MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix - W/C Nov 14

• The EU, Italy, Greece, Germany, Finland, Spain and France will all look to issue bonds in the upcoming week. We look for estimated gross nominal issuance of E33.3bln from announced operations, up from this week’s E22.8bln.
• The upcoming week will a E5.0bln EFSF redemptions (formerly 5-year) and coupons of E0.7bln (mainly Italian).
• With estimated gross issuance of E3.3bln, MNI estimates net nominal issuance of positive E27.6bln in the week ahead, up from this week’s positive E22.7bln.

Full document:

EZ221114.pdf

Week Ahead Supply:

• The EU will look to hold a syndication next week with funds for both NGEU and MFA on offer. We expect the transaction to be E8-10bln in size but have less conviction on which maturities will be on offer.
• A new 6-year Nov-28 BTP Italia will be on offer next week with a guaranteed minimum coupon of 1.60%. The first three days will be reserved for retail investors with the Thursday second round for institutional investors. Retail investors who hold to maturity will receive a bonus of 0.8%. This will be the second BTP Italia of the year after the 8-year launch in June which saw E7.261bln of retail orders and E2.179bln of institutional.
• On Monday, Greece has announced a E200mln extraordinary auction of the 1.75% Jun-32 GGB (ISIN: GR0124038721). This was added on Friday to “to provide additional liquidity on this maturity point of the GGB curve”.
• On Tuesday, Germany will look to sell E4bln of the 7-year 2.10% Nov-29 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102622).
• Also Tuesday, Finland will look to sell up to E1.5bln of 5/25-year RFGBs: up to E750mln of the 1.375% Apr-27 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000527551) and up to E750mln of the 1.375% Apr-47 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000242870).
• On Wednesday, Germany will return to the market to offer E1.5bln of the 15-year 1.00% May-38 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102598).
• Spain will come to the market Thursday with the on-the-run 3-year 0% May-25 Bono (ISIN: ES0000012K38), the off-the-run 10-year 0.70% Apr-32 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012K20) and the off-the-run 22-year 5.15% Oct-44 Obli (ISIN: ES00000124H4).
• France will then look to sell E7-8bln of MT OATs. On offer will be the 0.75% Feb-28 OAT (ISIN: FR001400AIN5), the 0.75% Nov-28 OAT (ISIN: FR0013341682) and the 0.50% May-29 OAT (ISIN: FR0013407236).
• France will also look to sell E1.0-1.5bln of OATeis on Thursday: the 0.10% Jul-31 OATei (ISIN: FR0014001N38), the 3.15% Jul-32 OATei (ISIN: FR0000188799) and the 0.10% Jul-47 OATei (ISIN: FR0013209871).