MNI Eurozone Inflation Insight: December 2025

Marginal Slowdown Before January Annual Repricing - CLICK HERE FOR FULL REPORT 

Key Eurozone December preliminary HICP prints

• Headline HICP: 1.96% (1.92% MNI tracking; 2.0% consensus, 2.14% prior)
• Core HICP: 2.29% (2.4% MNI median, 2.41% prior)

Executive Summary

• HICP inflation decelerated by almost two tenths in December, marginally below initial analyst consensus. Core HICP was a tenth below expectations.
• Energy was the main mover and surprise, coming in 0.4pp below expectations.
• The full December release on Jan 19 will provide a more useful update on exact drivers. That especially applies to services inflation, where it is not yet quite clear what stood behind the marginal downside surprise in the category. This comes ahead of January’s annual repricing of a wide range of services components.
• By country, Germany was the main surprise, printing 0.2pp below consensus, while Spain and France came in in line, and Italy surprised 0.1pp to the upside.
• The flash report did not deliver enough of a downside surprise to impact market implied ECB rate expectations. Ongoing rhetoric suggests the Governing Council thinks the bar to a move into either direction is high.