MNI BRIEF: Japan Q4 GDP To Be Little Changed, Capex Weaker

Japan's economy in the October-December period largely expanded at the same pace of initial estimates, although capital investment will be revised down, economists predicted in the wake of a key government survey.

The median forecast by seven economists for revised Q4 GDP is 0.7% q/q, or an annualised 2.7%, compared with the preliminary estimate of 0.7% q/q, or an annualised 2.8%. 

The economists expected capex to be revised to 0.3% q/q from the initial estimate of 0.5% following the government’s data, which showed that investment in Q4 excluding software rose 0.5% q/q, slowing from 1.1% in Q3.

The economists forecast private consumption to be unrevised at 0.1% on quarter and public investment to be revised up to -0.2% q/q from initial estimate of -0.3%.

The contribution of private-sector inventories to the total domestic output is forecast to be unrevised at -0.2 pp.

Net exports of goods and services are expected to have made a positive 0.7 percentage point contribution to the total domestic output, unchanged from the preliminary estimate.

The Cabinet Office will release revised (second preliminary) GDP data for the October-December quarter at 0850 JST on Tuesday, March 11 (2350 GMT on Monday, March 10).