MNI EUROPEAN MARKETS ANALYSIS: US Yields Down, As Tsys Re-Open

• The USD extended Monday weakness initially, before headlines crossed from US President Trump of 25% tariffs to be implemented on Canada and Mexico (likely from Feb 1). The USD rebounded, with CAD and MXN seeing the sharpest falls. Sentiment has stabilized somewhat, while yen has outperformed.
• Tsys futures are holding near session's best levels now though, brushing off earlier weakness following those tariff headlines. Equity markets are mostly higher, while commodities are mixed.
• Later US January Philly Fed non-manufacturing, UK labour market, euro area/German ZEW and Canada’s December CPI data are released.

MARKETS

US TSYS: Tsys Futures Trade At Session's Best, Curve Flattens Slightly

It has been a volatile session, following the Inauguration of Trump he has been busy signing executive orders, however the market has really only reacted to comments surrounding Canada & Mexico tariffs. Asian equities are trading higher with Hong Kong stocks the top performer following positive TikTok comments from Trump. Tsys futures volumes have surged, while the cash tsys curve has flattened slightly.

• Tsys futures are holding near session's best levels now, brushing off earlier weakness following headlines around 25% tariffs on Canada & Mexico. TU is +02¾ at 102-26¼ while TY is trading +16 at 109-01+, Resistance is seen at 109-06 (Dec 31 high) but gains are deemed corrective from a technical perspective, against a medium-term bear trend with support at 108-00 (Jan 16 low).
• Cash tsys curve has twist flattened, with the belly out-performing, the 7yr leads the way trading -9.5bps to 4.436% just off the ytd lows of 4.413%, while the 10yr is -9.1bps at 4.536%
• Long-end bonds have outperformed recently, flattening yield curves as markets downplayed Donald Trump's tariff threats against Canada and Mexico. The 2s10s spread fell to 31bps, its tightest level since January 3, with technical resistance and charting suggesting a double top may have formed at 42bps, which could limit further steepening for now.
• Fed Funds futures have seen cut expectations build during the Asian session to 43bp for 2025 vs 38bp at the US crossover on Monday and 32bp prior to last week’s CPI report. A next 25bp cut from the FOMC is seen around June/July.
• It is another quiet data session today with just Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity expected out.

GLOBAL MACRO: Canada & Mexico Very Vulnerable To US Tariffs, Response Likely

On the first day of his second term, President Trump has said that he thinks a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico will be enacted from February 1. This has driven a sharp increase in the US dollar (USD BBDXY +0.4%) and seen CAD (-0.9%), MXN (-1.1%) and AUD (-0.7%) sink against the greenback and equities lower. This is bad news for Canada and Mexico but intense negotiations are likely over coming days. 

• Increasing protectionism can easily lead to a trade war. Assuming the 25% US tariff goes ahead, Canada and Mexico are highly likely to retaliate, which would also hurt the US as 17% and 16.3% respectively of its total exports went to those destinations in 2024. Canada’s foreign minister Joly has already said that there will be a response.
• In 2024, over 28% of US merchandise imports came from Canada and Mexico and thus a 25% tariff is likely to result in higher prices certainly in the short- to- medium terms. 

US imports by source % total

• In the year to November, the US’ trade deficit with Canada narrowed around $4.5bn to its lowest since 2021 but it is $46bn wider than when Trump was last in office, making it a target. With Mexico it was $19bn wider in 2024 and over $60bn respectively.
• Canada is extremely exposed to the US with exports to its southern neighbour accounting for 76% of the 2024 total and in 2023 over 20% of GDP. But with supply chains highly intertwined between the two, US tariffs are likely to hurt both economies. Oil is a major export to the US, ranked 1 and 2, but Trump has previously said that it won’t be exempted from tariffs.
• Mexico’s exports to the US in 2024 accounted for 83% of the total but the economy is less exposed than Canada with them worth 6.8% of GDP in 2023.

Exports to the US 2023 %

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv

ECB: January Rate Cut “Done Deal” For ECB’s Kazimir

Slovakia’s ECB Governing Council member Kazimir believes that there will be another rate cut at the central bank’s January 30 meeting followed by another two or three back-to-back moves given the data. However, the high level of uncertainty means that the ECB will need to remain flexible. It began easing in June last year and has cut 100bp this cycle. 

• Kazimir said that “Three or four cuts in a row are feasible, but at the same time, I must say that we cannot swear to it”. January “for me personally, the deal is done”, which is consistent with comments from other ECB members, according to Bloomberg.
• The OIS market has a 25bp cut for next week almost fully priced in.
• The ECB will have to continue to weigh up inflation risks, especially from the weaker euro and global developments, with persistent weak growth, especially in Germany. In this regard Kazimir said “what we need above all is balance between acting too cautiously and too aggressively”, but the central bank is on the “right track” to achieve its 2% inflation target. In December it forecast 2.1% for 2025.
• He said that the neutral rate is between 2% and 3%, but probably closer to 2%.
• Kazimir was concerned about the impact US President Trump’s policies will have on Europe’s competitiveness, which is already a problem.

JGBS: Richer With 40Y Leading After Strong Auction

JGB futures are stronger, +8 compared to settlement levels, but well off session bests.

• Today’s move was all about US tsys. Cash US tsys are 6-10bps richer in today’s Asia-Pacific session, with a flattening bias, following yesterday’s holiday. The session has been marked by volatility, driven by reports that Trump suggested tariffs on Canada and Mexico might take effect on February 1. While gains were briefly pared, US tsys have since rebounded, trading near session bests.
• Today’s local calendar was empty apart from 40-year supply.
• Cash JGBs are 1-3bps richer across benchmarks, with the 40-year leading. The benchmark 10-year yield is 0.9bps lower at 1.191% versus the cycle high of 1.262%.
• The issuance of 40-year bonds today was met with strong demand, with the actual high yield coming in notably below dealer expectations. According to a Bloomberg poll, the anticipated yield was 2.60%, compared to the realized yield of 2.57%. The auction’s cover ratio also improved, rising to 2.7518x from 2.2364x in the previous outing.
• Swap rates are slightly higher. Swap spreads are wider.
• Tomorrow, the local calendar will see BoJ Rinban Operations covering 1-25-year JGBs.
• BoJ Policy Decision on Friday.

AUSSIE BONDS: Richer With US Tsys, Trump Tariff Talk Impact Was Fleeting

ACGBs (YM +5.0 & XM +6.5) are stronger and near Sydney session highs. 

• Today’s move was all about US tsys. Cash US tsys are 6-9bps richer in today’s Asia-Pacific session, with a flattening bias, following yesterday’s holiday. The session has been marked by volatility, driven by reports that Trump suggested tariffs on Canada and Mexico might take effect on February 1. While gains were briefly pared, US tsys have since rebounded, trading near session bests.
• Cash ACGBs are 6bps richer with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -13bps.
• Swap rates are 5bps lower.
• The bills strip has bull-flattened, with pricing flat to 54.
• RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 5bps softer across meetings today. A 25bp rate cut is more than fully priced for April (110%), with the probability of a February cut at 68% (based on an effective cash rate of 4.34%).
• The local calendar is light this week after key December labour market data last Thursday. The highlights are the Westpac Leading Index tomorrow and S&P Global PMIs (P) on Friday. The focus is now on Q4 CPI data released on Wednesday, January 29.
• The AOFM plans to sell A$800mn of the 2.75% 21 June 2035 bond tomorrow and A$700mn of the 1.50% 21 June 2031 bond on Friday. 

BONDS: NZGBS: Closed Sharply Richer With US Tsys, Q4 CPI Tomorrow

NZGBs closed sharply richer and at session bests, with yields 7bps lower.

• Today’s move was all about US tsys. Cash US tsys are 6-9bps richer in today’s Asia-Pacific session, with a flattening bias, following yesterday’s holiday. The session has been marked by volatility, driven by reports that Trump suggested tariffs on Canada and Mexico might take effect on February 1. While gains were briefly pared, US tsys have since rebounded, trading near session bests.
• Card spending in NZ rose 1.5% m/m in December, the highest since February. 125bp of monetary easing appears to be encouraging consumers to spend again.
• Swap rates closed 6-7bps lower.
• RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed slightly mixed. 44bps of easing is priced for February, with a cumulative 108bps by November 2025.
• Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Q4 CPI data including the RBNZ’s estimates of core.
• Bloomberg consensus forecasts for headline inflation are in line with the RBNZ’s November projections at 2.1% y/y, 0.1pp moderation from Q3. The expected quarterly increase of 0.5% is slightly higher than the RBNZ’s 0.4%.
• The Q3 sector factor model measure of core was at 3.4%. Following the sharp contraction in Q3 and Q4 growth, another 50bp rate cut on February 19 is likely, especially if inflation prints around the band’s mid-point.

NEW ZEALAND: Q4 CPI Forecast To Be Close To Band Mid-Point

Q4 CPI data including the RBNZ’s estimates of core are released on Wednesday. Bloomberg consensus forecasts for headline inflation are in line with the RBNZ’s November projections at 2.1% y/y, 0.1pp moderation from Q3. The expected quarterly increase of 0.5% is slightly higher than the RBNZ’s 0.4%. The Q3 sector factor model measure of core was at 3.4%. Following the sharp contraction in Q3 and Q4 growth, another 50bp rate cut on February 19 is likely, especially if inflation prints around the band’s mid-point.

• Quarterly headline inflation estimates range from +0.3% to +0.6% resulting in annual rates of 2% to 2.3% y/y. Westpac is in line with consensus’ 0.5%/2.1%, while Kiwibank and ASB are slightly lower at 0.4%/2.1% and ANZ higher with 0.5%/2.2%. BNZ is the outlier amongst the local banks forecasting the CPI to rise 0.6% q/q and 2.3% y/y due to an above-consensus estimate for tradeables inflation.
• Domestically-driven non-tradeables inflation will be watched closely. It is forecast to rise 0.8% q/q and 4.7% y/y down from 1.3% q/q & 4.9% in Q3. Consensus is in line with the RBNZ. ANZ, BNZ and Westpac are all at consensus, while Kiwibank and ASB are lower forecasting 0.6% q/q and 0.7% respectively.
• In November, the RBNZ forecast Q4 tradeables prices to fall 0.2% q/q and 1.5% y/y, but Bloomberg consensus is higher projecting a 0.1% q/q rise (forecasts range from -0.2% to +0.4% q/q) resulting in a 1.2% y/y drop. Kiwibank and ASB are consistent with consensus, while Westpac is lower forecasting a 0.1% q/q decline, ANZ and BNZ are higher with +0.2% q/q and +0.4% q/q respectively.

NEW ZEALAND: Rate Cuts Helping Consumption

Seasonally-adjusted card spending in NZ rose 1.5% m/m in December to be up 1.2% y/y, the highest since February. Retail transactions were even stronger on the month rising 2% m/m, the fifth consecutive increase, but are only 0.6% y/y higher. 125bp of monetary easing and lower inflation appear to be encouraging consumers to spend again. 

• Q4 total card spending values rose 1.0% q/q after a flat Q3. Also, December ANZ consumer confidence returned to the breakeven 100 level and its highest in over three years. Real private consumption fell 0.3% q/q in Q3 but the outlook appears to be improving and Q4 is unlikely to be so weak.
• Core retail expenditure rose 1.8% m/m in December. Major categories saw growth including durables (+3.7%), consumables (+1.4%), hospitality (+1%) and apparel (+3.1%). Motor vehicle spending fell 1.3% m/m though.
• Non-retail transactions rose 1.0% m/m, while services increased 2.0% m/m.

NZ retail sales y/y%

NEW ZEALAND: Services Sector Weak But Improves In Q4

Business NZ/BNZ’s performance of services index fell to 47.9 from 49.1 but the Q4 average was still 2 points higher than Q3 at 47.7 signalling that the sector contracted at a slower rate in the final quarter of 2024. All components remain under 50 though signalling continued services weakness, as is the case with manufacturing too.

• The December drop was driven by activity, inventories and supplier deliveries. Orders were stable just below the breakeven-50 level, while employment rose 0.7 points to 47.4 (highest since August).
• Businesses remain concerned about the cost of living and the weakness in the economy. The share of negative comments in December rose to 57.5% up from 53.6% but still lower than October’s 59.1%.
• BNZ notes that the PSI remains below Australia’s services PMI, which is just in growth territory at 50.8. 

NZ PSI vs PMI manufacturing

FOREX: USD Rebounds On Trump Tariff Headlines, Yen Firmer On Lower US Yields

The USD surged on Trump tariff headlines. From just under 1300, the BBDXY index got above 1310, a +0.80% trough to peak move. We sit lower now, last around 1305.35, around +0.30% firmer versus end NY levels from Monday. 

• The USD started on the backfoot, amid carry over from the US Monday session, with news sources indicating that there would be no Day 1 tariff announcements. However, an impromptu press conference in the oval office (as Trump signed executive orders) saw the USD Rally, as Trump stated Mexico and Canada would likely be hit with 25% tariffs from Feb 1 (which is only a few weeks away).
• Not surprisingly, CAD and MXN saw the brunt of USD demand. Both currencies slumped more than 1%. USD/CAD reached 1.4516, fresh highs back to 2020. USD/MXN rose to 20.7987, just short of recent highs. Both currencies are now away from lows against the USD. USD/CAD last near 1.4420.
• Further Trump headlines stated he hasn't made a decision on universal tariffs. This, coupled with lower US yields, which have fallen today by over 9bps for the belly of the curve, has curbed USD buying interest.
• The US yield move is interesting in the context that tariffs should be seen as inflationary. It may suggest Tsy yields were already primed for such tariff announcements/threats, like those Trump made today. The 25% hike for Mexico and Canada were mentioned in 2024 after Trump won the election.
• USD/JPY is lower, aided by the USJP yield differential dip. We got to lows of 154.78, but sit slightly higher in latest dealings (last 155.00/05). Yen is still 0.40% stronger versus the USD, the only G10 currency higher against the USD so far today. Focus will be on whether we can sustain a downside break under the 50-day EMA, which is just under 155.00.
• AUD and NZD both fell as the tariff headlines crossed. However, we sit away lows, AUD/USD last 0.6250, NZD/USD around 0.5655.
• Later US January Philly Fed non-manufacturing, UK labour market, euro area/German ZEW and Canada’s December CPI data are released.

ASIA STOCKS: Asian Equities Mostly Higher Following Early Volatility

Asian stocks experienced volatile trading on Tuesday as investors reacted to US President Donald Trump's initial policy actions and trade comments. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.5% after fluctuating between gains and losses. While Trump confirmed tariffs of up to 25% on Mexico and Canada by February 1, he held off on outlining specific measures against China, leaving the door open for future negotiations.

• Trump signaled potential tariffs on Chinese goods if Beijing blocks TikTok's sale but avoided committing to immediate China-specific levies.
• Technology stocks led the region, buoyed by news of a Chinese government chip fund's investment in AI. Renewable energy and electric vehicle stocks fell after Trump withdrew the US from the Paris Agreement and rolled back environmentally-friendly policies. and shares in energy and chemical sectors declined as investors weighed Trump's trade policy.
• Goldman Sachs’ Kinger Lau forecasted a potential 20% rise in Chinese equities over the next 12 months, suggesting markets can absorb the impact of tariffs.
• APAC markets: Japanese equities mixed, with the TOPIX -0.10% while the Nikkei trades +0.10%, Hong Kong's HSI +1.20%, China's CSI 300 +0.25%, Taiwan's TAIEX +0.20%, South Korea's KOSPI +0.20%, Australia's ASX 200 +0.60%, New Zealand NZX 50 -0.30%

ASIA STOCKS: China & Hong Kong Equities Trades Higher Following Trump Comments

Chinese and Hong Kong equities saw heightened volatility earlier however all major benchmarks now trade higher, influenced by US President Donald Trump's tariff threats and a delay in the TikTok ban. The Hang Seng Index is 1%, while the HSTech Index gained 2.4%. Mainland indices like the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite are 0.4% and 0.2% higher, respectively. Semiconductor and AI-related stocks rallied on news of a major government chip fund investment, while property developer Country Garden surged 19.6% after resuming trading post-suspension.

• Trump hinted at significant tariffs on China if Beijing fails to approve a TikTok deal, he wants a JV where the US owns 50%, adding to market uncertainty.
• Semiconductor stocks are trading higher following a government-backed AI and chip fund initiatives. SMIC (+5.1%), Hua Hong Semi (+2.8%), and HG Semiconductor (+6.3%).
• Country Garden Resumes trading, with shares climbing almost 20% after a nine-month suspension, following a debt restructuring proposal.
• There is still somewhat of a cautious sentiment, with gains in Hong Kong markets were capped by pre-Lunar New Year caution and potential policy reversals by the US administration.

Gold’s Rise Continues as Tariff Focus on Mexico and Canada. 

• Gold prices continued to rise during the course of Tuesday following a Wall Street Journal Report that incoming President Trump may not implement tariffs immediately, being closely followed by potentially imminent tariffs for Mexico and Canada.
• Trump indicated that a possible tariff on all foreign imports is a possibility he is considering, something that is likely to impact gold.
• The report’s release drove the USD weaker thus supporting gold.
• Gold opened at US$2, 708.2 before moving lower briefly then rallying to $2,726.80 in the Asia trading session.
• Gold remains above all key technical levels with the upward trend entrenched
• Key technical levels are 20-day EMA $2,674.40, 50-day EMA $2,656.22, 100-day EMA $2,616.35 and 200-day EMA $2,510.28.
• Pakistan’s deal with Saudi Arabia to buy a stake in the gold mining project owned by Barrick Gold Corp remains unresolved as Pakistan officials hope to secure some refining activities within the country rather than the raw product leaving for elsewhere.
• The mining sector could be in for a massive year of M&A as BBG reports on rumours that two of the largest global mining companies, Rio Tinto and Glencore are in early stages of merger talks. 

OIL: Trump Announces Measures To Boost Demand & Supply Of US Energy

Oil prices have continued to decline today after falling over 1% on Monday. Prices jumped following US President Trump’s statement that he thinks a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico will be enacted from February 1. The US receives 4mbd from Canada, so tariffs could result in higher US fuel prices. He also declared that the SPR would be refilled, the EV mandate ended and US output increased. 

• WTI is down 0.8% to $76.75/bbl. It fell to $76.09, below initial support at $76.16, before Trump’s statements and then reached $77.18. Brent is only down 0.1% to $80.10/bbl after falling to $79.64 in early trading, holding just above support, and then rising to $80.46.
• Trump declared a “national energy emergency” to be able to increase domestic oil and gas production and reverse Biden’s climate change policies, according to Bloomberg. Uncertainty remains elevated though with no details yet or if he will even be able to use it. Energy permit regulations were also eased, while he said that crude imports from Venezuela would likely be stopped.
• With Trump planning to boost energy production, he said that if the EU wants to avoid tariffs it needs to buy more US oil & gas. EU President von der Leyen has already discussed increased LNG shipments with him.
• He also overturned Biden’s ban on offshore oil & gas drilling but it will require Congressional approval and may face legal challenges.
• The US has tightened sanctions against Russia and Iran by targeting tankers and this may be intensified. Data showed China’s crude imports from Russia in 2024 rose 1% to a record and from Malaysia, which Iranian and Venezuelan crude transits through, rose 28%, while Saudi shipments fell 9%. But that may change with some Chinese ports already preventing vessels carrying Iranian crude from docking.
• Later US January Philly Fed non-manufacturing, UK labour market, euro area/German ZEW and Canada’s December CPI data are released.

MALAYSIA: Country Wrap:  BNM on hold at tomorrow's policy meeting.

• BNM is expected to remain on hold at tomorrow's policy meeting, given the strength of data currently, and their BNM’s focus on external events, we expect the BNM to maintain their current neutral bias at this week’s meeting.               Of the 24 participants in a BBG survey, there are no forecasts for a cut in the January meeting. (source: MNI – Market News)
• The European Union and Malaysia are commencing new negotiations on a free trade agreement, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen says in a statement. (source: BBG).
• US President-elect Donald Trump’s policies risk stunting global growth and weakening demand for Malaysian chips, according to Malaysia’s Investment, Trade and Industry Minister Zafrul Aziz. (source: BBG)
• Malaysia’s KLCI is on track for a third positive day in succession, up +0.18% following yesterday’s +0.36% gain.
• MYR: a good day for the ringgit up +0.36% at 4.477.
• Bonds: a quiet day ahead of the BNM tomorrow. 10YR MGS 3.821%

SOUTH KOREA: Country Wrap:  Early Month Trade Data Disappoints.

• South Korea’s early trade data out this morning points to time not being on the side of the BOK.  Having remained on hold in the face of overwhelming market consensus for a cut, the BOK does not look vindicated when considering the weakness of the export data for the first 20 days of January.  Exports cratered -5.1% versus +6.8% prior.  Imports contracted -1.7% from +7.5% prior. (source: MNI – Market News)
• South Korea’s Arrested President to Appear at Impeachment Trial (source: BBG).
• South Korea’s government expressed concern about the “significant” impact on its economy likely to stem from US policy changes under Donald Trump and will seek talks with the US president to discuss cooperation as soon as possible. (source:  BBG).
• Korea’s KOSPI did very little hovering around where it started the day.
• KRW :  had a moderately positive day up +0.06% at 1,438.62
• Bonds: strong rally today with yields up to 5bps lower.  Best performer the 3YR down -5bps to 2.586%

ASIA FX: USD/CNH Modestly Higher On Tariff Headlines, THB Outperforms

Early negative USD/Asia sentiment was disrupted by headlines from US President Trump that Mexico and Canada would be hit with 25% tariffs on Feb 1. USD/Asia pairs moved up as these headlines crosses, but aggregate fallout has been limited. Indeed, pairs like USD/THB sit around session lows in latest dealings. 

• USD/CNH was tracking lower to 7.2520/25 on lack of tariff headwinds from Trump's inauguration, but rebounded to 7.2939 as the Mexico/Canada headlines broke. China was mentioned in the context of BRICs and Trump reiterated tariff threats made late last year and also said if the US presented China with a good deal around TikTok but it rejected this deal, fresh tariffs could be applied Trump said. USD/CNH is back around 7.2750 around latest dealings, off around 0.15% in CNH terms versus end NY levels on Monday. Trump also noted he has been to China, suggesting talks/meetings may take place between the two sides before Trump makes a fresh China specific tariff decision.
• USD/KRW spot got to lows of 1432.8 in the first part of dealing, shrugging negative export data (although this was likely impacted by the upcoming LNY in China). We recovered though back above 1440, but sit near 1439 in latest dealings, still up a touch in won terms. Spot USD/TWD is also down modestly, last near 32.70/75 (+0.20% firmer in TWD terms).
• In SEA, THB is the standout, up close to 1%. The pair last sub 34.00. This is fresh lows lack towards the start of the year/late 2024. Yen and gold gains today have likely helped baht, while the FinMin is expecting strong Q1 growth. Baht is also generally seen less exposed to trade issues compared to NEA currencies.
• USD/MYR is down to 4.4800, but up from earlier lows, around 0.30% stronger in Ringgit terms at this stage. PHP is up 0.15% to 58.40/45. USD/IDR is down slightly to 16330. 

UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL) 

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Country	Event
21/01/2025	0700/0700	***	GB	Labour Market Survey
21/01/2025	1000/1100	***	DE	ZEW Current Expectations Index
21/01/2025	-		EU	ECB's De Guindos in ECOFIN Meeting
21/01/2025	1330/0830	***	CA	CPI
21/01/2025	1330/0830	**	US	Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index
21/01/2025	1445/0945	***	US	MNI Chicago Business Barometer Seasonal Adjustment
21/01/2025	1630/1130	*	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
21/01/2025	1630/1130	*	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
21/01/2025	1800/1300	*	US	US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill
21/01/2025	1800/1300	**	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 52 Week Bill
22/01/2025	2145/1045	***	NZ	CPI inflation quarterly
22/01/2025	0001/0001	*	GB	Brightmine pay deals for whole economy
22/01/2025	0700/0700	***	GB	Public Sector Finances
22/01/2025	0700/1500	**	CN	MNI China Money Market Index (MMI)
22/01/2025	1200/0700	**	US	MBA Weekly Applications Index
22/01/2025	1330/0830	*	CA	Industrial Product and Raw Material Price Index
22/01/2025	1355/0855	**	US	Redbook Retail Sales Index