EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Fig 1: Australian GDP Growth
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg/Refinitiv.
UK
TRADE (POLITICO): “Britain’s economy will be hit by President Donald Trump’s trade war with its allies even if the U.K. strikes a trade deal with the White House, Chancellor Rachel Reeves said Tuesday.
EU
UKRAINE (BBC): “Volodymyr Zelensky said he was ready to work under Donald Trump's "strong leadership" to achieve a lasting peace days after their explosive Oval Office meeting. The Ukrainian president described the White House showdown as "regrettable" in a lengthy social media post in the wake of the US announcing a pause in military aid to Kyiv.”
GERMANY (BBG): “Germany will unlock hundreds of billions of euros for defense and infrastructure investments in a dramatic shift that upends its ironclad controls on government borrowing.”
RUSSIA (ECONOMIST): “A slew of data released on Wednesday will help answer a crucial question: how is Russia’s economy truly faring? In the three years since the country invaded Ukraine, its economy has held up better than most observers had expected.”
IRELAND (BBC): “Ireland is in a "serious period of reform" when it comes to defence and security, the tánaiste (Irish deputy prime minister) has said. Earlier on Tuesday, the Irish Cabinet approved draft legislation to change the rules that govern how its military can be used abroad.”
US
TARIFFS (BBG): “ The Trump administration could announce a pathway for tariff relief on Mexican and Canadian goods covered by North America’s free trade agreement as soon as Wednesday, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said.”
TARIFFS (BBG): “President Donald Trump acknowledged that there may be an “adjustment period” as his sweeping tariffs take effect but sought to defend his push to remake the US economy in a primetime address to a joint session of Congress on Tuesday night, arguing that despite economic headwinds the nation’s “momentum is back.”
FED (MNI BRIEF): New U.S. tariffs will likely push prices higher later this year but also raise concerns about the ongoing strength of business investment and consumer spending, and the Federal Reserve should take its time before making any further cuts to interest rates, New York Fed President John Williams said Tuesday.
FED (MNI INTERVIEW): Fed To Focus On Growth Drag From Tariffs - Sahm
BUSINESS (BBC): “A Hong Kong-based company has agreed to sell most of its stake in two key ports on the Panama Canal to a group led by US investment company BlackRock.”
OTHER
JAPAN (MNI BRIEF): The Bank of Japan will continue to raise the policy interest rate and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation, Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said on Wednesday, failing to offer a timeline.
JAPAN (MNI BRIEF): Japan's economy in the October-December period largely expanded at the same pace of initial estimates, although capital investment will be revised down, economists predicted in the wake of a key government survey.
AUSTRALIA (MNI BRIEF): Global trade uncertainty could lift trimmed mean inflation over the mid-term and stabilise slightly above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s 2.5% midpoint target, Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser noted in a industry presentation Wednesday, tempering expectations of further easing.
AUSTRALIA (MNI BRIEF): The Australian economy grew 0.6% q/q in Q4, up from Q3’s 0.3% and in line with expectations, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed Wednesday. The economy grew 1.3% on a year-ended basis, up 50 basis points over Q3, the National Accounts showed.
NEW ZEALAND (MNI BRIEF): Governor Adrian Orr has resigned and will finish in the role on March 31, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand said in a statement Wednesday. Orr was first appointed as Governor in March 2018 and has worked at the Reserve since 1997.
CANADA (MNI INTERVIEW): BOC To Drop Rates In Trade War: Homebuilders
CHINA
GDP TARGET (MNI BRIEF): China will target 5% GDP growth for 2025 with proactive fiscal expansion for domestic demand as the economy faces increasing external challenges, according to the Government Work Report released during the opening ceremony of the annual National People’s Congress on Wednesday.
CPI TARGET (MNI BRIEF): China has reduced its CPI target to around 2%, the lowest level since 2003 while repeating its moderately loss monetary stance, according to the Government Work Report released during the opening ceremony of the annual National People’s Congress on Wednesday.
CONSUMER (MNI BRIEF): China will increase support for the consumer trade-in programme via an additional CNY300 billion in special treasury bonds this year, as the government puts consumption at the top of its priorities, according to the Government Work Report released during the opening ceremony of the annual National People’s Congress on Wednesday.
REAL ESTATE (MNI BRIEF): China will continue efforts to stabilise the real-estate market by reducing restrictive measures, renovating urban villages, and giving local governments greater autonomy in buying up unsold housing, according to the Government Work Report released during the opening ceremony of the annual National People’s Congress on Wednesday.
CHINA MARKETS
MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY195.5 Bln via OMO Wednesday
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted CNY353.3 billion via 7-day reverse repos, with the rate unchanged at 1.50%. The operation led to a net drain of CNY195.5 billion after offsetting the maturity of CNY548.7 billion today, according to Wind Information.
MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1714 Weds; -1.20% Y/Y
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the dollar-yuan central parity rate lower at 7.1714 on Wednesday, compared with 7.1739 set on Tuesday. The fixing was estimated at 7.2635 by Bloomberg survey today.
MARKET DATA
AUSTRALIA Q4 GDP +0.6% Q/Q; EST. 0.6%; Q3 +0.3%
AUSTRALIA Q4 GDP +1.3% Y/Y; EST. 1.3%; Q3 +0.8%
AUSTRALIA S&P GLOBAL FEB F COMPOSITE PMI 50.6; PRE. 51.2; JAN. 51.1
AUSTRALIA S&P GLOBAL FEB F SERVICES PMI 50.8; PRE. 51.4; JAN. 51.2
NEW ZEALAND FEB. ANZ COMMODITY EXPORT PRICES +3.0% M/M; JAN. +1.8%
JAPAN JIBUN BANK FEB. SERVICES PMI 53.7; PRE. 53.1; JAN 53.0
JAPAN JIBUN BANK FEB. COMPOSITE PMI 52; PRE. 51.36; JAN.51.1
CHINA FEB. CAIXIN COMPOSITE PMI 51.5; JAN. 51.1
CHINA FEB. CAIXIN SERVICES PMI 51.4; JAN. 51.0
SOUTH KOREA GDP Q4 P +0.1% Q/Q; EST. +0.1%; Q3 +0.1%
SOUTH KOREA GDP Q4 P +1.2% Y/Y; EST. 1.2%; Q3 +1.2%
SOUTH KOREA GDP 2024 P +2.0%; EST. +2.0%; 2023 +1.4%
MARKETS
US TSYS: Tsys Curve Twist Steepen, 10yr Hovers At 4.25%, Trump Speaks
AUSSIE BONDS: Cheaper, Q4 GDP In Line, Trump Pledges Balanced Budget
ACGBs (YM -6.0 & XM -10.0) are sharply cheaper but off Sydney session cheaps.
NZGBS: Bear-Steepener, RBNZ Gov. Orr Resigns
NZGBs closed showing a bear-steepener, with benchmark yields 6-11bps higher.
ASIA STOCKS: Equities Edge Higher, HK Equities Lead, Sign Of Tariff Relief
Asian equities broadly rose on Wednesday, buoyed by optimism over China’s economic policy direction and signs of potential tariff relief from the U.S. administration. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.7%, with major gains in Hong Kong, Taiwan, and South Korea. Chinese markets rallied as the government reaffirmed its 5% growth target and announced increased fiscal spending, raising hopes for more stimulus. India rebounded after a historic 10-day losing streak, while Japan and South Korea gained on optimism surrounding trade. Australia was a notable laggard, with its market declining.
OIL: Demand & Supply Concerns Drive Prices Below Initial Support
Oil prices have continued falling with both benchmarks trading below initial support today. WTI is down 1.0% to $67.60/bbl off the $67.50 low, breaching support at $67.75. Brent is down 0.5% to $70.73/bbl after a trough of $70.61, and is trading below support at $70.96 and opening key support at $69.59. The USD index is down slightly.
FOREX: USD Firms Against AUD, NZD But Away From Best Levels, Yen Outperforms
The USD is up against most of the majors, albeit away from best levels. USD/JPY is relatively steady, while higher beta plays like AUD and NZD have lost some ground.
UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL)
Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
05/03/2025 | 0730/0830 | *** | ![]() | CPI |
05/03/2025 | 0745/0845 | * | ![]() | Industrial Production |
05/03/2025 | 0815/0915 | ** | ![]() | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
05/03/2025 | 0815/0915 | ** | ![]() | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
05/03/2025 | 0845/0945 | ** | ![]() | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
05/03/2025 | 0845/0945 | ** | ![]() | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
05/03/2025 | 0850/0950 | ** | ![]() | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
05/03/2025 | 0850/0950 | ** | ![]() | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
05/03/2025 | 0855/0955 | ** | ![]() | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
05/03/2025 | 0855/0955 | ** | ![]() | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
05/03/2025 | 0900/1000 | *** | ![]() | GDP (f) |
05/03/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | ![]() | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
05/03/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | ![]() | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
05/03/2025 | 0930/0930 | ** | ![]() | S&P Global Services PMI (Final) |
05/03/2025 | 0930/0930 | *** | ![]() | S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Composite PMI |
05/03/2025 | 1000/1100 | ** | ![]() | PPI |
05/03/2025 | 1000/1100 | * | ![]() | Retail Sales |
05/03/2025 | 1000/1000 | ** | ![]() | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
05/03/2025 | 1000/1000 | ** | ![]() | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
05/03/2025 | 1200/0700 | ** | ![]() | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
05/03/2025 | 1315/0815 | *** | ![]() | ADP Employment Report |
05/03/2025 | 1430/1430 | ![]() | TSC: Bailey/Pill/Taylor/Greene | |
05/03/2025 | 1430/1430 | ![]() | Greene annual report | |
05/03/2025 | 1445/0945 | *** | ![]() | S&P Global Services Index (final) |
05/03/2025 | 1445/0945 | *** | ![]() | S&P Global US Final Composite PMI |
05/03/2025 | 1500/1000 | *** | ![]() | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index |
05/03/2025 | 1500/1000 | ** | ![]() | Factory New Orders |
05/03/2025 | 1530/1030 | ** | ![]() | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
05/03/2025 | 1900/1400 | ![]() | Fed Beige Book | |
05/03/2025 | 2315/1815 | ![]() | New York Fed's Roberto Perli | |
06/03/2025 | - | ![]() | European Central Bank Meeting | |
06/03/2025 | 0030/1130 | * | ![]() | Building Approvals |
06/03/2025 | 0030/1130 | ** | ![]() | Trade Balance |
06/03/2025 | 0645/0745 | ** | ![]() | Unemployment |
06/03/2025 | 0700/0800 | ![]() | Flash CPI | |
06/03/2025 | 0830/0930 | ** | ![]() | S&P Global Final Eurozone Construction PMI |
06/03/2025 | 0930/0930 | ![]() | Decision Maker Panel data | |
06/03/2025 | 0930/0930 | ** | ![]() | S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI |
06/03/2025 | 1000/1100 | ** | ![]() | Retail Sales |
06/03/2025 | 1100/0600 | *** | ![]() | Turkey Benchmark Rate |
06/03/2025 | 1315/1415 | *** | ![]() | ECB Deposit Rate |
06/03/2025 | 1315/1415 | *** | ![]() | ECB Main Refi Rate |
06/03/2025 | 1315/1415 | *** | ![]() | ECB Marginal Lending Rate |
06/03/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | ![]() | Jobless Claims |
06/03/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | ![]() | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
06/03/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | ![]() | International Merchandise Trade (Trade Balance) |
06/03/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | ![]() | International Merchandise Trade (Trade Balance) |
06/03/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | ![]() | Trade Balance |
06/03/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | ![]() | Non-Farm Productivity (f) |
06/03/2025 | 1345/1445 | ![]() | ECB Press conference post Governing council meeting | |
06/03/2025 | 1345/0845 | ![]() | Philly Fed's Pat Harker |