MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Monitoring WTI L-T Range

Price Signal Summary - Monitoring WTI L-T Range

• A strong rally in S&P E-Minis this week highlights an extension of the reversal that started Mar 31. Note that trend signals remain bearish and for now, this suggests that gains are corrective. EUROSTOXX 50 futures are holding on to their recent gains. The contract has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs, paving the way for a climb towards 5945.47, a Fibonacci retracement point.
• This week’s rally in GBPUSD strengthens a short-term bullish theme and a continuation higher would open 1.3514, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that trend signals remain bearish. The primary trend set-up in USDJPY remains bullish and the pair continues to trade above support. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position that highlights a dominant medium-term uptrend. USDCAD has traded lower this week. A bull cycle remains intact and for now, the latest pullback appears corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position
• Recent gains in Gold appear to be corrective, however for now, the short-term bull cycle remains intact. The metal has pierced the 50-day EMA, at $4782.5. The medium-term trend set-up in Brent futures is unchanged, it remains bullish and for now, the latest pullback is considered corrective. Price is trading inside a key resistance zone between $99.00 and $88.16. 
• Trend signals in Bund futures are unchanged, they remain bearish and recent gains appear corrective - for now. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend.  Recent gains in Gilt futures appear corrective. However, note that this week’s gains signal potential for a stronger short-term recovery. A resumption of gains would open 90.74 next.

[OIL TECHS] Monitoring The Long-Term Range in WTI:

• Volatile price action in WTI futures continues to dominate recent activity, and while prices have retraced a sizeable portion of the Iran War rally, the May26 future still holds ~40% higher than pre-War levels.
• Looking at the long-term chart, it is evident that the contract is still trading inside a multi-year range, the parameters of which are $114.80 at the top and $32.40 at the base.
• Most recently, the contract has pierced the top of the range at $114.80. The last time this occurred was in the Mar - Jun period of 2022.
• From a pure technical analysis standpoint and while the range remains intact, the test above the range top suggests that: 1. The uptrend will face stiff resistance before reversing lower to establish a downtrend towards the base of the range OR 2. Before a reversal occurs, prices remain elevated for a long period (as was the case during 2011 - 2014).
• A confirmed breakout of the range top would paint an entirely different (bullish) picture and highlight potential for an appreciation into the $150.00 - $200.00 range. Understandably, the outcome of Islamabad negotiations this week will play a key part in determining the trend. A climbdown on Hormuz control from Tehran and dismantled nuclear enrichment capabilities could support scenario 1, while tighter Strait control including a possible toll system would structurally support oil prices, raising the risk of scenario 2.
• See Fig 1: https://media.marketnews.com/CL_1_Comdty_09_04_aa8a62d726.png

• The short-term chart highlights a clear uptrend as reflected by the MA set-up that remains in a bull-mode position. Key support is the 50-day EMA, currently at $85.38. A clear break of the 50-day average is required to signal a stronger short-term reversal.
• See Fig 2: https://media.marketnews.com/CLK_6_Comdty_09_04_360343ed89.png

GLOBAL: MNI Global Tech Trend Monitor - March 2026 Update

• Full document here: https://media.marketnews.com/Global_Tech_Trend_Monitor_Mar26_c2ce0a9fce.pdf
• We update our Global Tech Trend Monitor to incorporate sharp swings in asset  prices since the onset of the Iran War
• Notably, while the short-term trend in WTI crude futures is up, markets have  rarely been able to sustain a breach above a multi-decade range
• AUDJPY, meanwhile, is on the cusp of a possible major reversal, with the  August 1990 high of 122.70 a particular level of note

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Holding On To Its Recent Gains 

• RES 4: 1.1825 61.8% retracement of the Jan 27 - Mar 13 bear leg 
• RES 3: 1.1796 High Mar 2 
• RES 2: 1.1746 50.0% retracement of the Jan 27 - Mar 13 bear leg    
• RES 1: 1.1723 High Apr 09
• PRICE: 1.1691 @ 06:18 BST Apr 10
• SUP 1: 1.1589/1505 20-day EMA / Low Apr 6 and a key S/T support
• SUP 2: 1.1443/11 Low Mar 30 / Low Mar 13 & 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.1373 1.764 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb 6 - 10 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.1340 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 ‘25 - Jan 27 bull cycle

EURUSD is holding on to its recent gains. This week’s rally marks an extension of the corrective cycle. Price has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs signalling scope for an extension towards 1.1746, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that trend signals continue to highlight a dominant downtrend and this suggests gains are corrective. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.1505, the Apr 6 low. A break of it would signal a bear reversal.      

GBPUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 1.3597 61.8% retracement of the Jan 27 - Mar 31 bear leg    
• RES 3: 1.3575 High Feb 26
• RES 2: 1.3514 50.0% retracement of the Jan 27 - Mar 31 bear leg 
• RES 1: 1.3484 High Apr 8
• PRICE: 1.3417 @ 06:26 BST Apr 10
• SUP 1: 1.3287/3159 Low Apr 8 / Low Mar 31 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3125 Low Nov 26 ‘25
• SUP 3: 1.3038 Low Nov 20 ‘25 
• SUP 4: 1.3010 Low Nov 4 & 5 and a key M/T support

This week’s rally in GBPUSD strengthens a short-term bullish theme and a continuation higher would open 1.3514, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that trend signals remain bearish - moving average studies are in bear-mode position highlighting a broader dominant downtrend. This suggests that - for now - gains are corrective. Key support and the bear trigger lies at 1.3159, the Mar 31 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend.  

EURGBP TECHS: Short-Term Bull Cycle Remains Intact

• RES 4: 0.8797 High Dec 17
• RES 3: 0.8789 High Feb 27 and key resistance
• RES 2: 0.8747 76.4% retracement of the Feb 27 - Mar 16 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.8742 High Mar 31 and Apr 1
• PRICE: 0.8712 @ 06:48 BST Apr 10
• SUP 1: 0.8686 Low Apr 8  
• SUP 2: 0.8637/10 Low Mar 26 / 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8597 Low Aug 14
• SUP 4: 0.8578 Low Jul 2 ‘25 

The current short-term bull cycle in EURGBP remains intact following recent gains. Scope is seen for a climb towards 0.8747 next, the 76.4% retracement of the Feb - Mar bear leg. The pullback from recent highs is considered corrective. Note that the cross has pierced support at the 50-day EMA, at 0.8692. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. The bull trigger is at 0.8742, the Mar 31 and Apr 1 high.    

USDJPY TECHS: Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 161.95 High Jul 3 ‘24 and a major resistance
• RES 3: 161.46 1.618 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb  - 12 price swing
• RES 2: 160.79 1.500 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb  - 12 price swing
• RES 1: 160.03/160.46 High Apr 7 / High Mar 30 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 159.23 @ 07:02 BST Apr 10  
• SUP 1: 158.49 Low Apr 9
• SUP 2: 157.87 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 156.46 Low Mar 5 
• SUP 4: 155.85 Low Mar 2 

The primary trend set-up in USDJPY remains bullish and the pair continues to trade above support. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position that highlights a dominant medium-term uptrend. Scope is seen for a climb towards 160.79 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch lies at 157.87, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement.

EURJPY TECHS: Bull Cycle Extends  

• RES 4: 187.44 1.764 proj of the Mar 16 - 27 - 30 price swing   
• RES 3: 187.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 186.87 High Jan 23 and a key M/T resistance
• RES 1: 186.36 High Feb 9
• PRICE: 186.19 @ 07:20 BST Apr 10
• SUP 1: 184.87 Low Apr 9
• SUP 2: 184.18 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 183.67 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 182.59 Low Mar 30 

Strong gains this week in EURJPY strengthen the current bullish theme. The cross has cleared a key short-term resistance at 184.77, the Feb 25 high. The break highlights a bullish reversal and note that price remains inside a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 ‘25 low. Sights are on 186.36 next, the Feb 9 high. A break of this hurdle would open 186.87, the Jan 23 high and key resistance. Initial firm support to watch is 184.18, the 20-day EMA.       

AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Theme

• RES 4: 0.7187 High Mar 11 and key resistance
• RES 3: 0.7161 High Mar 12    
• RES 2: 0.7103 76.4% retracement of the Mar 11 - 30 bear leg 
• RES 1: 0.7095 High Apr 9
• PRICE: 0.7064 @ 08:03 BST Apr 10
• SUP 1: 0.6967 50-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 0.6876 Low Apr 6
• SUP 3: 0.6833 Low Mar 30 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.6727 Trendline support drawn from the Apr 9 ‘25 low  

A bullish theme in AUDUSD remains intact with price trading above the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The setup in these two averages is bullish - highlighting a dominant uptrend. An extension would open 0.7103, a Fibonacci retracement, ahead of key resistance and bull trigger at 0.7187, the Mar 11 high. First support to watch lies at 0.6967, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the 50-day average would undermine the bull theme.   

USDCAD TECHS: Retracement Mode

• RES 4: 1.4051 High Nov 28 
• RES 3: 1.4015 High Dec 2 ‘25
• RES 2: 1.3985 76.4% retracement of the Nov 5 ‘25 - Jan 30 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.3930/67 High Apr 7 / High Mar 31 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.3833 @ 08:08 BST Apr 10
• SUP 1: 1.3805 Low Apr 09 
• SUP 2: 1.3770 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 1.3670 Low Mar 23 and a key short-term support
• SUP 4: 1.3526 Low Mar 09

USDCAD has traded lower this week. A bull cycle remains intact and for now, the latest pullback appears corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Support at the 50-day EMA lies at 1.3770. A clear break of the 50-day average is required to signal a stronger reversal. A reversal higher would refocus attention on 1.3967, the Mar 31 high and bull trigger.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M6) Trend Structure Remains Bearish                       

• RES 4: 127.51 61.8% retracement of the Mar 2 - 27 bear leg  
• RES 3: 127.20 High Mar 11
• RES 2: 126.85 High Mar 18
• RES 1: 126.51/64 50-day EMA / High Apr 8           
• PRICE: 125.51 @ 05:53 BST Apr 10 
• SUP 1: 124.65/25 Low Apr 7 / Low Mar 27 and the bear trigger      
• SUP 2: 124.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 123.86 1.618 proj of the Mar 10 - 13 - 18 price swing
• SUP 4: 123.59 1.764 proj of the Mar 10 - 13 - 18 price swing

Trend signals in Bund futures are unchanged, they remain bearish and recent gains appear corrective - for now. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. The next important resistance is 126.51, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of it would strengthen a bull theme. A reversal lower would highlight the end of the correction and open the bear trigger at 124.25, the Mar 27 low.                                 

BOBL TECHS: (M6) Short-Term Corrective Bull Cycle         

• RES 4: 116.925 61.8% retracement of the Mar 2 - 27 bear leg  
• RES 3: 116.770 High Mar 11    
• RES 2: 116.500 50.0% retracement of the Mar 2 - 27 bear leg
• RES 1: 116.240 High Apr 8
• PRICE: 115.660 @ 05:57 BST Apr 10
• SUP 1: 114.950/114.700 Low Apr 7 / Low Mar 27 and the bear trigger   
• SUP 2: 114.630 2.000 proj of the Mar 2 - 3 - 4 price swing  
• SUP 3: 114.295 2.236 proj of the Mar 2 - 3 - 4 price swing   
• SUP 4: 114.000 Round number support

The trend set-up in Bobl futures is bearish and for now, the latest bounce is considered corrective. A continuation higher would open 116.500, a Fibonacci retracement point. Note that recent gains have allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 114.700, the Mar 27 low. A break of this level would resume the recent downtrend.      

SCHATZ TECHS: (M6) Corrective Mode          

• RES 4: 106.575 High Mar 10  
• RES 3: 106.433 61.8% retracement of the Mar 2 - 23 bear leg 
• RES 2: 106.245 50.0% retracement of the Mar 2 - 23 bear leg
• RES 1: 106.120 High Mar 8 
• PRICE: 105.900 @ 06:17 BST Apr 10
• SUP 1: 105.525/450 Low Apr 7 / Low Mar 30 / 23 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 105.433 2.500 proj of the Mar 2 - 3 - 4 price swing 
• SUP 3: 105.400 Round number support
• SUP 4: 105.371 2.618 projection of the Mar 2 - 3 - 4 price swing

A primary bear cycle in Schatz futures remains intact and the latest recovery appears corrective. A continuation higher would signal scope for an extension towards 106.245, a Fibonacci retracement point. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. The bear trigger has been defined at 105.450, the Mar 23 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear leg.                        

GILT TECHS: (M6) Short-Term Bull Theme

• RES 4: 91.52 High Mar 10 
• RES 3: 91.00 Round number resistance  
• RES 2: 90.74 50.0% retracement of the Feb 27 - Mar 23 bear leg  
• RES 1: 90.21 High Apr 9      
• PRICE: 88.83 @ Close Apr 9
• SUP 1: 88.60 Low Apr 9   
• SUP 2: 87.59 Low Apr 7 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 87.13 Low Mar 30 
• SUP 4: 85.91 Low MAr 23 and a key support

Recent gains in Gilt futures appear corrective. However, note that this week’s gains signal potential for a stronger short-term recovery. A resumption of gains would open 90.74 next, a Fibonacci retracement, ahead of the 91.00 handle. The initial key short-term support to watch lies at 87.59, the Apr 7 low. Clearance of this level would be a bearish development and signal the end of the corrective cycle.                         

BTP TECHS: (M6) Recent Gains Appear Corrective       

• RES 4: 122.04 High Feb 27 and key resistance   
• RES 3: 120.98 High Mar 3
• RES 2: 120.22 76.4% retracement of the Feb 27  -Mar 27 bear cycle 
• RES 1: 119.09 61.8% retracement of the Feb 27  -Mar 27 bear cycle
• PRICE: 117.34 @ Close Apr 9
• SUP 1: 116.99 High Apr 7 and a gap low on the daily chart     
• SUP 2: 115.58 Low Apr 7
• SUP 3: 114.32 Low Mar 27 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 114.00 Round number support

Recent gains in BTP futures highlight a stronger reversal condition and signal scope for a continuation of the current retracement - a correction. Potential is seen for a test of 119.09, 61.8% of the bear leg between Feb 27 - Mar 27. Clearance of this level would open 120.22, the 76.4% retracement. On the downside, a reversal lower would highlight the end of the corrective phase and refocus attention on key support at 114.32, the Mar 27 low.                                 

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M6) Bullish Short-Term Theme      

• RES 4: 61430.00 High Feb 26 and a key resistance 
• RES 3: 6015.00 High Mar 2
• RES 2: 5945.47 76.4% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 23 bear leg 
• RES 1: 5884.00 High Apr 9 
• PRICE: 5858.00 @ 06:39 BST Apr 10  
• SUP 1: 5724.80 50-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 5525.00 Low Apr 2 and a key short-term support
• SUP 3: 5341.00 Low Mar 30 
• SUP 4: 5306.00 Low Mar 23 and the bear trigger 

EUROSTOXX 50 futures are holding on to their recent gains. The contract has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs, paving the way for a climb towards 5945.47, a Fibonacci retracement point. Note that a break of 5945.47 would expose the key resistance and bull trigger at 6143.00, the Feb 26 high. First key support to watch lies at 5525.00, the Apr 2 low. A move lower and a breach of this support would highlight a reversal.     

E-MINI S&P: (M6) Short-Term Rally Extends   

• RES 4: 7035.00 High Feb 25    
• RES 3: 6963.00 High Mar 2  
• RES 2: 6921.09 76.4% retracement of the Jan 28 - Mar 31 bear leg  
• RES 1: 6876.00 High Apr 9       
• PRICE: 6857.25 @ 07:27 BST Apr 10
• SUP 1: 6770.87 20-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 6685.83 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 6567.00/6503.75 Low Apr 6 and key S/T support / Low Apr 2 
• SUP 4: 6353.25 Low Mar 31 and the bear trigger

A strong rally in S&P E-Minis this week highlights an extension of the reversal that started Mar 31. Note that trend signals remain bearish and for now, this suggests that gains are corrective. A continuation higher would open 6921.09 next, a Fibonacci retracement point. Key medium-term resistance and the bull trigger is far off at 7096.50, the Jan 28 high. Initial firm support to watch lies at 6567.00, the Apr 6 low.   

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M6) Monitoring Support           

• RES 4: $125.19 - High Jun 14 ‘22 (cont) and a key resistance 
• RES 3: $121.88 - High Jun 15 ‘22 (cont) 
• RES 2: $120.08 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar ‘22 - Apr ‘25 Bear leg
• RES 1: $99.00/112.12 - 20-day EMA / High Mar 19 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $96.77 @ 07:17 BST Apr 10
• SUP 1: $90.40 - Low Apr 8   
• SUP 2: $88.16 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $83.96 - Low Mar 11   
• SUP 4: $78.97 - Low Mar 10 

The medium-term trend set-up in Brent futures is unchanged, it remains bullish and for now, the latest pullback is considered corrective. Price is trading inside a key resistance zone between $99.00 and $88.16, the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A clear break of the 50-day average would signal a short-term reversal and suggest potential for a deeper retracement. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at $112.12, the Mar 19 high.                  

WTI TECHS: (K6) Corrective Pullback       

• RES 4: $123.68 - High Jun 14 ‘22 (cont) and a key resistance
• RES 3: $120.00 - Psychological round number  
• RES 2: $118.99 - 1.000 proj of the Mar 23 - 31 - Apr 1 price swing  
• RES 1: $117.63 - High Apr 7 and the bull trigger        
• PRICE: $98.59 @ 07:19 BST Apr 10
• SUP 1: $91.05 - Low Apr 8
• SUP 2: $85.87 - 50-day  EMA
• SUP 3: $75.64 - Low Mar 10 
• SUP 4: $69.00 - Low Mar 2  

A sharp pullback in WTI futures this week is for now, considered corrective. The contract has traded through the 20-day EMA and this exposes a key support around the 50-day EMA, at $85.87. A clear break of the 50-day average is required to highlight a stronger short-term reversal. On the upside key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at $117.63, the Apr 7 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.   

GOLD TECHS: Has Pierced The 50-Day EMA       

• RES 4: $5107.6 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 2 - 23 bear leg 
• RES 3: $5000.0 - Round number resistance 
• RES 2: $4914.9 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar 2 - 23 bear leg 
• RES 1: $4856.8 - High Apr 8                         
• PRICE: $4755.8 @ 07:32 BST Apr 10 
• SUP 1: $4554.2 Low Apr 2 and a key short-term support
• SUP 2: $4420.1 - Low Mar 30
• SUP 3: $4306.4 - Low Mar 24
• SUP 4: $4099.2 - Low Mar 23 and the bear trigger

Recent gains in Gold appear to be corrective, however for now, the short-term bull cycle remains intact. The metal has pierced the 50-day EMA, at $4782.5. This signals scope for an extension towards $4914.9, a Fibonacci retracement point. Clearance of this level would open the $5000.0 handle. Initial firm support to watch lies at $4554.2, the Apr 2 low. Clearance of this level would be bearish.                             

SILVER TECHS: Trend Signals Remain Bearish   

• RES 4: $107.341 - 76.4% retracement of the Jan 29 - Mar 23 sell-off
• RES 3: $97.804 - High Mar 2
• RES 2: $90.015 - High Mar 10 
• RES 1: $77.355/644 - 50-day EMA / High Apr 8       
• PRICE: $75.515 @ 08:19 BST Apr 10
• SUP 1: $61.007 - Low Mar 23 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $60.000 - Round number support 
• SUP 3: $56.496 - Low Dec 4 ‘25
• SUP 4: $53.345 - Low Nov 28 ‘25 

A bear cycle in Silver remains intact and S/T gains are considered corrective. The breach of $64.098, the Feb 6 low and bear trigger, reinforces a bear theme. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the M/T downtrend plus open $60.00 and below. Key resistance is $97.804, the Mar 2 high. Initial firm resistance is $77.355, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a stronger retracement.