EM ASIA CREDIT: MNI EM Credit – CEEMEA and LATAM update

Aussie found support from stronger Asian equities and commodities to outperform most of the G10 on Friday with AUDUSD up 0.2% to 0.6716 off the intraday high of 0.6725. The pair is currently around 0.6712. The BBDXY USD index was down only slightly.

• AUDUSD reached a low of 0.6697 before recovering. It held above the 20-day EMA at 0.6614. The pair continues to trade above key resistance at 0.6707, 17 September high, reinforcing the bullish trend condition with the focus now on 0.6723, 21 October 2024 high.
• With the yen underperforming, AUDJPY rose 0.6% to 105.17, the intraday peak but also the highest since mid-2024. The pair has been trending higher since April this year. It has started today slightly lower at around 105.0.
• NZDUSD was flat on Friday at 0.5837 and is currently around 0.5826. It rallied from a low of 0.5818 to 0.5842. Kiwi underperformed Aussie though leaving AUDNZD 0.3% higher at 1.1512 and is currently +0.1% to 1.1522. The pair has trended higher since April as global trade risks dissipated and monetary policy expectations between the two countries diverged. It stabilized around 1.14-1.16 over November/December.
• Most equity markets were shut but the S&P e-mini was flat but the Nikkei rose 0.7% and CSI 300 +0.3%. Oil prices fell with Brent -2.3% to $60.80/bbl. Copper soared 5% and iron ore is around $104-105/t.
• There are no data or events in Australia or NZ today.  

TYH6 is dealing at 112-17, -0-01 from closing levels in today's Asia-Pac session.

• Thin holiday-related trading remains as geopolitical tensions drive flight-to-quality flows.
• Focus remains on the ongoing US blockade of Venezuela, which is aimed at regime change, although there has also been the US bombing of militants in Nigeria on Christmas Day to digest.
• President Trump and President Zelenskyy met in Florida and the former sounded optimistic on progress for a peace deal. He had spoken to Putin on the phone earlier.
• US equity futures are dealing little changed.
• On Friday, cash US tsys finished mixed, curves twisting steeper with 2s-10s holding modestly higher vs. weaker Bonds after the bell.
• Monday’s US data sees Pending Home Sales MoM (1000ET), Dallas Fed Mfg Activity (1030). FOMC minutes for the December meeting will be released at 1400ET Tuesday.

Silver jumped over 10% on Friday helped by thin holiday-related trading as geopolitical tensions drove flight-to-quality flows. The silver market has significantly lower volumes than gold and so moves can be amplified. Both precious metals found support from the ongoing US blockade of Venezuela which is aimed at regime change but also the US bombing of militants in Nigeria on Christmas Day. The US dollar finished flat on Friday but the BBDXY was down 0.8% on the week and the 2-year yield was lower. 

• Nigeria said that it would welcome further US strikes on jihadists in its country. The US also hit Islamic State in Syria last week.
• Presidents Trump and Zelenskyy met in Florida and the former sounded optimistic on progress for a peace deal. He had spoken to Putin on the phone earlier.
• Silver soared 10.3% to $79.287/oz just off the new record high of $79.314, clearing all resistance levels reinforcing bullish conditions. It rose 18.1% last week to be up 40.3% in December and 174.3% in 2025.
• Like gold, silver has been supported by lower US rate expectations, Fed independence concerns, rising government debt and geopolitical/trade issues but it has also been boosted by strong demand for tech and renewables production and low physical inventories, which will make coverage of paper purchases difficult.
• Gold was also stronger but significantly underperformed silver. It was up 1.2% to $4533.21 after reaching $4549.92. It cleared resistance at $4536.0, a Fibonacci projection, opening $4578.3 and confirming the resumption of the primary uptrend. It increased 4.5% on the week and 6.9% on the month and 72.7% this year.