MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bund Dip Deemed Corrective

Price Signal Summary – Bund Dip Deemed Corrective

• The S&P E-Minis contract maintains a bullish tone and price is trading at its latest highs. Recent gains confirm a resumption of the uptrend and signal scope for a continuation near-term. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up. Eurostoxx 50 futures traded higher last week and the contract is holding on to its latest gains. The move higher undermines a recent bearish theme. Price has traded through the 50-day EMA, at 4873.27.        
• GBPUSD traded to a fresh short-term trend high on Friday before fading off highs. Recent gains are considered corrective and this has allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. The pair has breached the 20-day EMA. A bear cycle remains USDJPY intact. The pair traded to a fresh short-term trend low on Dec 3, highlighting a resumption of the retracement of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 rally. Price has recently traded through the 20- and 50-day EMAs - a bearish development. The trend condition in USDCAD remains bullish and Friday’s strong rally reinforces this theme. The bull trigger is 1.4178, the Nov 26 high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend and mark an extension of the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
• Gold is unchanged and continues to trade inside a tight range, for now. The long-term trend condition remains bullish and the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg appears to have been a correction. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position. A bearish threat in WTI futures remains present and recent weakness reinforces this theme. A continuation down would open $65.74, the Oct 1 low, and $63.90, the Sep 10 low and key support.
• A bull cycle in Bund futures remains in play and the latest move lower is considered corrective. A move down is allowing an overbought trend condition to unwind. For bulls, price has recently traded through 136.37, the 76.4% retracement of the Oct 1 - Nov 6 bear leg. A bullish corrective cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and recent gains reinforce the current short-term condition. Sights are on 96.67 next, a Fibonacci projection point. On the downside, a stronger reversal lower would refocus attention on the initial key support at 93.40. 

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Resistance At The 20-Day EMA Remains Intact    

• RES 4: 1.0937 High Nov 5 / 6 and a key resistance  
• RES 3: 1.0825 High Nov 7 
• RES 2: 1.0710 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.0630 High Dec 06
• PRICE: 1.0542 @ 06:08 GMT Dec 9
• SUP 1: 1.0461/0335 Low Dec 2 / Low Nov 22 and the bear trigger   
• SUP 2: 1.0311 1.382 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.0258 1.500 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing  
• SUP 4: 1.0201 61.8% retracement of the Sep 28 - Juk 18 bull leg     

EURUSD has pulled back Friday’s 1.0630 high. This highlights the fact that resistance at 1.0581, the 20-day EMA, remains intact. A close above this average would highlight a clear breach of it and signal scope for a stronger corrective recovery, towards 1.0710, the 50-day EMA. An extension higher would also allow for an unwinding of the recent oversold condition. The medium-term trend direction is down. The bear trigger is 1.0335, Nov 22 low.  

GBPUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Remains In Play 

• RES 4: 1.3048 High Nov 6 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2961 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 bear leg  
• RES 2: 1.2836 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 1.2811 High Dec 6 
• PRICE: 1.2727 @ 06:33 GMT Dec 9 
• SUP 1: 1.2617/2487 Low Dec 2 / Low Nov 22 and the bear trigger   
• SUP 2: 1.2446 Low May 9
• SUP 3. 1.2367 76.4% retracement of the Oct 4 ‘23 - Sep 26 uptrend 
• SUP 4: 1.2300 Low Apr 22 and a key support     

GBPUSD traded to a fresh short-term trend high on Friday before fading off highs. Recent gains are considered corrective and this has allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. The pair has breached the 20-day EMA, signalling scope for a stronger. The next resistance to watch is 1.2836, the 50-day EMA, at 1.2840. The medium-term trend direction is down, the bear trigger is 1.2487, the Nov 22 low.   

EURGBP TECHS: Trading Above Support          

• RES 4: 0.8464 High Sep 11 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8448 High Oct 31 and reversal trigger 
• RES 2: 0.8404 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Nov 11 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.8343/76 50-day EMA / High Nov 19 and a bull trigger 
• PRICE: 0.8283 @ 06:43 GMT Dec 7  
• SUP 1: 0.8260 Low Nov 11 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 ‘22
• SUP 3: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support
• SUP 4: 0.8200 Round number support  

EURGBP is unchanged and key short-term support remains intact. Attention is on the bullish engulfing candle pattern on Nov 12, that highlights a possible reversal.  0.8260, the Nov 11 low, marks the key short-term support. A break of it would cancel the candle pattern and confirm a resumption of the downtrend. This would open 0.8203, the Mar 7 ‘22 low and major support. Key short-term resistance and a bull trigger is 0.8376, the Nov 19 high.       

USDJPY TECHS: Short-Term Trend Needle Points South        

• RES 4: 156.88 2.236 proj of the Sep 16 - 27 - 30 price swing 
• RES 3: 155.89/156.75 High Nov 20 / 15 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 154.49 High Nov 26 
• RES 1: 151.20/151.75 50- and 20-day EMA values
• PRICE: 150.14 @ 06:58 GMT Dec 09 
• SUP 1: 148.65 Low Dec 03
• SUP 2: 148.17 50.0% retracement of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 bull leg 
• SUP 3: 147.35 Low Oct 8
• SUP 4: 147.33 3.0% 10-dma envelope 

A bear cycle remains USDJPY intact. The pair traded to a fresh short-term  trend low on Dec 3, highlighting a resumption of the retracement of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 rally. Price has recently traded through the 20- and 50-day EMAs - a bearish development. Sights are on 148.17, a Fibonacci retracement. A reversal higher would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 156.75, Nov 15 high. Initial firm resistance is 151.75, the 20-day EMA.    

EURJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points South             

• RES 4: 164.76 High Nov 20 and a key short-term resistance  
• RES 3: 162.49 High Nov 22  
• RES 2: 161.89 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 159.58/160.57 High Dec 6 / 20-day EMA  
• PRICE: 158.44 @ 07:19 GMT Dec 9
• SUP 1: 156.18 Low Dec 03
• SUP 2: 156.05 Low Sep 17
• SUP 3: 155.15 Low Sep 16 and a key support 
• SUP 4: 153.87 Low Dec 8 / 14 2023 

A bear cycle in EURJPY remains in play and the latest recovery appears corrective. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a downtrend. 157.87, the 76.4% retracement of the Sep 16 - Oct 31 bull cycle, has been breached. The clear break of this level strengthens a bearish theme and opens 155.15, the Sep 16 low. Initial firm resistance is 160.57, the 20-day EMA.      

AUDUSD TECHS: Key Support Remains Exposed            

• RES 4: 0.6762 High Oct 9   
• RES 3: 0.6733 High Oct 13             
• RES 2: 0.6579/88 50-day EMA / High Nov 7 and a reversal trigger  
• RES 1: 0.6497/50 20-day EMA / High Nov 25
• PRICE: 0.6422 @ 07:58 GMT Dec 09
• SUP 1: 0.6373 Low Dec 06
• SUP 3: 0.6350 Low Aug 5 and a key support 
• SUP 3: 0.6339 Low Nov 10 2023 
• SUP 4: 0.6259 1.000 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing 

The trend condition in AUDUSD remains bearish and last week’s fresh cycle lows reinforces current conditions. The move down has once again confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for an extension towards 0.6350, the Aug 5 low and the next key support. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6497, the 20-day EMA. 

USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Trend Structure             

• RES 4: 1.4327 2.0% 10-dma envelope  
• RES 3: 1.4246 2.00 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
• RES 2: 1.4196 1.764 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
• RES 1: 1.4178 High Nov 26 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.4159 @ 08:04 GMT Dec 9
• SUP 1: 1.4012/3928 20-day EMA / Low Nov 25 and a key support  
• SUP 2: 1.3902 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3822 Low Nov 6
• SUP 4: 1.3747 Low Oct 17

The trend condition in USDCAD remains bullish and Friday’s strong rally reinforces this theme. The bull trigger is 1.4178, the Nov 26 high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend and mark an extension of the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 1.4196 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support has been defined at 1.3928, the Nov 25 low.   

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H5) Pullback Appears Corrective             

• RES 4: 138.00 Round number resistance           
• RES 3: 137.72 High Oct 1 and a key resistance 
• RES 2: 137.28 High Oct 2
• RES 1: 137.18 High Dec 2              
• PRICE: 136.41 @ 05:44 GMT Dec 9
• SUP 1: 135.93/135.35 Low Nov 29 / 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2  134.95 Low Nov 26              
• SUP 3: 134.55 Low Nov 25
• SUP 4: 133.17 Low Nov 20  

A bull cycle in Bund futures remains in play and the latest move lower is considered corrective. A move down is allowing an overbought trend condition to unwind. For bulls, price has recently traded through 136.37, the 76.4% retracement of the Oct 1 - Nov 6 bear leg. A clear break of this level strengthens a bullish theme and opens 137.72, the Oct 1 high. Initial firm support lies at 135.35, the 20-day EMA.                   

BOBL TECHS: (H5) Monitoring Support At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 119.925 2.500 proj of the Nov 6 - 12 - 18 price swing        
• RES 3: 119.813 2.382 proj of the Nov 6 - 12 - 18 price swing   
• RES 2: 119.674 2.236 proj of the Nov 6 - 12 - 18 price swing 
• RES 1: 119.280/119.480 High Dec 4 and 5 / High Dec 3                        
• PRICE: 118.970@ 06:01 GMT Dec 9  
• SUP 1: 118.640 Low Dec 6             
• SUP 2: 118.596 20-day EMA    
• SUP 3: 118.280 Low Nov 25    
• SUP 4: 118.000 Round number support  

Bobl futures maintain a firmer tone and the latest pullback is considered corrective - for now. A move down is allowing a short-term overbought condition to unwind. For bulls, scope is seen for a move towards 119.674 next, a Fibonacci projection. The bull trigger is 119.480, the Feb 2 high. Initial firm support lies at 118.596, the 20-day EMA. First support lies at 118.760, the Dec 5 low.     

SCHATZ TECHS: (H5) Corrective Pullback         

• RES 4: 107.592 1.236 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - 26 price swing  
• RES 3: 107.505 1.000 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - 26 price swing
• RES 2: 107.480 High Dec 2 / 3 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 107.385 High Dec 4      
• PRICE: 107.230 @ 06:24 GMT Dec 9   
• SUP 1: 107.11 Low Dec 6           
• SUP 2: 107.045 Low Nov 22  
• SUP 3: 106.960 Low Nov 20
• SUP 4: 106.920 Low Nov 18

Recent gains in Schatz futures highlighted a continuation of the uptrend that started late October. A bullish theme remains intact and the latest move down is for now, considered corrective. The short-term bull trigger has been defined at 107.480, the Dec 2 and 3 high. A break of this level would open 107.505 and 107.592, Fibonacci projection points. Initial support lies at 107.110, Friday’s low. A break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement.                                

GILT TECHS: (H5) Bull Cycle Still In Play    

• RES 4: 97.00 Round number resistance    
• RES 3: 96.83 2.618 proj of the Nov 18 - 19 - 20 price swing    
• RES 2: 96.67 2.500 proj of the Nov 18 - 19 - 20 price swing  
• RES 1: 96.18/54 High Dec 5 / 3               
• PRICE: 95.66 @ Close Dec 6
• SUP 1: 95.49/17 Low Dec 4 / Low Nov 28                     
• SUP 2: 94.66 Low Nov 25 
• SUP 3: 93.96 Low Nov 22
• SUP 4: 93.40 Low Nov 18 and a key short-term support

A bullish corrective cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and recent gains reinforce the current short-term condition. Sights are on 96.67 next,  a Fibonacci projection point. On the downside, a stronger reversal lower would refocus attention on the initial key support at 93.40, the Nov 18 low. A breach of this support would be a bearish development and highlight a reversal. First support lies at 95.49, the Dec 4 low, followed by 95.17, the Nov 28 low.                

BTP TECHS: (H5) Overbought However The Uptrend Remains Intact                      

• RES 4: 124.00 Round number resistance    
• RES 3: 123.83 1.764 proj of the Nov 7 - 15 - 18 price swing
• RES 2: 123.43 1.618 proj of the Nov 7 - 15 - 18 price swing 
• RES 1: 123.26 High Dec 6  
• PRICE: 122.90 @ Close Dec 5 
• SUP 1: 121.75 Low Nov 29      
• SUP 2: 121.28 20-day EMA    
• SUP 3: 120.05 Low Nov 25  
• SUP 4: 119.11 Low Nov 18  

BTP futures traded higher last week, marking an extension of the bull cycle that started Nov 7. The latest rally has resulted in a move through key resistance at 121.97, the Oct 1 high. The clear break of this level highlights an important bullish development and opens 123.43 next, a Fibonacci projection. The trend is overbought and a corrective pullback would allow this condition to unwind. Support to watch is 121.28, the 20-day EMA.           

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z4) Holding On To Last Week’s Gains          

• RES 4: 5015.00 High Oct 21 
• RES 3: 5106.00 High Sep 30 and a bull trigger       
• RES 2: 5015.00 High Oct 29 
• RES 1: 4994.00 High Dec 6         
• PRICE: 4979.00 @ 06:37 GMT Dec 9  
• SUP 1: 4857.88/4699.00 20-day EMA / Low Nov 19 and bear trigger      
• SUP 2: 4707.00 Low Aug 9   
• SUP 3: 4662.12 .76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 4586.00 Low Aug 6   

Eurostoxx 50 futures traded higher last week and the contract is holding on to its latest gains. The move higher undermines a recent bearish theme. Price has traded through the 50-day EMA, at 4873.27. The clear breach of this average strengthens a bullish theme and note that 4961.00, the Nov 6 high, has also been pierced. This opens 5015.00, the Oct 29 high. Key support is 4699.00, the Nov 19 low. Initial support lies at 4844.40, the 20-day EMA.    

E-MINI S&P: (Z4) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat 

• RES 4: 6200.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 6184.00 1.000 proj of the Nov 4 - 11 - 19 price swing   
• RES 2: 6145.26 1.236 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing   
• RES 1: 6111.00 High Dec 6      
• PRICE: 6097.00 @ 07:23 GMT Dec 9
• SUP 1: 6009.42 20-day EMA      
• SUP 2: 5913.54 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 5855.00 Low Nov 19  
• SUP 4: 5814.75 Low Nov 6

The S&P E-Minis contract maintains a bullish tone and price is trading at its latest highs. Recent gains confirm a resumption of the uptrend and signal scope for a continuation near-term. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Sights are on 6145.26, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch lies at 6009.42, the 20-day EMA.        

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (G5) Bearish MA Condition             

• RES 4: $84.32 - High Jul 5 and a key resistance 
• RES 3: $81.83 - High Jul 18 
• RES 2: $79.98/80.44 - High Oct 7 / 76.4% of Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg
• RES 1: $74.28/75.79 - High Dec 4 / High Nov 5       
• PRICE: $71.40 @ 07:13 GMT Dec 9 
• SUP 1: $69.95 - Low Oct 29   
• SUP 2: $69.52/67.89 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $66.70 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
• SUP 4: $64.34 - 2.000 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing

Brent futures traded lower last week. The outlook remains bearish and moving average studies highlight a dominant downtrend. A continuation down would open $69.52 the Oct 1 low, and $67.89, the Sep 10 low and a key support. For bulls, a clearer reversal higher would instead refocus attention on key resistance at $79.98, the Oct 7 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is unchanged at $75.79, the Nov 5 high.           

WTI TECHS: (F5) Bear Threat           

• RES 4: $80.25 - High Jul 5  
• RES 3: $78.03 - High Jul 18
• RES 2: $74.83/77.04 - High Oct 10 / 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $70.51/72.41 - High Dec 4 / High Nov 7   
• PRICE: $67.54 @ 07:18 GMT Dec 9
• SUP 1: $66.32 - Low Oct 29     
• SUP 2: $65.74/63.90 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $62.73 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
• SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number

A bearish threat in WTI futures remains present and recent weakness reinforces this theme. A continuation down would open $65.74, the Oct 1 low, and $63.90, the Sep 10 low and key support. For bulls, a stronger reversal to the upside would instead refocus attention on the key short-term resistance at $77.04, the Oct 8 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is unchanged at $72.41, the Nov 7 high.            

GOLD TECHS: Trend Condition Remains Bullish     

• RES 4: $2790.1 - High Oct 31 and the bull trigger  
• RES 3: $2750.0 - High Nov 5
• RES 2: $2730.4 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg     
• RES 1: $2721.4 - High Nov 25     
• PRICE: $2646.3 @ 07:25 GMT Dec 9 
• SUP 1: $2605.3/2564.4 - Low Nov 26 / 18 
• SUP 2: $2536.9 - Low Nov 14 and a key support
• SUP 3: $2511.1 - Low Sep 12
• SUP 4: $2472.0 - Low Sep 4   

Gold is unchanged and continues to trade inside a tight range, for now. The long-term trend condition remains bullish and the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg appears to have been a correction. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Resistance to watch is $2721.4, the Nov 25 high. Clearance of this level would highlight a bullish short-term development. Key support to monitor is $2536.9, the Nov 14 low.              

SILVER TECHS: Monitoring Resistance At The 50-Day EMA             

• RES 4: $35.226 - 61.8% of the 2011 - 2020 major bear leg  
• RES 3: $35.167 - 2.00 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing 
• RES 2: $33.125/34.903 - High Nov 1 / High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $31.161/537 - 50-day EMA / High Nov 19                           
• PRICE: 31.281 @ 08:07 GMT Dec 9  
• SUP 1: $29.642 - Low Nov 28       
• SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle 
• SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 
• SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8  

Silver traded higher last week. However, the bear cycle that started Oct 23 remains in play and the metal continues to trade closer to its latest lows. Price has recently traded through a trendline drawn from the Aug 8 low. A resumption of the bear leg would open $28.446, a Fibonacci retracement. The 50-day EMA, at  $31.154, has been pierced. A clear of the average would highlight a possible reversal.