1000	**	US	housing vacancies
28/07/2025	1430/1030	**	US	Dallas Fed manufacturing survey
28/07/2025	1530/1130	*	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Note
28/07/2025	1530/1130	*	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
28/07/2025	1700/1300	*	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 5 Year Note
28/07/2025	1700/1300	*	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
28/07/2025	-		US	FOMC Meeting
29/07/2025	2301/0001	*	GB	BRC Monthly Shop Price Index
29/07/2025	0600/0800		SE	Flash Quarterly GDP Indicator
29/07/2025	0700/0900	***	ES	GDP (p)
29/07/2025	0800/1000	**	EU	ECB Consumer Expectations Survey
29/07/2025	0830/0930	**	GB	BOE Lending to Individuals
29/07/2025	0830/0930	**	GB	BOE M4
29/07/2025	0900/1000	**	GB	Gilt Outright Auction Result
29/07/2025	1230/0830	**	US	Advance Trade, Advance Business Inventories
29/07/2025	1255/0855	**	US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
29/07/2025	1300/0900	**	US	S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
29/07/2025	1300/0900	**	US	FHFA Home Price Index
29/07/2025	1300/0900	**	US	FHFA Home Price Index
29/07/2025	1400/1000	***	US	Conference Board Consumer Confidence
29/07/2025	1400/1000	***	US	JOLTS jobs opening level
29/07/2025	1400/1000	***	US	JOLTS quits Rate
29/07/2025	1430/1030	**	US	Dallas Fed Services Survey
29/07/2025	1530/1130	**	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Floating Rate Note
29/07/2025	1700/1300	**	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 7 Year Note
30/07/2025	-		JP	Bank of Japan Meeting
30/07/2025	0130/1130	***	AU	CPI inflation
30/07/2025	0130/1130	***	AU	CPI Inflation Monthly
30/07/2025	0530/0730	***	FR	GDP (p)
30/07/2025	0530/0730	**	FR	Consumer Spending
30/07/2025	0600/0800	**	SE	Retail Sales
30/07/2025	0600/0800	**	DE	Retail Sales
30/07/2025	0600/1400	**	CN	MNI China Money Market Index (MMI)
30/07/2025	0700/0900	**	SE	Economic Tendency Indicator
30/07/2025	0700/0900	***	ES	HICP (p)
30/07/2025	0700/0900	**	CH	KOF Economic Barometer
30/07/2025	0800/1000	***	DE	GDP (p)
30/07/2025	0800/1000	***	IT	GDP (p)
30/07/2025	0800/1000		EU	ECB Wage Tracker
30/07/2025	0900/1100	*	EU	Consumer Confidence, Industrial Sentiment
30/07/2025	1100/0700	**	US	MBA Weekly Applications Index
30/07/2025	1215/0815	***	US	ADP Employment Report
30/07/2025	1230/0830	***	US	GDP / PCE Quarterly
30/07/2025	1230/0830	***	US	Treasury Quarterly Refunding
30/07/2025	1345/0945	***	CA	Bank of Canada Policy Decision
30/07/2025	1400/1000	**	US	NAR Pending Home Sales
30/07/2025	1430/1030	**	US	DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
30/07/2025	1430/1030		CA	BOC press conference
30/07/2025	1430/1030	**	US	US DOE Petroleum Supply
30/07/2025	1800/1400	***	US	FOMC Statement
31/07/2025	2350/0850	*	JP	Retail Sales (p)
31/07/2025	2350/0850	**	JP	Industrial Production
31/07/2025	0130/0930	***	CN	CFLP Manufacturing PMI
31/07/2025	0130/0930	**	CN	CFLP Non-Manufacturing PMI
31/07/2025	0130/1130	*	AU	Building Approvals
31/07/2025	0130/1130	**	AU	Retail Trade
31/07/2025	0130/1130	***	AU	Retail trade quarterly
31/07/2025	0130/1130	**	AU	Trade price indexes
31/07/2025	0200/1100	***	JP	BOJ Policy Rate Announcement
31/07/2025	0600/0800	**	DE	Import/Export Prices
31/07/2025	0630/0830	**	CH	Retail Sales
31/07/2025	0645/0845	***	FR	HICP (p)
31/07/2025	0645/0845	**	FR	PPI
31/07/2025	0755/0955	**	DE	Unemployment
31/07/2025	0800/1000	***	DE	Bavaria CPI
31/07/2025	0800/1000	***	DE	North Rhine Westphalia CPI
31/07/2025	0800/1000	***	DE	Baden Wuerttemberg CPI
31/07/2025	0900/1100	**	EU	Unemployment
31/07/2025	0900/1100	***	IT	HICP (p)
31/07/2025	1000/1200	**	IT	PPI
31/07/2025	1200/1400	***	DE	HICP (p)
31/07/2025	1230/0830	***	US	Jobless Claims
31/07/2025	1230/0830	**	US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
31/07/2025	1230/0830	*	CA	Payroll employment
31/07/2025	1230/0830	***	US	Personal Income and Consumption
31/07/2025	1230/0830	***	US	Employment Cost Index
31/07/2025	1230/0830	***	CA	Gross Domestic Product by Industry
31/07/2025	1342/0942	***	US	MNI Chicago PMI
31/07/2025	1430/1030	**	US	Natural Gas Stocks
01/08/2025	2300/0900	**	AU	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)
01/08/2025	2330/0830	*	JP	Labor Force Survey
01/08/2025	0030/0930	**	JP	S&P Global Final Japan Manufacturing PMI
01/08/2025	0130/1130	*	AU	Producer price index q/q
01/08/2025	0145/0945	**	CN	S&P Global Final China Manufacturing PMI
01/08/2025	0715/0915	**	ES	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)
01/08/2025	0745/0945	**	IT	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)
01/08/2025	0750/0950	**	FR	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)
01/08/2025	0755/0955	**	DE	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)
01/08/2025	0800/1000	*	IT	Retail Sales
01/08/2025	0800/1000	**	EU	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)
01/08/2025	0830/0930	**	GB	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final)
01/08/2025	0900/1100	***	EU	HICP (p)
01/08/2025	-	***	US	Domestic-Made Vehicle Sales
01/08/2025	1230/0830	***	US	Employment Report
01/08/2025	1345/0945	***	US	S&P Global Manufacturing Index (final)
01/08/2025	1400/1000	***	US	ISM Manufacturing Index
01/08/2025	1400/1000	*	US	Construction Spending
01/08/2025	1400/1000	***	US	U. Mich. Survey of Consumers
01/08/2025	1400/1000	**	US	University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Inflation Expectation
01/08/2025	1700/1300	**	US	Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly
01/08/2025	1700/1300	**	US	Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly
04/08/2025	-		GB	Bank of England Meeting
04/08/2025	0630/0830	***	CH	CPI
04/08/2025	0700/0300	*	TR	Turkey CPI
04/08/2025	1400/1000	**	US	Factory New Orders
05/08/2025	2300/0900	*	AU	S&P Global Final Australia Services PMI
05/08/2025	2300/0900	**	AU	S&P Global Final Australia Composite PMI
05/08/2025	0030/0930	**	JP	S&P Global Final Japan Services PMI
05/08/2025	0030/0930	**	JP	S&P Global Final Japan Composite PMI
05/08/2025	0145/0945	**	CN	S&P Global Final China Services PMI
05/08/2025	0145/0945	**	CN	S&P Global Final China Composite PMI
05/08/2025	0645/0845	*	FR	Industrial Production
05/08/2025	0700/0900	**	ES	Industrial Production
05/08/2025	0715/0915	**	ES	S&P Global Services PMI (f)
05/08/2025	0715/0915	**	ES	S&P Global Composite PMI (final)
05/08/2025	0745/0945	**	IT	S&P Global Services PMI (f)
05/08/2025	0745/0945	**	IT	S&P Global Composite PMI (final)
05/08/2025	0750/0950	**	FR	S&P Global Services PMI (f)
05/08/2025	0750/0950	**	FR	S&P Global Composite PMI (final)
05/08/2025	0755/0955	**	DE	S&P Global Services PMI (f)
05/08/2025	0755/0955	**	DE	S&P Global Composite PMI (final)
05/08/2025	0800/1000	**	EU	S&P Global Services PMI (f)
05/08/2025	0800/1000	**	EU	S&P Global Composite PMI (final)
05/08/2025	0830/0930	**	GB	S&P Global Services PMI (Final)
05/08/2025	0830/0930	***	GB	S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Composite PMI
05/08/2025	0900/1100	**	EU	PPI
05/08/2025	0900/1000	**	GB	Gilt Outright Auction Result
05/08/2025	1230/0830	**	US	Trade Balance
05/08/2025	1230/0830	**	CA	International Merchandise Trade (Trade Balance)
05/08/2025	1230/0830	**	US	Trade Balance
05/08/2025	1255/0855	**	US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
05/08/2025	1345/0945	***	US	S&P Global Services Index (final)
05/08/2025	1345/0945	***	US	S&P Global US Final Composite PMI
05/08/2025	1400/1000	***	US	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
06/08/2025	2330/0830	**	JP	average wages (p)
06/08/2025	0600/0800	**	DE	Manufacturing Orders
06/08/2025	0730/0930	**	EU	S&P Global Final Eurozone Construction PMI
06/08/2025	0800/1000	*	IT	Industrial Production
06/08/2025	0830/0930	**	GB	S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI
06/08/2025	0900/1100	**	EU	Retail Sales
06/08/2025	1100/0700	**	US	MBA Weekly Applications Index
06/08/2025	1430/1030	**	US	DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
06/08/2025	1430/1030	**	US	US DOE Petroleum Supply
06/08/2025	1910/1510		US	San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly
07/08/2025	0130/1130	**	AU	Trade Balance
07/08/2025	0600/0800	**	DE	Trade Balance
07/08/2025	0600/0800	**	DE	Industrial Production
07/08/2025	0600/0800	***	SE	Flash Inflation Report
07/08/2025	0645/0845	*	FR	Foreign Trade
07/08/2025	0700/0900	**	CH	Unemployment
07/08/2025	1100/1200	***	GB	Bank Of England Interest Rate
07/08/2025	1100/1200	***	GB	Bank Of England Interest Rate
07/08/2025	1130/1230		GB	BOE Press Conference
07/08/2025	-	***	CN	Trade
07/08/2025	1230/0830	***	US	Jobless Claims
07/08/2025	1230/0830	**	US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
07/08/2025	1230/0830	**	US	Preliminary Non-Farm Productivity
07/08/2025	1300/1400		GB	Decision Maker Panel data
07/08/2025	1400/1000	*	CA	Ivey PMI
07/08/2025	1400/1000	**	US	Wholesale Trade
07/08/2025	1400/1000	**	US	Wholesale Trade
07/08/2025	1430/1030	**	US	Natural Gas Stocks
07/08/2025	1900/1500	*	US	Consumer Credit
07/08/2025	1900/1500	***	MX	Mexico Interest Rate
08/08/2025	2330/0830	**	JP	Household spending
08/08/2025	2350/0850		JP	Balance of Payments
08/08/2025	0500/1400		JP	Economy Watchers Survey
08/08/2025	0600/0800	**	SE	Private Sector Production m/m
08/08/2025	1115/1215		GB	BOE Pill At National MPC Agency Briefing
08/08/2025	1230/0830	***	CA	Labour Force Survey
08/08/2025	1420/1020		US	St. Louis Fed's Alberto Musalem
08/08/2025	1700/1300	**	US	Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly
08/08/2025	1700/1300	**	US	Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly