MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bull Mode in Bunds

Price Signal Summary – Bull Mode in Bunds

• A sharp sell-off on Feb 12 in S&P E-Minis reinstates a potential bearish threat leaving key resistance at 7043.00, the Jan 28 high and bull trigger, intact for now. The medium-term trend condition in EUROSTOXX 50 futures is unchanged, it remains bullish and last week’s fresh cycle highs reinforce the bull theme.
• A bullish theme in GBPUSD remains intact - for now. The recovery from the Feb 6 low highlights a short-term reversal and signals the end of the corrective phase between Jan 27 - Feb 6. Despite recent gains, a bearish condition in USDCAD remains intact and sights are on key support at 1.3482, the Jan 30 low. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the medium-term downtrend. Last week’s move down in EURJPY resulted in a print below bull channel support, currently at 181.11 and drawn from the Feb 28 ‘25 low. The trendline represents an important medium-term support.
• A bull cycle in WTI futures remains intact. However, the move lower from the Jan 29 high continues to highlight a corrective phase. Attention is on support at the 20-day EMA, at $62.61 (pierced). Gold is trading closer to its most recent highs. Recent gains highlight a retracement of the Jan 29 - Feb 2 sell-off. The next two resistance points to monitor are $5139.9 and $5314.0.                               
• A bull mode in Bund futures remains intact and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its latest gains. Last week’s rally resulted in a breach of 128.89, the 76.4% retracement of the Nov 26 - Dec 22 bear leg. Gilt futures traded sharply higher last week, resulting in a break of the 50-day EMA, at 91.21. The clear break of the average highlights a stronger reversal and signals scope for an extension towards 91.73. 

[GLOBAL] MNI Tech Trend Monitor - Highlighting Longer-Term Trends:

• Refreshing the MNI Tech Trend Monitor, Adding USDZAR, USDCNH and the e-mini S&P chart, while refreshing levels for Gold, USD/JPY, EUR/GBP, EUR/HUF, USD/MXN, the European Banking Stock Index (SX7E) as well as UK Gilts.

See full document here: https://media.marketnews.com/MNI_Tech_Trend_Monitor_Jan26_cef40b4ef1.pdf

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Structure Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 1.2081 High Jan 27 and key resistance   
• RES 3: 1.2007 76.4% retracement of the Jan 27 - Feb 6 bear leg 
• RES 2: 1.1961 61.8% retracement of the Jan 27 - Feb 6 bear leg 
• RES 1: 1.1929 High Feb 10
• PRICE: 1.1865 @ 06:10 GMT Feb 16
• SUP 1: 1.1830 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 1.1766 Low Feb 06 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 1.1693 76.4% retracement of the Jan 19 -0 27 bull leg 
• SUP 4: 1.1670 Low Jan 22  

EURUSD is unchanged and a bullish theme remains intact. A rally on Feb 9 highlights a stronger reversal that suggests a recent bearish correction has concluded. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant M/T uptrend. A resumption of gains would open 1.1961 and 1.2007, Fibonacci retracement points. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 1.2081, the Jan 27 high. Key short-term support lies at 1.1766, the Feb 6 low.  

GBPUSD TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 1.3889 1.00 proj of the Nov 4 - Jan 6 - Jan 19 price swing     
• RES 3: 1.3868 High Jan 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.3733/3814 High Feb 4 / high Jan 30  
• RES 1: 1.3712 High Feb 11
• PRICE: 1.3642 @ 06:20 GMT Feb 16
• SUP 1: 1.3587 Low Feb 9
• SUP 2: 1.3527/09 50-day EMA / Low Feb 6
• SUP 3: 1.3458 76.4% retracement of the Jan 19 - 27 upleg 
• SUP 4: 1.3402 Low Jan 22  

A bullish theme in GBPUSD remains intact - for now. The recovery from the Feb 6 low highlights a short-term reversal and signals the end of the corrective phase between Jan 27 - Feb 6. Note that MA studies continue to highlight a dominant uptrend. The next resistance to watch is 1.3733, the Feb 4 high. Clearance of this level would expose 1.3868, the Jan 27 high and a bull trigger. Key S/T support lies at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3527. 

EURGBP TECHS: Key S/T Resistance Remains Exposed  

• RES 4: 0.8797 High Dec 17   
• RES 3: 0.8769 61.8% retracement of the Nov 14 - Feb 4 bear leg 
• RES 2: 0.8746 High Jan 21 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 0.8730 100-dma
• PRICE: 0.8699 @ 06:36 GMT Feb 16
• SUP 1: 0.8688/8613 20-day EMA / Low Feb 04 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8597 Low Aug 14
• SUP 3: 0.8578 Low Jul 2 ‘25 
• SUP 4: 0.8544 50.0% retracement of the Dec ‘24 - Nov ‘25 bull cycle

EURGBP is in consolidation mode and is trading closer to its recent highs. The latest recovery still appears corrective, however, a key short-term resistance at 0.8746, the Jan 21 high, remains exposed. A clear break of this level would highlight a potential trend reversal. MA studies are in a bear-mode position and highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 0.8613, the Feb 4 low and bear trigger.       

USDJPY TECHS: Monitoring Support

• RES 4: 159.45 High Jan 14 and the bull trigger 
• RES 3: 157.76 High Feb 9
• RES 2: 155.51 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 155.18 20-day EMA  
• PRICE: 153.15 @ 06:58 GMT Feb 16  
• SUP 1: 152.10 Low Jan 27 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 151.83 Trendline support drawn from the Apr 22 ‘25 low
• SUP 3: 151.54 Low Oct 29 ‘25
• SUP 4: 149.67 50.0% of the Apr 22 ‘25 - Jan 14 bull cycle

USDJPY continues to trade closer to its recent lows. A bearish tone remains intact and attention is on key short-term support at 152.10, the Jan 27 low and bear trigger. Clearance of this level would highlight a stronger reversal and resume the bear cycle that started Jan 14. Note that a trendline support, drawn from the Apr 22 ‘25 low, lies at 151.83 and also marks a key support. Initial resistance to watch is at 155.18, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Bull Channel Support Holds For Now

• RES 4: 187.71 3.000 proj of the Oct 17 - Oct 30 - Nov 5 price swing
• RES 3: 186.87 High Jan 23 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 183.55/186.36 20-day EMA / High Feb 9
• RES 1: 182.98 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 181.77 @ 07:05 GMT Feb 16
• SUP 1: 181.11 Base of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 ‘25 low
• SUP 2: 180.10 Low Dec 5 ‘25 
• SUP 3: 179.30 23.6% of the Feb 28 ‘25 - Jan 23 bull cycle  
• SUP 4: 178.82 High Oct 30 ‘25  

Last week’s move down in EURJPY resulted in a print below bull channel support, currently at 181.11 and drawn from the Feb 28 ‘25 low. The trendline represents an important medium-term support and a clear break of it would highlight a stronger reversal. It remains intact for now. A recovery and a breach of 183.55, the 20-day EMA, would signal a potential S/T reversal. This would also highlight the start of a fresh bull cycle inside the bull channel.          

AUDUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 0.7208 61.8% of the Feb 25 ‘21 - Apr 9 ‘25 bear leg   
• RES 3: 0.7186 2.236 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 10 - 18 price swing
• RES 2: 0.7158 High Feb 2 2023
• RES 1: 0.7147 High Feb 12
• PRICE: 0.7088 @ 07:59 GMT Feb 16
• SUP 1: 0.6971 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 0.6897 Low Feb 6 and key short-term support 
• SUP 3: 0.6834 Low Jan 23 
• SUP 4: 0.6831 50-day EMA

The trend theme in AUDUSD remains bullish. Fresh cycle highs last week reinforce current conditions and the move higher confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position and this set-up continues to highlight a dominant medium-term uptrend. Potential is seen for a move towards 0.7186 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial key support lies at 0.6897, the Feb 6 low.  

USDCAD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South  

• RES 4: 1.3929 High Jan 16 and a reversal trigger     
• RES 3: 1.3879 High Jan 20
• RES 2: 1.3742 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 1.3659/3725 20-day EMA / High Feb 2 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 1.3607 @ 08:03 GMT Feb 16
• SUP 1: 1.3482 Low Jan 30 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 ‘24
• SUP 3: 1.3400 50.0% retracement of the 2021 - 2025 uptrend 
• SUP 4: 1.3359 Low Jan 31 2024     

Despite recent gains, a bearish condition in USDCAD remains intact and sights are on key support at 1.3482, the Jan 30 low. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the medium-term downtrend and pave the way for an extension towards the 1.3400 handle, a Fibonacci retracement.  Key short-term resistance is unchanged at 1.3725, the Feb 2 high. A move through this hurdle would suggest scope for a stronger S/T bull cycle instead.  

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H6) Bull Cycle Intact                      

• RES 4: 130.00 Round number resistance   
• RES 3: 129.89 2.618 proj of the Jan 23 - 29 - Feb 3 price swing 
• RES 2: 129.55 High Nov 26 ‘25 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 129.34 High Feb 13             
• PRICE: 129.07 @ 05:45 GMT Feb 16 
• SUP 1: 128.58 High Jan 19 and a recent breakout point             
• SUP 2: 128.23 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 128.03 Low Feb 9
• SUP 4: 127.51 Low Jan 23 and a key support 

A bull mode in Bund futures remains intact and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its latest gains. Last week’s rally resulted in a breach of 128.89, the 76.4% retracement of the Nov 26 - Dec 22 bear leg. The break signals scope for an extension towards 129.55, the Nov 26 ‘25 high and the next key resistance point. Initial firm support top watch lies at 128.26, the 50-day EMA. A break would signal a possible top.

BOBL TECHS: (H6) Trend Needle Points North       

• RES 4: 117.390 2.000 proj of the Jan 23 - Feb 2 - 3 price swing      
• RES 3: 117.260 1.764 proj of the Jan 23 - Feb 2 - 3 price swing 
• RES 2: 117.140 High Nov 26 ‘25 and a key resistance 
• RES 1: 117.100 HIgh Feb 13  
• PRICE: 116.990 @ 05:30 GMT Feb 16
• SUP 1: 116.690 High Feb 2 
• SUP 2: 116.548 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 116.290 Low Feb 3  
• SUP 4: 116.140 Low Jan 23 and key support  

A bull cycle in Bobl futures remains intact and last week’s fresh short-term cycle highs, reinforce current conditions. The contract has cleared 116.805, the 76.4% retracement of the Nov 26 - Dec 10 bear leg. The clear break of this level paves the way for a climb towards 117.140, the Nov 26 ‘25 high. Initial firm support to watch lies at 116.548 the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this average would signal a possible reversal.  

SCHATZ TECHS: (H6) Bullish Trend Sequence             

• RES 4: 107.077 1.500 proj of the Jan 23 - 29 - Feb 3 price swing   
• RES 3: 107.060 High Nov 21 ‘25 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 107.030 High Nov 26  
• RES 1: 107.010 High Feb 13
• PRICE: 106.975 @ 05:10 GMT Feb 16
• SUP 1: 106.890/815 20-day EMA / Low Feb 3 and a key S/T support  
• SUP 2: 106.760 Low Jan 23 
• SUP 3: 106.725 Low Jan 5
• SUP 4: 106.690 Low Dec 18 & 22

A bull cycle in Schatz futures remains intact and last week’s gains reinforce the bull theme. The contract has traded through 106.959, the 76.4% retracement of the Nov 21 - Dec 10 bear leg. The clear break of this price point signals scope for an extension towards 107.060, the Nov 21 ‘25 high. Initial firm support to watch is 106.890, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of the average would highlight a possible reversal.                   

GILT TECHS: (H6) Trades Through The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 92.51 High Jan 19  
• RES 3: 92.20 76.4% retracement of the Jan 14 - Feb 9 bear cycle    
• RES 2: 92.00/13 Round number resistance / High Jan 22 
• RES 1: 91.88 High Feb 13      
• PRICE: 91.85 @ Close Feb 13
• SUP 1: 91.17 20-day EMA     
• SUP 2: 90.62 Low Feb 11  
• SUP 3: 89.76 Low Feb 9 and the bear trigger   
• SUP 4: 89.73 1.382 proj of the Jan 14 - 20 - 22 price swing      

Gilt futures traded sharply higher last week, resulting in a break of the 50-day EMA, at 91.21. The clear break of the average highlights a stronger reversal and signals scope for an extension towards 91.73, a Fibonacci retracement point. It is still possible that the latest recovery is a correction. Initial firm support to watch lies at 90.62, the Feb 11 low. Clearance of this level would expose key support at 89.76, the Feb 9 low.                  

BTP TECHS: (H6) Northbound        

• RES 4: 123.08 3.000 proj of the Dec 10 - 17 - 22 price swing
• RES 3: 122.79 2.764 proj of the Dec 10 - 17 - 22 price swing
• RES 2: 122.56 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 122.33 2.382 proj of the Dec 10 - 17 - 22 price swing
• PRICE: 122.12 @ Close Feb 13
• SUP 1: 121.2220-day EMA           
• SUP 2: 120.68 Trendline drawn from the Dec 10 low 
• SUP 3: 120.36 Low Jan 20
• SUP 4: 119.72 Low Jan 6

A bullish theme in BTP futures remains intact and last week’s break higher reinforces current trend conditions and confirms a resumption of the medium-term uptrend. The contract has cleared resistance at 121.37, the Nov 13 ‘25 high. Sights are on 122.33 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, short-term trendline support is at 120.72 - drawn from the Dec 10 low.                         

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H6) Support Remains Intact        

• RES 4: 6200.00 Round number resistance     
• RES 3: 6172.00 1.500 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 12 - 18 price swing
• RES 2: 6134.00 1.382 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 12 - 18 price swing
• RES 1: 6108.00 High Feb 12      
• PRICE: 6001.00 @ 06:27 GMT Feb 16
• SUP 1: 5968.00 Low Feb 13  
• SUP 2: 5905.21/5865.00 50-day EMA / Low Feb 06
• SUP 3: 5838.00 Low Jan 20 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 5750.00 Low Dec 23   

The medium-term trend condition in EUROSTOXX 50 futures is unchanged, it remains bullish and last  week’s fresh cycle highs reinforce the bull theme. The contract has pierced the 6100.00 handle. A clear breach of this hurdle would open 6134.00, a Fibonacci projection point. Key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at 5905.21. Clearance of this average would highlight a short-term top. For now, a move down is considered corrective.              

E-MINI S&P: (H6) Key Support Remains Exposed   

• RES 4: 7080.92 0.764 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 11 - 18 price swing    
• RES 3: 7055.73 2.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• RES 2: 7043.00 High Jan 28 and bull trigger  
• RES 1: 6919.38/7011.50 50-day EMA / High Feb 11 
• PRICE: 6868.75 @ 07:17 GMT Feb 16
• SUP 1: 6751.50 Low Feb 6 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: 6733.00 Low Nov 25 ‘25 
• SUP 3: 6691.56 76.4% retracement of the Nov 21 - Jan 28 bull leg
• SUP 4: 6583.00 Low Nov 21 ‘25 and a key medium-term support   

A sharp sell-off on Feb 12 in S&P E-Minis reinstates a potential bearish threat leaving key resistance at 7043.00, the Jan 28 high and bull trigger, intact for now. Attention turns to the key support at 6751.50, the Feb 6 low, where a break would highlight a top and a stronger short-term reversal. This would open 6691.56, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial resistance to watch is at 6919.38, the 50-day EMA.    

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (J6) Approaching A Key Support Zone           

• RES 4: $75.93 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 5 - 14 - 19 price swing  
• RES 3: $73.33 - High Jun 23 ‘25 and a key M/T resistance
• RES 2: $72.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $70.72 - High Feb 11  
• PRICE: $67.79 @ 07:05 GMT Feb 16
• SUP 1: $66.97 - 20-day EMA   
• SUP 2: $64.99 - 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: $62.59 - Low Jan 19 
• SUP 4: $59.44 - Low Jan 5 

A bull theme in Brent futures is intact. Resistance at $70.58, the Jan 29 high and a bull trigger, was pierced last week. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open the $72.00 handle. The pullback from last week’s high appears corrective - for now. Support to watch lies at $66.97, the 20-day EMA, and $64.99, the 50-day EMA. The area between these two averages marks a key support zone.             

WTI TECHS: (H6) Trading Above Support For Now       

• RES 4: $71.66 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 7 - 14 - 20 price swing 
• RES 3: $69.80 - High Jun 23 ‘25 and a key medium-term resistance 
• RES 2: $68.00 - Round number resistance 
• RES 1: $66.48 - High Jan 30 and the bull trigger     
• PRICE: $62.80 @ 07:13 GMT Feb 16
• SUP 1: $62.61/60.95 - 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: $58.53 - Low Jan 20 
• SUP 3: $55.65 - Low Jan 7
• SUP 4: $54.56 - Low Apr 9 ‘25 and a key support 

A bull cycle in WTI futures remains intact. However, the move lower from the Jan 29 high continues to highlight a corrective phase. Attention is on support at the 20-day EMA, at $62.61 (pierced). The 50-day EMA lies at $60.95. A clear breach of the 50-day average would highlight a stronger reversal and open $58.53, the Jan 20 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at $66.48, the Jan 30 high. Clearance of it would resume the uptrend.        

GOLD TECHS: Still In Retracement Mode         

• RES 4: $5451.0 - High Jan 30
• RES 3: $5314.0 - 76.4% retracement of the Jan 29 - Feb 2 pullback
• RES 2: $5139.9 - 61.8% retracement of the Jan 29 - Feb 2 pullback 
• RES 1: $5119.3 - High Feb 11                       
• PRICE: $4996.6 @ 07:20 GMT Feb 16 
• SUP 1: $4655.7 - Low Feb 6 
• SUP 2: $4403.0 - Low Feb 2 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 3: $4274.7 - Low Dec 31 ‘25 and a key support 
• SUP 4: $4170.3 - Low Dec 9

Gold is trading closer to its most recent highs. Recent gains highlight a retracement of the Jan 29 - Feb 2 sell-off. The next two resistance points to monitor are $5139.9 and $5314.0, Fibonacci retracement levels. Note that the sell from the Jan 29 high still highlights a potential top in the L/T trend and from a S/T perspective, an unwinding of the recent overbought condition. A resumption of bearish activity would refocus attention on $4403.0, Feb 2 low.                           

SILVER TECHS: Short-Term Outlook Remains Bearish 

• RES 4: $121.654 - High Jan 30 and key resistance 
• RES 3: $106.895 - Low Jan 29
• RES 2: $100.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $85.029 - 20-day EMA     
• PRICE: $76.925 @ 08:08 GMT Feb 16
• SUP 1: $64.098 - Low Feb 6
• SUP 2: $61.136 - 0.618 proj of the Jan 29 - Feb 2 - 4 price swing     
• SUP 3: $53.797 - 0.618 proj of the Jan 29 - Feb 2 - 4 price swing
• SUP 4: $50.00 - Former key resistance area and major support 

The sharp sell-off in Silver Feb 5 confirmed a resumption of the bear leg that started Jan 29. Note that the move lower since Jan 29 also highlights an unwinding of the recent extreme overbought condition. The metal has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs, signalling scope for a deeper retracement, and sights are on $61.136 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is at 85.029, the 20-day EMA.