MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - GBP Bull Flag

Price Signal Summary – GBP Bull Flag

• A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and today’s pullback appears corrective - for now. Note that recent gains signal the likely end of the corrective cycle between Oct 30 and Nov 21. A bull cycle in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains intact and short-term weakness is considered corrective - for now. Price is trading above the 20- and 50-day EMAs.
• The latest pause in GBPUSD appears to have been a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. A fresh cycle high confirms a resumption of the current bull leg and scope is seen for a climb towards 1.3452 next. The move down between Nov 20 - Dec 5 in USDJPY appears to have been a correction. The recovery from the Dec 5 low highlights the end of the corrective phase. A strong impulsive bull wave in AUDUSD remains intact and sights are on key resistance at 0.6707. Note that moving average studies have recently crossed and are in a bull-mode position, reinforcing current conditions. 
• Gold is in consolidation mode. The trend set-up remains bullish. The bear phase between Oct 20 and 28 appears to have been a correction and note that the recovery since Oct 28 signals the end of that corrective cycle. A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term downtrend.
• Bund futures remain in a bear-mode cycle following a recent impulsive sell-off and this week’s initial downward acceleration. Scope is seen for an extension towards the 127.00 handle. Key short-term resistance is 128.75. Recent weakness in Gilt futures has exposed the next important support at 90.53, the Nov 25 and 26 low. A breach of this level would undermine a bull theme and instead signal scope for a deeper retracement.  

[CROSS ASSET] MNI Tech Trend Monitor - November Refresh

• We refresh our Global Tech Trend Monitor, adding longer-term techs for USDMXN, EURHUF, EURGBP, Bitcoin and the USD Index as well as refreshing levels for Spot Gold, Silver, USDJPY, UK Gilt Yields and the Europe Banking Stock Index (SX7E).
• See full document here: https://emedia.marketnews.com/marketnewsintl/TechTrendMonitorNov.pdf

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Fresh Short-Term Cycle High    

• RES 4: 1.1779 High Oct 1   
• RES 3: 1.1747 61.8% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 5 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.1728 High Oct 17
• RES 1: 1.1707 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 1.1684 @ 06:12 GMT Dec 11
• SUP 1: 1.1615 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 1.1547 Low Nov 26
• SUP 3: 1.1491/1469 Low Nov 21
• SUP 4: 1.1469 Low Nov 5 and the bear trigger  

A fresh short-term cycle high in EURUSD yesterday reinforces a bull theme. The recent breach of key short-term resistance at 1.1656, the Nov 13 high and a bull trigger, highlights a potential reversal. Scope is seen for an extension towards 1.1747 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial support to watch is 1.1615, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of the EMA would be bearish and highlight a possible reversal.     

GBPUSD TECHS: Uptrend Remains Intact      

• RES 4: 1.3471 High Oct 17   
• RES 3: 1.3452 50.0% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 4 bear leg 
• RES 2: 1.3416 High Oct 21
• RES 1: 1.3392 High Dec 04
• PRICE: 1.3360 @ 06:28 GMT Dec 11
• SUP 1: 1.3272 50-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 1.3254 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3180/25 Low Dec 2 / Low Nov 26 
• SUP 4: 1.3038/10 Low Nov 20 / Low Nov 4 & 5 and the bear trigger       

The latest pause in GBPUSD appears to have been a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. A fresh cycle high confirms a resumption of the current bull leg and scope is seen for a climb towards 1.3452 next, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm support is seen at 1.3254, the 20-day EMA. A move below this average would be a bearish development and signal a possible reversal.

EURGBP TECHS: Corrective Phase Still In Play 

• RES 4: 0.8840 High Nov 20   
• RES 3: 0.8818 High Nov 26 
• RES 2: 0.8802 High Dec 2 and a key near-term resistance 
• RES 1: 0.8764 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8744 @ 06:47 GMT Dec 11
• SUP 1: 0.8721 Low Dec 9
• SUP 2: 0.8706 76.4% retracement of the Oct 8 - Nov 14 bull leg
• SUP 3: 0.8670 Low Oct 21   
• SUP 4: 0.8656 Low Oct 8 and a key support  

A corrective bear cycle in EURGBP remains intact and the cross is trading at its recent lows. The breach of the 50-day EMA, currently at 0.8752, highlights a stronger reversal plus scope for a deeper retracement, towards 0.8706, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance to watch is unchanged at 0.8802, the Dec 2 high. Clearance of this hurdle would be a bullish development and signal a resumption of the uptrend.         

USDJPY TECHS: Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 158.87 High Jan 10 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 158.29 2.618 projection of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing
• RES 2: 158.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 1: 156.95/157.89 High Dec 9 / High Nov 20 and bull trigger 
• PRICE: 156.06 @ 07:03 GMT Dec 11
• SUP 1: 155.56/154.35 20-day EMA / Low Dec 5 
• SUP 2: 153.80 50-day EMA and a key support area  
• SUP 3: 152.82 Low Nov 7 
• SUP 4: 151.54 Low Oct 29 

The move down between Nov 20 - Dec 5 in USDJPY appears to have been a correction. The recovery from the Dec 5 low highlights the end of the corrective phase. MA studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend and a resumption of gains would open 158.00. Key short-term support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA at 153.80. A clear breach of the average would signal scope for a deeper retracement.

EURJPY TECHS: Clears Bull Trigger

• RES 4: 184.34 2.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• RES 3: 184.21 Bull channel top drawn from the Feb 28 low
• RES 2: 183.07 2.000 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing 
• RES 1: 182.64 High Dec 09
• PRICE: 182.10 @ 16:35 GMT Dec 10
• SUP 1: 180.50 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 178.98/178.47 Low Nov 14 / 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 177.15 Low Nov 10
• SUP 4: 176.08 Bull channel support drawn from the Feb 28 low

The trend needle in EURJPY continues to point north and a fresh cycle high this week reinforces current conditions. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The cross has cleared 182.01, the Nov 20 high and bull trigger. The breach confirms a resumption of the uptrend. Sights are on 184.21, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 low. First key support is 180.50, the 20-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bull-Wave Remains Intact     

• RES 4: 0.6759 High Oct 11 ‘24   
• RES 3: 0.6723 High Oct 21 ‘24 
• RES 2: 0.6707 High Sep 17 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6686 High Dec 10
• PRICE: 0.6641 @ 08:02 GMT Dec 11 
• SUP 1: 0.6609/6571 Low Dec 9 / 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 0.6517 Low Nov 27 
• SUP 3: 0.6466/21 Low Nov 26 / 21 
• SUP 4: 0.6415 Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger 

A strong impulsive bull wave in AUDUSD remains intact and sights are on key resistance at 0.6707. Note that moving average studies have recently crossed and are in a bull-mode position, reinforcing current conditions. A breach of 0.6707 would strengthen a bullish theme. From a near-term perspective, the trend is overbought. A pullback would allow this condition to unwind. Key support to watch is at 0.6571, the 20-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Bearish Trend Sequence

• RES 4: 1.4140 High Nov 5 and a key resistance   
• RES 3: 1.4051 High Nov 28 
• RES 2: 1.3954 20-day EMA  
• RES 1: 1.3888 Low Oct 29  
• PRICE: 1.3819 @ 08:06 GMT Dec 11
• SUP 1: 1.3784 Low Dec 10
• SUP 2: 1.3769 61.8% retracement of the Jun 16 - Nov 6 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 1.3727 Low Sep17 
• SUP 4: 1.3682 76.4% retracement of the Jun 16 - Nov 6 bull cycle  

A bear theme in USDCAD remains intact - reinforced by yesterday’s extension lower. The fresh cycle low maintains the current bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and signals scope for an extension towards 1.3769 next, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.3954, the 20-day EMA. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.   

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H6) Doji Reversal Candle                      

• RES 4: 129.55 High Nov 26 and key resistance    
• RES 3: 129.24 High Dec 1    
• RES 2: 128.75 High Dec 3 and a key resistance 
• RES 1: 128.08/58 High Dec 8 / 20-day EMA           
• PRICE: 127.69 @ 05:44 GMT Dec 11 
• SUP 1: 127.05 Low Dec 10         
• SUP 2: 127.00 Round number support 
• SUP 3: 126.81 2.764 projection of the Nov 12 - 20 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 126.58 3.000 projection of the Nov 12 - 20 - 26 price swing

Bund futures remain in a bear-mode cycle following a recent impulsive sell-off and this week’s initial downward acceleration. Scope is seen for an extension towards the 127.00 handle. Key short-term resistance is 128.75, the Dec 3 high. Note that the contract has entered oversold territory. A stronger corrective bounce would allow this oversold condition to unwind. Yesterday’s price pattern is a doji candle - a short-term reversal signal.               

BOBL TECHS: (H6) Bounce Considered Corrective        

• RES 4: 117.140 High Nov 26 and key resistance       
• RES 3: 117.070 High Nov 27  
• RES 2: 116.960 High Dec 1   
• RES 1: 116.320/770 High Dec 8 / 3   
• PRICE: 116.100 @ 06:03 GMT Dec 11 
• SUP 1: 115.720 Low Dec 10  
• SUP 2: 115.660.4.000 proj of the Nov 6 - 14 - 26 price swing  
• SUP 3: 115.600 Round number support
• SUP 4: 115.573 4.236 proj of the Nov 6 - 14 - 26 price swing

The trend theme in Bobl futures remains bearish - the latest impulsive sell-off reinforces a bear theme. Price has breached support at 116.790, the Nov 14 and 20 low. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started mid-October. Sights are on 115.660 next, a Fibonacci projection. Note that the trend is oversold, stronger recovery would allow this set-up to unwind. First important resistance is at 116.770, the Dec 3 high.     

SCHATZ TECHS: (H6) Oversold But Remains Bearish         

• RES 4: 106.975 High Dec 1 
• RES 3: 106.945 High Dec 3 and a key short-term resistance 
• RES 2: 106.885 Low Dec 2   
• RES 1: 106.835 High Dec 8  
• PRICE: 106.730 @ 06:02 GMT Dec 11
• SUP 1: 106.630 Low Dec 10  
• SUP 2: 106.621 2.236 proj of the Nov 26 - Dec 2 - 3 minor price swing
• SUP 3: 106.600 2.382 proj of the Nov 26 - Dec 2 - 3 minor price swing
• SUP 4: 106.583 2.500 proj of the Nov 26 - Dec 2 - 3 minor price swing 

A recent sharp sell-off in Schatz futures confirms a continuation of a bear cycle that started mid-October. Note that on the continuation chart, moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 106.621 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 106.945, the Dec 3 high. A corrective bounce would allow an oversold trend condition to unwind.              

GILT TECHS: (H6) Monitoring Support                    

• RES 4: 92.55 High Nov 11 
• RES 3: 92.31 High Nov 12          
• RES 2: 92.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 91.29/93 High Dec 9 / High Nov 27      
• PRICE: 91.08 @ Close Dec 10
• SUP 1: 90.62/90.53 Low Dec 8 / Low Nov 25 & 26       
• SUP 2: 90.28 Low Nov 21  
• SUP 3: 90.00 Round number support    
• SUP 4: 89.86 Low Nov 19 and the bear trigger     

Recent weakness in Gilt futures has exposed the next important support at 90.53, the Nov 25 and 26 low. A breach of this level would undermine a bull theme and instead signal scope for a deeper retracement towards 89.86, the Nov 19 low and a bear trigger. For bulls, a resumption of gains would instead signal scope for a climb towards resistance at 92.55, the Nov 11 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is 91.93, the Nov 27 high.               

BTP TECHS: (H6) Gains Would Unwind An Oversold Condition      

• RES 4: 121.33 High Oct 21 and a key resistance area 
• RES 3: 121.37 High Nov 13 
• RES 2: 121.24 High Nov 26 
• RES 1: 120.17/77 Low Nov 20 / High Dec 3   
• PRICE: 119.55 @ Close Dec 10
• SUP 1: 119.12 1.764 proj of the Nov 13 - 20 - 26 price swing          
• SUP 2: 118.00 Round number support  
• SUP 3: 118.84 2.000 proj of the Nov 13 - 20 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 118.56 2.236 proj of the Nov 13 - 20 - 26 price swing

BTP futures have this week traded through an important support at 120.17, the Nov 20 low. This highlights the fact that a bearish phase remains in play for now, signalling scope for a deeper short-term retracement. The impulsive sell-off opens 119.12 next, a Fibonacci projection. The contract is oversold, a recovery would allow this set-up to unwind. Initial firm resistance to watch is 120.17, the Nov 20 low.                      

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z5) Key Resistance Remains Exposed     

• RES 4: 5858.59 1.618 proj of the Aug 1 - 22 - Sep 2 price swing       
• RES 3: 5825.00 High Nov 13 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 5800.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 1: 5742.40/5758.00 76.4% of Nov 13 - 21 bear leg / High Dec 9         
• PRICE: 5704.00 @ 06:37 GMT Dec 11
• SUP 1: 5677.20 20-day EMA     
• SUP 2: 5632.90 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 5518.00 Low Nov 25
• SUP 4: 5475.00 Low Nov 21 and the bear trigger       

A bull cycle in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains intact and short-term weakness is considered corrective - for now. Price is trading above the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and sights are on 5742.40 next (pierced), 76.4% of the Nov 13 - 21 bear leg. A clear breach of this price point would pave the way for an extension towards 5825.00, the Nov 13 high and a key resistance. First key support to watch lies at 5632.90, the 50-day EMA.               

E-MINI S&P: (Z5) Corrective Pullback                

• RES 4: 7000.00 Psychological round number
• RES 3: 6953.75 High Oct 30 and bull trigger
• RES 2: 6918.50 High Oct 31
• RES 1: 6908.00 High Dec 10    
• PRICE: 6835.75 @ 07:22 GMT Dec 11
• SUP 1: 6815.09 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 6762.27 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 6674.50 Low Nov 25 
• SUP 4: 6525.00 Low Nov 21 and a key support

A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and today’s pullback appears corrective - for now. Note that recent gains signal the likely end of the corrective cycle between Oct 30 and Nov 21. A resumption of gains would highlight potential for a move towards the key resistance and bull trigger at 6953.75, the Oct 30 high. Key support lies at 6525.00, the Nov 21 low. First support to watch is at 6815.09, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (G6) Bear Threat            

• RES 4: $70.86 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 23 - Oct 17 bear leg  
• RES 3: $70.33 - High Jul 30
• RES 2: $68.86 - High Sep 26 and a key resistance 
• RES 1: $65.25 - High Oct 24 
• PRICE: $61.82 @ 07:09 GMT Dec 11 
• SUP 1: $59.93 - Low Nov 20 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: $58.92 - Low May 5
• SUP 3: $58.11 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: $56.22 - 2.00 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing 

A bear threat in Brent futures remains present and this is highlighted by moving average studies that are in a bear-mode condition. A continuation lower would expose key support and the bear trigger at $59.93, the Oct 20 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle. Key short-term resistance to watch has been defined at $65.25, the Oct 24 high. A breach of this level would instead signal scope for a stronger correction.       

WTI TECHS: (F6) Bearish Outlook           

• RES 4: $71.38 - High Jun 23 and a key medium-term resistance 
• RES 3: $67.16 - High Jul 30
• RES 2: $65.33 - High Sep 26 and key resistance 
• RES 1: $61.84 - High Oct 24    
• PRICE: $58.14 @ 07:16 GMT Dec 11
• SUP 1: $55.99 - Low Oct 20 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $55.33 - Low May 1
• SUP 3: $54.72 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: $53.53 - 1.764 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing   

A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term downtrend. A stronger resumption of the bear leg would open key support and the bear trigger at $55.99, the Oct 20 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend. Key short-term resistance to watch is $61.84, the Oct 24 high.

GOLD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North          

• RES 4: $4404.9 - 3.500 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: $4400.0 - Round number resistance  
• RES 2: $4381.5 - High Oct 20 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $4264.7 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 20 - 28 correction                   
• PRICE: $4212.8 @ 07:23 GMT Dec 11 
• SUP 1: $4155.2/4044.0 - 20- and 50-day EMA values 
• SUP 2: $3886.6 - Low Oct 28 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 3: $3800.00 Round number support 
• SUP 4: $3760.9 - Low Sep 29 

Gold is in consolidation mode. The trend set-up remains bullish. The bear phase between Oct 20 and 28 appears to have been a correction and note that the recovery since Oct 28 signals the end of that corrective cycle. Key support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $4051.3. Clearance of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Sights are on key resistance and the bull trigger at $4381.5, the Oct 20 high.                       

SILVER TECHS: Northbound    

• RES 4: $66.312 - 2.000 proj of the Oct 28 - Nov 13 - 21 price swing
• RES 3: $65.000 - Round number resistance 
• RES 2: $64.227 - 1.764 proj of the Oct 28 - Nov 13 - 21 price swing
• RES 1: $62.937 - 1.618 proj of the Oct 28 - Nov 13 - 21 price swing   
• PRICE: $62.034 @ 08:13 GMT Dec 11
• SUP 1: $55.644 - 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: $51.634/48.644 - 50-day EMA / Low Nov 21 
• SUP 3: $45.557 - Low Oct 28
• SUP 4: $41.135 - Low Sep 17 

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish and this week’s push to fresh cycle highs reinforce current conditions. The metal has traded through the psychological $60.00 handle and this paves the way for an extension towards $62.937 next, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position reinforcing current bullish conditions. Initial key support lies at $55.644, the 20-day EMA.