EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Fig 1: Oil Prices Surge Following Israel Strikes On Iran
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P.
UK
TARIFFS (BBG): “UK Business and Trade Secretary Jonathan Reynolds said he was hopeful that a deal can be struck soon with the US to lower tariffs on British automobiles but indicated that negotiations over steel have further to go.”
EU
CHINA/EU (XINHUA):: “China is willing to strengthen cooperation with the European Central Bank on reforming the international monetary system and will expand opening up, Premier Li Qiang told ECB President Christine Lagarde at a meeting in Beijing.”
US
MIDDLE EAST (NYT): “ President Trump has said he would like to negotiate a deal with Tehran over its nuclear program but had also acknowledged that Israel might attack Iran first. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Thursday that the United States had no involvement in Israel’s unilateral strikes on Iran but had been told that Israel considered the attack necessary for its self-defense.”
TARIFFS (BBG): “President Donald Trump said he may raise US auto tariffs in order to boost domestic auto manufacturing, a move that could further ratchet up tensions with trading partners. “
PROTESTS (RTRS): “ A U.S. judge on Thursday temporarily barred President Donald Trump from deploying National Guard troops in Los Angeles amid protests over stepped-up immigration enforcement, finding that the Guard was unlawfully mobilized by Trump.”
OTHER
ISRAEL/IRAN (RTRS): “Israel said it targeted Iran's nuclear facilities, ballistic missile factories and military commanders on Friday at the start of what it warned would be a prolonged operation to prevent Tehran from building an atomic weapon.”
ISRAEL (BBG): “Explosions were heard across Tehran and in the city of Natanz, home to one of its nuclear sites, according to videos and local media. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel had “struck at the heart of Iran’s nuclear enrichment program” as well as leading nuclear scientists and the ballistic missile program.”
IRAN (BBG): “Iran’s Armed Forces spokesperson Abolfazl Shekarchi says “the Zionist regime and the US will receive a harsh blow,” in response to Israel’s attacks earlier Friday.”
JAPAN (MNI BOJ WATCH): The Bank of Japan is likely to keep its policy interest rate unchanged at 0.50% at its June 16-17 meeting, with focus shifting to whether it slows the pace of reducing JGB purchases.
JAPAN (BBG): “Bank of Japan officials see prices rising a little stronger than they expected earlier in the year, a factor that may open the door to discussions over whether to raise interest rates if global trade tensions ease, according to people familiar with the matter.”
CHINA
ELECTRICITY (MNI): Local analysts share insight into China's electricity demand this year. On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com.
SPECIAL BONDS (YICAI): “Hunan province will issue CNY20 billion of local government special bonds to resolve overdue corporate accounts, a nationwide first, Yicai.com reported.”
MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY67.5 Bln via OMO Friday
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted CNY202.5 billion via 7-day reverse repos, with the rate unchanged at 1.40%. The operation led to a net injection of CNY67.5 billion after offsetting the maturity of CNY135 reverse repo today, according to Wind Information.
MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1772 Fri; +1.04% Y/Y
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the dollar-yuan central parity rate lower at 7.1772 on Friday, compared with 7.1803 set on Thursday. The fixing was estimated at 7.1679 by Bloomberg survey today.
MARKET DATA
NEW ZEALAND MAY BUSINESSNZ MANUFACTURING PMI 47.5; PRIOR 53.3
JAPAN APR F IP Y/Y 0.5%; PRIOR 0.7%
JAPAN APR CAPACITY UTILISATION M/M 1.3%; PRIOR -2.4%
JAPAN APR TERTIARY INDUSTRY INDEX M/M 0.3%; MEDIAN 0.2%; PRIOR -1.0%
MARKETS
US TSYS: Asia Wrap - Yields Off Their Lows But Shorts Look Vulnerable
The TYU5 range has been 110-31 to 111-13 during the Asia-Pacific session. It last changed hands at 111-05, up 0-03 from the previous close.
Data/Events: U. of Mich Survey
Fig 1: US-10 Year Yield Daily Chart
JGBS: Richer With Global Bonds As Israel Strikes Iran
JGB futures (JBU5) are sharply stronger at 139.30, +48 compared to settlement levels, but well off session bests (138.80).
AUSSIE BONDS: Richer With Risk-Off After Israeli Strike On Iran
ACGBs (YM +5.0 & XM +6.5) are richer, but well off bests, after a major escalation in Middle East tensions after Israel launched strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities/military targets.
BONDS: NZGBS: Closed With A Bull-Flattener But Well Off Bests, Mid-East In Focus
NZGBs closed well off session bests but still showing a bull-flattener, with benchmark yields flat to 2bps lower. News that Israel had conducted an airstrike in Iran earlier today sent global yields tumbling. NZGBs were as much as 5-8bps richer early in the session.
FOREX: Asia FX Wrap - The USD Tries To Bounce, Can It Follow Through ?
The BBDXY has had a range of 1197.45 - 1204.41 in the Asia-Pac session, it is currently trading around 1203. "Iran Says to Respond ‘Harshly’ Against US, Israel Over Attacks. Iran’s Armed Forces spokesperson Abolfazl Shekarchi says “the Zionist regime and the US will receive a harsh blow,” in response to Israel’s attacks earlier Friday. " - BBG. How the USD trades on this news will be key to how we move forward from here, can it bounce with oil and as a safe haven ? If not what is that telling us ?
Data/Events :Ger CPI, Fra CPI, Spain CPI, Italy Trade Balance, EZ Trade Balance & Industrial Prod
Fig 1: GBP/USD Spot Daily Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
JPY: Asia Wrap - JPY Bought As A Safe Haven
The Asia-Pac USD/JPY range has been 142.80 - 144.14, Asia is currently trading around 143.50. USD/JPY was under pressure for most of the Asian session as US yields and Stocks both moved lower in response to Israel's attack on Iran. The JPY is normally sought out as a safe haven when risk begins to turn lower, the move in oil though could provide some headwinds for the move lower in USD/JPY but it does feel any bounces are going to be met with supply in the short-term. USD/JPY has bounced as we head into the London session clawing back all the day's losses.
Options : Close significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 144.00($1.46bm), 145.00($598m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 145.00($4.87b June 16).
Fig 1 : USD/JPY Spot Hourly Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
AUD: Asia Wrap - Risk Currencies Knee-Jerk Lower
The AUD/USD has had a range of 0.6457 - 0.6533 in the Asia- Pac session, it is currently trading around 0.6480. The AUD has been under large pressure for most of our session as the risk-on move unravels on the back of a wave of airstrikes currently being carried out on Iran. The knee-jerk move lower in risk currencies like the AUD and NZD was swift and has continued to trade heavy while risk looks like its correction could have more to play out.
AUD/JPY - Today's range 92.32 - 93.83, it is trading currently around 92.95. Price has turned quickly lower again this morning as risk unravels. A clear lower high in place now and AUD/JPY looks set to test its support. A break back below 91.50/92.00 will see the move lower regain momentum and the focus will turn to the year's lows once more.
Fig 1: AUD/JPY spot Daily Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
NZD: Asia Wrap - Can NZD/USD Hold Above 0.6000 With Risk Breaking Down
The NZD/USD had a range of 0.6004 - 0.6070 in the Asia-Pac session, going into the London open trading around 0.6020. The NZD has been under large pressure for most of our session as the risk-on move unravels on the back of a wave of airstrikes currently being carried out on Iran. The knee-jerk move lower in risk currencies like the AUD and NZD was swift and has continued to trade heavy while risk looks like its correction could have more to play out. The NZD is still trying hard to hold above its 0.6000 support, if risk falls further can it continue to do so ?
AUD/NZD range for the session has been 1.0746 - 1.0774, currently trading 1.0770. A top looks in place now just above 1.0900, the cross topped out on Monday towards the 1.0800/25 sell area, the first target looks to be around 1.0650.
Fig 1: NZD/USD Spot Daily Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
ASIA STOCKS: Risk Off Post Israel Strikes On Iran Weighs On Sentiment
Asia equities are down across the board (except for the Philippines), as risk aversion has spiked following Israel attacks on Iran (including nuclear facilities), in a major escalation of Middle East tensions. US equity futures are down sharply, albeit up slightly from session lows in latest dealings.
OIL: Benchmarks Surge As Israel Attacks Iran
Oil benchmarks sit sharply higher as markets digest the major escalation in Middle East tensions/conflicts after Israel launched strikes on Iran nuclear facilities/military targets (including Iranian Military personnel). Israel comments suggest that military operations will continue until its objectives are met, while focus is also on Iran's response. The country stated it will respond harshly against the US and Israel in response to the attacks.
GOLD: Pushing Towards New High After Israeli Airstrike On Iran
Gold is 1.3% higher at 3428 in today’s Asia-Pac session, with risk off following Israel's strike on Iran fuelling bullion demand.
UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL)
Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
13/06/2025 | 0600/0800 | *** | ![]() | Final Inflation Report |
13/06/2025 | 0600/0800 | *** | ![]() | HICP (f) |
13/06/2025 | 0645/0845 | *** | ![]() | HICP (f) |
13/06/2025 | 0700/0900 | *** | ![]() | HICP (f) |
13/06/2025 | 0830/0930 | ** | ![]() | Bank of England/Ipsos Inflation Attitudes Survey |
13/06/2025 | 0900/1100 | ** | ![]() | Industrial Production |
13/06/2025 | 0900/1100 | * | ![]() | Trade Balance |
13/06/2025 | - | *** | ![]() | Money Supply |
13/06/2025 | - | *** | ![]() | New Loans |
13/06/2025 | - | *** | ![]() | Social Financing |
13/06/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | ![]() | Monthly Survey of Manufacturing |
13/06/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | ![]() | Wholesale Trade |
13/06/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | ![]() | U. Mich. Survey of Consumers |
13/06/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | ![]() | University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Inflation Expectation |
13/06/2025 | 1500/1700 | ![]() | ECB Elderson At Senior Supervisor's Conference | |
13/06/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | ![]() | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
13/06/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | ![]() | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |