MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix - W/C Feb 13

• Italy, Germany, Spain and France will all hold auctions in the week ahead and we also pencil in syndications from the EU, Belgium and Italy. If we were to see all of these deals we could see gross issuance as high as E46.3bln, with scheduled auctions making up E29.3bln. Either way, we would look for gross nominal issuance of more than this week’s E18.5bln.
• The upcoming week sees just one redemptions, a formerly 10-year Bund for E20.5bln. Coupons total E2.7bln of which E1.3bln are German and E0.9bln Portuguese.
• With potential gross nominal issuance of up to E46.3bln next week, we look for net flows of positive E23.1bln in the week ahead, up from this week’s positive E15.3bln.

For more see the full PDF here:

EZ230213.pdf

Week Ahead Supply

• The EU has a syndication scheduled for next week. We expect the transaction to take place on Tuesday with the mandate released on Monday.
• We still look for a Belgian 20/30-year OLO next week via syndication. We would expect the mandate for this to be announced on Monday and for the auction for 20 February to be cancelled as a result. If we do not receive the mandate on Monday we expect the transaction will be delayed further.
• We also pencil in an Italian syndication. We think that the probability of this has increased following the announcement that the longest maturity BTP on offer at Tuesday’s auction is the 15-year BTP. We would expect an Italian syndication to take place potentially on Wednesday or even Friday next week. • In terms of auctions, Italy will kick off the week with on-the-run 3/7/15-year BTPs on offer: E3.0-3.5bln of the 3.50% Jan26 BTP (ISIN: IT0005514473), E3.0-3.5bln of the 3.85% Dec-29 BTP (ISIN: IT0005519787) and E1.0-1.5bln of the 3.25% Mar-38 BTP (ISIN: IT0005496770).
• On Wednesday, Germany will hold a 30-year Bund auction with E1.0bln of the 1.25% Aug-48 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102432) and E1.5bln of the 0% Aug-52 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102572) on offer.
• Spain will come to the market on Thursday to sell the on-the-run 7-year Obli as well as off-the-run 4/9-year Oblis: the 0.80% Jul-27 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012G26), the 0.80% Jul-29 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012K53) and the 2.55% Oct-32 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012K61). The auction size will be announced on Monday.
• France will then look to launch its new 3-year OAT as part of its MT OAT auction. A combined E10.0-11.5bln of the new 2.50% Sep-26 OAT, the 0.75% Feb-28 OAT (ISIN: FR001400AIN5) and the 2.50% May-30 OAT (ISIN: FR0011883966) will be on offer.
• France will return to the market later on Thursday to sell E1.25-1.75bln of linkers. On offer will be the 0.10% Mar-29 OATei (ISIN: FR0013410552), the 0.10% Mar-32 OATi (ISIN: FR0014003N51) and the 0.10% Jul-38 Green OATei (ISIN: FR001400AQH0).