EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Fig 1: Japan GDP - Key Components Only Post Modest Growth

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI
UK
HOUSE PRICES (BBG): “UK home sellers refrained from increasing prices further this month as an abundance of properties on estate agents’ books strengthened the bargaining power of buyers, according to a survey by Rightmove.”
EU
ECB (BBG): “European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said creating incentives for investments in Europe is a better approach to prevent capital outflows to other regions than imposing taxes.”
EUR (BBG): “The European Central Bank is prepared to offer euro liquidity to monetary authorities from around the world, an effort to prevent market tensions and increase global use of the single currency.”
RUSSIA (BBG): “China increased its support for Russia’s war in Ukraine in 2025 and is likely to deepen cooperation with Moscow further this year, Western officials said, casting doubt on efforts by European leaders to improve relations with Beijing.”
US
INFLATION (MNI BRIEF): U.S. January CPI and core CPI rose just 0.171% and 0.295%, respectively, both a tenth below Wall Street expectations, adding to the case for the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates where they are for the time being. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the 12-month headline measure down a tenth to 2.4% and core CPI steady at 2.5%.
TARIFFS (BBG): "The US Supreme Court scheduled Feb. 20 as its next opinion day amid a global wait for a ruling that could invalidate most of President Donald Trump’s signature tariffs."
JAPAN
BOJ (MNI BRIEF): Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will meet Kazuo Ueda, Governor of the Bank of Japan, on Monday to exchange views on the economy and financial markets, a local newspaper reported Saturday.
ECONOMY (MNI): Japan's economy over Q4 rose 0.1% q/q, or an annualised 0.2%, marking the first growth in two quarters, but the rebound from the Q3 contraction was weak as gains in capital investment and private consumption were modest, preliminary GDP data released by the Cabinet Office showed Monday.
OTHER
TECH (BBG): “A growing procession of tech industry leaders including Elon Musk and Tim Cook are warning about a global crisis in the making: A shortage of memory chips is beginning to hammer profits, derail corporate plans and inflate price tags on everything from laptops and smartphones to automobiles and data centers — and the crunch is only going to get worse.”
IRAN (BBG): “Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he proposed terms for any deescalation deal with Iran during a meeting with US President Donald Trump last week.”
NEW ZEALAND (BBG): “ Latest jobs data indicates the labor market is improving, the Treasury Dept. says in its Fortnightly Economic Update published Monday in Wellington.”
CHINA
YUAN (CCTV/BBG): “While exchange rate volatility remains possible, current trends indicate the yuan is increasingly viewed as a currency for trading, investment and financing, according to a report from Yuyuantantian, a social media account affiliated with state broadcaster China Central Television.”
ECONOMY (BBG): "Xi Jinping called for anchoring economic growth around domestic demand as its “main driver” in a speech delivered by the Chinese president at a key policy meeting late last year and released on Sunday."
MARKET DATA
NEW ZEALAND JAN PERFORMANCE OF SERVICES INDEX 50.9; PRIOR 51.7
NEW ZEALAND JAN CARD SPENDING RETAIL M/M -1.1%; PRIOR -0.3%
NEW ZEALAND JAN CARD SPENDING TOTAL M/M -0.7%; PRIOR -1.3%
JAPAN Q4 P GDP Q/Q 0.1%; MEDIAN 0.4%; PRIOR -0.7%
JAPAN Q4 P GDP NOMINAL Q/Q 0.6%; MEDIAN 1.0%; PRIOR 0.0%
JAPAN Q4 GDP DEFLATOR Y/Y 3.4%; MEDIAN 3.2%; PRIOR 3.5%
JAPAN Q4 P PRIVATE CONSUMPTION Q/Q 0.1%; MEDIAN 0.1%; PRIOR 0.4%
JAPAN Q4 P BUSINESS SPENDING Q/Q 0.2%; MEDIAN 0.6%; PRIOR -0.3%
JAPAN Q4 P INVENTORY CONTRIBUTION -0.2%; MEDIAN -0.1%; PRIOR -0.1%
JAPAN Q4 P NET EXPORTS CONTRIBUTION 0.0%; MEDIAN 0.1%; PRIOR -0.3%
JAPAN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION DEC F Y/Y 2.6%; PRIOR 2.6%
MARKETS
US TSYS: Bond Market Awaits FED Minutes as CPI Miss Raises Cut Hopes
An unsurprisingly quiet day in US bond futures given much of Asia out and US on holiday Monday (no cash trading). The US 10-Yr future had a modest amount of volume for a quiet day and traded in a range of 113-03 to 113-07+. Currently at 113-05 sees TYH6 flat on the day.
The run up in bonds last week has the TYH6 consolidate above all major moving averages and nearing overbought on the 14-day relative strength index. This suggests that in the short term (as markets await FED minutes) further rallies could be capped.

Cash unsurprisingly finished Friday strong with yields lower across the curve and curves flatter.
For the week last week:
JGBS: Twist-Steepener Leaves YC Hovering At Bottom Of Range
JGB futures are stronger, +10 compared to settlement levels, but off session bests.

Source: Bloomberg Finance LP
AUSSIE BONDS: Curve Continues To Flatten In Line With Expected Cash Rate
ACGBs (YM +2.0 & XM +4.5) are stronger after dealing in relatively narrow ranges in today’s session.

Bloomberg Finance LP
BONDS: NZGBS: Richer, PSI Holding Firm, RBNZ Policy Decision On Wed
NZGBs closed 3bps richer across benchmarks, with the NZ-AU 10-year yield differential little changed at -26bps.

Bloomberg Finance LP
FOREX: USD - BBDXY Holds Below 1185-1187
The BBDXY has had a range today of 1181.54 - 1182.53 in the Asia-Pac session; it is currently trading around 1182. The USD stalled toward 1185 and drifted lower as US yields continued to price in rate cuts. Risk steadied itself and recency bias tends to dismiss it evolving into anything more. The market is very bearish the USD so if we should get some form of a deeper correction in risk and the USD finds demand as a hedge, the market is not positioned for this. On the day, the first resistance remains toward the 1185-1187 area and then 1195 where I suspect we could see sellers return. A sustained break below 1175-1180 is needed to potentially signal the start of another leg lower.
Fig 1: GBP/USD Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
JPY: USD/JPY - Consolidating Around 153.00
The USD/JPY range today has been 152.64-153.16 in the Asia-Pac session, it is currently trading around 153.03, +0.22%. USD/JPY was faded on Friday night again on a bounce back toward 154.00 as US yields continued to extend lower after the US CPI. The headwinds for Yen shorts are growing and putting pressure on the leveraged funds. This price action does look messy but I still believe dips back toward the 149-152 will probably provide solid support again should we see it, until then it looks like we chop around albeit with a heavy tone. On the day, the first resistance is back towards 153.50-154.00 and then the 155.00 area as the market pares back its overextended USD longs and looks for another base to form from which to potentially move higher again.
Fig 1 : JPY CFTC Data

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
AUD/USD - Drifts Higher Thanks To CNH Strength
The AUD/USD has had a range today of 0.7057 - 0.7087 in the Asia- Pac session, it is currently trading around 0.7085, +0.15%. The AUD drifted higher in our day as USD/CNH came under pressure moving below 6.8900 with China out for Lunar New Year. With the US also out today I suspect it could be a very quiet start to the week. Crypto has started the week back under pressure so worth keeping an eye on. CFTC data shows leveraged funds continue to add to their longs as further hikes are potentially priced in. On the day, the first support is again back toward 0.7020-0.7050, a break below here could signal a deeper pullback as the 0.7100-0.7200 continues to cap the move higher, how risk holds up when the US returns will be a key factor.
Fig 1: AUD CFTC Data

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
NZD/USD - Holding Above 0.6000 As Risk Steadies
The NZD/USD had a range today of 0.6013-0.6041 in the Asia-Pac session, it is currently trading around 0.6030, -0.15%. The NZD found demand back towards 0.6000 and this support will need to continue to hold if we are to get an eventual test of the 0.6100 area. Risk has stabilised for now and we should have a quiet start to the week with both the US and China out. On the day, the first support remains in the 0.5985-0.6015 area; a break below here could signal a deeper pullback toward 0.5900. For now the 0.6100 area continues to cap but the bulls will be hoping for risk to firm up to have another go
Fig 1: NZD CFTC Data

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
ASIA: NKY Regains from Losses Earlier After GDP Shock
With much of Asia closed Monday, all eyes were on the NIKKEI which had reached new highs early last week post election. The NKY posted modest gains early to reach 57,219 but gave back those gains following the weaker than expected Q4 GDP release. Japan's economy grew by a mere +0.2% YoY in 4Q, significantly missing the median forecast of +1.6%. This underscored persistent weaknesses in business spending and private consumption, dampening investor sentiment and sending the NKY to lows of 56,748. The NKY is staging a modest comeback in the afternoon session up +0.15% on the day.
The NKY remains up over 5% following the February 8 election and some investment houses now appear to be happy to lock in profits and wait for further clarity on policy. With expectations of further stimulus growing the next key data release is the January National CPI Friday and expectations are for a moderation from the December result. The momentum for the NKY remains positive with the MACD (white) line trending above the Signal (red) line, a bullish indicator. This suggests pullbacks could continue to see dip buyers emerge as hopes of stimulus support investor sentiment.

COMMODITIES: Oil Flat Ahead of US Iran Meeting, Gold Back Below $5,000

UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL)
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 16/02/2026 | 0430/1330 | ** | Industrial Production | |
| 16/02/2026 | 0700/0800 | ** | Unemployment | |
| 16/02/2026 | 0800/0900 | * | CH Flash GDP | |
| 16/02/2026 | 1000/1100 | ** | EZ Industrial Production | |
| 16/02/2026 | - | ECB Lagarde and Cipollone at Eurogroup meeting | ||
| 16/02/2026 | 1315/0815 | ** | CMHC Housing Starts | |
| 16/02/2026 | 1325/0825 | Fed's Michelle Bowman | ||
| 16/02/2026 | 1330/0830 | ** | Monthly Survey of Manufacturing | |
| 17/02/2026 | 0700/0700 | *** | Labour Market - AWE & Unemployment | |
| 17/02/2026 | 0700/0700 | *** | Labour Market - Payrolls & Claimants | |
| 17/02/2026 | 0700/0700 | *** | Labour Market - Payrolls & Claimants | |
| 17/02/2026 | 0700/0700 | *** | Labour Market - AWE & Unemployment | |
| 17/02/2026 | 0700/0800 | *** | Germany CPI (f) | |
| 17/02/2026 | 0700/0800 | *** | Germany CPI (f) | |
| 17/02/2026 | 0900/1000 | Foreign Trade | ||
| 17/02/2026 | 1000/1100 | *** | ZEW Current Expectations Index | |
| 17/02/2026 | - | ECB de Guindos at ECOFIN Meeting | ||
| 17/02/2026 | 1330/0830 | * | International Canadian Transaction in Securities | |
| 17/02/2026 | 1330/0830 | ** | Wholesale Trade | |
| 17/02/2026 | 1330/0830 | ** | Empire State Manufacturing Survey | |
| 17/02/2026 | 1330/0830 | *** | CPI |