EUROPEAN INFLATION: MNI Eurozone Inflation Insight – Nov 2025
Dec-03 12:32
We have published and e-mailed to subscribers the MNI Eurozone Inflation Insight, offering MNI analysis across a range of Eurozone-wide and country-level inflation metrics for the flash November release. You can find the full report here.
- HICP inflation was as originally expected but marginally above where consensus likely stood following most country-level data in the flash November release. Core HICP was in line with expectations.
- Energy was the main mover and surprise, coming in 0.3pp above expectations.
- The full November release on Dec 17 will provide a more useful update on exact drivers. That especially applies to services inflation, where it is not yet clear to what extent firm October airfares may have unwound.
- By country, Germany and Spain were stronger than expected, while France, Italy and the Netherlands saw downside misses.
- The ECB is still seen as being highly unlikely to cut at its Dec 18 meeting (<1bp priced), where new projections will be watched to judge whether a very mild easing bias (6bp of cuts by mid-2026) is warranted.
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bull Cycle In Gilts Remains Intact
Nov-03 12:26
- In the FI space, Bund futures are trading closer to their recent lows. This suggests a short-term bear cycle remains intact for now. The move down that started on Oct 17 still appears corrective and has allowed an overbought trend condition to unwind. The next important support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, currently at 129.13. A clear break would signal scope for a deeper retracement. First resistance is 129.73, Oct 28 high.
- The trend structure in Gilt futures is unchanged, it remains bullish and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The next upside objective is 94.00. A break of this level would open 94.24, a 1.618 projection of the Sep 3 - 11 - 26 price swing. Note that the contract is overbought, a short-term pullback would allow this condition to unwind. Firm support to watch 92.75, the 20-day EMA.
OUTLOOK: CEEMEA FX Price Signal Summary - EURHUF Breaches Key Support
Nov-03 12:15
- The trend structure in EURHUF is unchanged, the direction remains down. Today’s price action has resulted in a breach of key support at 387.56, the Oct 3 low. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and exposes 386.70, the 1.236 projection of the Jan 7 - Mar 21 - Apr 14 price swing. The 1.382 projection is at 383.84. Key resistance to watch is 391.44, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of it is required to signal scope for a stronger recovery. Initial resistance is 389.59, the 20-day EMA.
- EURPLN maintains a firmer short-term tone as the cross extends the recovery from its recent lows. Price remains inside a range. Key short-term support lies at 4.2230, the May 15 low (recently pierced). Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish theme and expose the 4.2000 handle. A break of 4.2230 would also highlight a range breakout. On the upside, key resistance to watch is 4.3102, the Apr 16 high. A move above this hurdle is required to instead resume an uptrend. First resistance is 4.2693, the Oct 10 high.
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Nov-03 12:03
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