Price Signal Summary – GBP/USD Cracks Major Trendline
Figure 1: GBP/USD cracks major uptrendline, strengthens a bearish threat
Source: MNI/Bloomberg Finance L.P.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Extends
A corrective cycle in EURUSD remains in play and the pair traded lower Tuesday. Support at the 20-day EMA, at 1.1655, has been cleared. This shifts the focus to the 50-day EMA, at 1.1505. A clear break of the average is required to highlight a stronger reversal. For now, the move down appears corrective and trend signals continue to highlight a dominant uptrend. A resumption of gains would open 1.1829, the Jul 1 high and a bull trigger.
GBPUSD TECHS: Breaches Trendline Support
A short-term bear cycle in GBPUSD remains in place and this week’s move down reinforces current bearish conditions. The pair has breached both 20- and 50-day EMAs. Yesterday’s move down resulted in a break of trendline support at 1.3440. The trendline is drawn from the Jan 13 low and the breach strengthens a bearish threat, exposing 1.3371 initially, the Jun 23 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.3555, the 20-day EMA.
EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Price Sequence
A bullish condition in EURGBP remains intact and the cross is trading closer to its recent highs. Fresh cycle highs this week maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Scope is seen for a climb towards key resistance at 0.8738, the Apr 11 high. Support to watch lies at 0.8599, the 20-day EMA.
USDJPY TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
A short-term bull cycle in USDJPY remains firmly in place and this week’s gains reinforce current conditions. The latest rally has resulted in a breach of resistance at 148.03, the Jun 23 high, and a move through key resistance at 148.65, the May 12 high. Clearance of both levels strengthens the bull theme and opens 149.38, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, support to watch is 145.44, the 50-day EMA.
EURJPY TECHS: Northbound
The trend condition in EURJPY is unchanged, a bull phase is in play and fresh cycle highs this week reinforce current conditions. The move higher also maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. Sights are on 173.43, the Jul 12 ‘24 high. Support to watch lies at 170.03, the 20-day EMA.
AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
The trend set-up in AUDUSD remains bullish and the latest pullback - for now - appears corrective. Resistance at 0.6590 has recently been pierced. A clear break of this price point would strengthen a bullish condition and confirm a resumption of the uptrend plus maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Scope is seen for a climb towards 0.6603 next, the Nov 11 2024 high. Initial firm support to watch is 0.6488, the 50-day EMA.
USDCAD TECHS: Trend Signals Remain Bearish
USDCAD is trading at its recent highs. Short-term gains appear corrective and the trend structure remains bearish. Resistance to watch is the 50-day EMA, at 1.3749. A clear break of the EMA would signal scope for a stronger recovery and highlight a possible reversal. For bears, sights are on key support at 1.3540, the Jun 16 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 1.3503, a Fibonacci projection.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (U5) Bear Cycle Remains Intact
Bund futures have recovered from their latest lows, however, a bear cycle remains intact. Recent weakness resulted in a break of 129.30, the May 22 low. The breach strengthens the current bearish theme and exposes the next key support at 128.97, the May 14 low and a bear trigger. On the upside, resistance around the the 50-day EMA, at 130.28, marks the key short-term hurdle. A clear breach of it is required to highlight a possible reversal.
BOBL TECHS: (U5) Monitoring Resistance
A bear cycle in Bobl futures remains intact. Last week’s move down resulted in a breach of 117.530, the Jun 5 low. The break highlights a stronger reversal and cancels a recent bull theme. 117.210, a 1.000 projection of the Jun 13 - 16 - 20 price swing, has been pierced. Clearance of this level would open the 117.000 handle. Resistance to watch is 117.610, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of it would signal a possible reversal.
SCHATZ TECHS: (U5) Range Breakout
Schatz futures traded lower last week and for now, a bear cycle remains in play and recent gains appear corrective. The latest move down has resulted in a breach of support at 107.195 and 107.180, the Jun 6 and 23 lows respectively. This highlights a range breakout and strengthens a short-term bearish theme. Sights are on 107.112 next, a Fibonacci projection, and the 117.000 handle. Initial firm resistance to watch is 107.244, the 20-day EMA.
GILT TECHS: (U5) Fresh Short-Term trend Low
A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and Tuesday’s volatile bearish session reinforces this theme. The contract has recently breached support at 91.63, the Jul 2 low. Price has also traded through 91.50, the 61.8% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg. The move down exposes 90.97, the 76.4% retracement point. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish theme. Initial firm resistance is at 92.29, the 20-day EMA.
BTP TECHS: (U5) Corrective Cycle
The trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged, it remains bullish. However, for now, a corrective cycle is in play and this has resulted in a breach of support at 120.09, the Jul 23 low. The break signals scope for a deeper retracement, potentially towards 118.87, the May 21 low. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 121.73, the Jun 13 high. Initial resistance to watch is 120.56, the 20-day EMA.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U5) Pullback Considered Corrective
A bull cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains in play and the latest pullback still appears corrective. Recent gains have exposed key resistance and the bull trigger at 5486.00, the May 20 high. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would confirm a resumption of the medium-term bull cycle that began Apr 7 and open the 5500.00 handle. Support to watch lies at 5281.00, the low on Jul 1 and 4. A break of this price point would strengthen a bearish threat.
E-MINI S&P: (U5) Trading Closer To Its Recent Highs
S&P E-Minis are trading in a range, closer to their recent highs. The trend condition remains bullish. Recent activity has resulted in a break of resistance at 6128.75, the Jun 11 high. The breach confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started Apr 7. This was followed by a break of key resistance and a bull trigger at 6277.50, the Feb 21 high. Sights are on 6356.12, a Fibonacci projection. Key support is at the 50-day EMA, at 6073.00.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (U5) SHort-Term Recovery Appears Corrective
Short-term conditions in Brent futures remain bearish and gains since Jun 30 appear corrective. The sharp sell-off on Jun 23 continues to highlight a bearish theme. Recent weakness has resulted in a print below the 50-day EMA and note too that $66.17, 61.8% of the May 5 - Jun 23 bull leg, has been pierced. A resumption of the downtrend would expose $61.39, the May 30 low. Initial resistance to watch is $72.66, a Fibonacci retracement point.
WTI TECHS: (Q5) Still Looking For Weakness
WTI futures maintain a bearish tone. The sharp reversal from the Jun 23 high continues to highlight scope for an extension lower and this suggests that recent gains have been corrective. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $65.50. The average has been pierced, a clear break of it would expose $58.87, the May 30 low. Initial resistance to monitor is $71.20, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 24 high-low range.
GOLD TECHS: Support Remains Intact
A bull cycle in Gold that started Jun 30, remains intact and the yellow metal is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Note that medium-term trend conditions are bullish - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. An extension would expose $3395.1, the Jun 23 high, and $3451.3, the Jun 16 high. On the downside, the bear trigger is $3248.7, the Jun 30 low. First support to watch is 3282.8, the Jul 9 low.
SILVER TECHS: Bullish Trend Condition
Trend conditions in Silver are unchanged, a strong impulsive bull cycle remains intact and recent gains reinforce current conditions. The metal on Jul 11 cleared key short-term resistance at $37.317, the Jun 18 high. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and sights are on the $39.655 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at $36.750, the 20-day EMA.