MNI Gilt Week Ahead: 7 July 2025
Last week politics were even more in focus than expected with the fall out from the welfare bill and increasing questions about whether there is any scope whatsoever for the current government to cut spending outside of current plans or whether any gap in the fiscal forecasts needs to be made up of tax rises (with the latter increasingly likely). This brings into focus when the next Budget will be (we think that 5 November is the most likely date but we think that there is a chance it comes the preceding week on 29 October, see our full analysis here). Ahead of that we will hear from the Chancellor (and Governor Bailey) at Mansion House next week. We will be watching closely for any policy announcements there or any hints of where tax increases could come – with a cut in cash ISA limits expected to be upon the agenda.
Looking to this week, the BOE will release its Financial Stability Report on Wednesday followed by a press conference (we don’t expect Governor Bailey to use this as an opportunity to discuss anything he hasn’t said before on monetary policy). We will also receive monthly activity data (including May GDP) on Friday this week. Markets will be keeping an eye on this as well as both domestic and international political events.
