FED: MNI Fed Preview - April 2026: Between War And Warsh

• RES 4: 0.7284 High Jun’22
• RES 3: 0.7256 2.500 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 10 - 18 price swing   
• RES 2: 0.7208 61.8% of the Feb 25 ‘21 - Apr 9 ‘25 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.7123/87 High Mar 18 / 11 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.6969 @ 17:46 GMT Mar 25
• SUP 1: 0.6911 Low Mar 23
• SUP 2: 0.6897 Low Feb 6 
• SUP 3: 0.6834 Low Jan 23
• SUP 4: 0.6767 High Jan 1 

The trend condition in AUDUSD is bullish. However, attention is on support around the 50-day EMA, currently at 0.6983. The EMA has again been pierced. A clear break of it would undermine the bull theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 0.6897, the Feb 6 low. For bulls, a stronger reversal higher would refocus attention on 0.7187, the Mar 11 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend.  

• RES 4: 186.87 High Jan 23 and a key M/T resistance  
• RES 3: 186.36 High Feb 9
• RES 2: 185.05 76.4% retracement of the Feb 9 - 12 bear leg
• RES 1: 184.77 High Feb 25 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 184.36 @ 17:43 GMT Mar 25
• SUP 1: 183.22/181.87 50-day EMA / Low Mar 16
• SUP 2: 180.81 Low Feb 12 
• SUP 3: 180.10 Low Dec 5 ‘25
• SUP 4: 179.30 23.6% of the Feb 28 ‘25 - Jan 23 bull cycle 

EURJPY continues to recover from its mid-February low. The cross recently breached support at the base of a bull channel - currently at 183.94 - drawn from the Feb 28 ‘25 low. The break highlights a stronger reversal and if correct, opens the next key support at 181.81, the Feb 12 low. Resistance to watch is 184.77, the Feb 25 high. A clear break of this level would instead signal a reversal and the start of a bull cycle inside the channel.  

• Seen in light of the significant clampdown on immigration flows in 2025, Cleveland Fed research staff “find no evidence that the higher share of noncitizens in the labor market contributed to the rise in the unemployment rate during 2023 and 2024.”
• “First, noncitizens may have systematically lower job-finding rates than citizens. Second, during slowdowns, noncitizens’ job-finding and other transition rates may deteriorate more rapidly and extensively than those of US citizens.”
• “In other words, the increase in the unemployment rate that we have seen over the last couple of years appears mainly to be the result of macroeconomic conditions affecting all individuals and is not explained by an increased share of noncitizens in the US labor market in the last few years.”
• See the full report, here.