MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bearish Threat Remains for WTI

Price Signal Summary – Bearish Threat Remains for WTI

• The S&P E-Minis contract maintains a bullish tone and price traded higher yesterday. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and signals scope for a continuation near-term. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up. Eurostoxx 50 futures have traded higher this week and the contract is holding on to its latest gains. The move higher undermines a recent bearish theme. Price has traded through the 50-day EMA, at 4868.67. The clear breach of this average strengthens a bullish theme.
• EURUSD traded higher Thursday and is testing initial firm resistance at 1.0583, the 20-day EMA. Clearance of this average would signal scope for a stronger corrective recovery and highlight potential for a climb towards 1.0716, the 50-day EMA. A bear cycle in USDJPY remains intact. The pair traded to a fresh short-term  trend low on Tuesday, confirming a resumption of the retracement of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 rally. Price has recently traded through the 20- and 50-day EMAs - a bearish development. The trend condition in USDCAD remains bullish and the Nov 25 cycle high reinforces this theme. The break higher confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend and marked an extension of the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.                 
• Gold continues to trade inside a range, for now. The long-term trend condition remains bullish and the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg appears to have been a correction. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A bearish threat in WTI futures remains present and the Nov 25 move lower reinforces this theme. A resumption of bearish price action would open $65.74, the Oct 1 low, and $63.90, the Sep 10 low and key support.
• Despite the latest pullback, a bull cycle in Bund futures remains in play and the move lower is considered corrective. A move lower is allowing an overbought trend condition to unwind. Price has recently traded through 136.37, the 76.4% retracement of the Oct 1 - Nov 6 bear leg. A bullish corrective cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and recent gains reinforce the current short-term condition. Sights are on 96.67 next, a Fibonacci projection point. On the downside, a stronger reversal lower would refocus attention on the initial key support at 93.40. 

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS:Testing Resistance At The 20-Day EMA    

• RES 4: 1.0937 High Nov 5 / 6 and a key resistance  
• RES 3: 1.0825 High Nov 7 
• RES 2: 1.0716 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.0583/97 20-day EMA / High Nov 29
• PRICE: 1.0572 @ 05:46 GMT Dec 6
• SUP 1: 1.0461/0335 Low Dec 2 / Low Nov 22 and the bear trigger   
• SUP 2: 1.0311 1.382 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.0258 1.500 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing  
• SUP 4: 1.0201 61.8% retracement of the Sep 28 - Juk 18 bull leg     

EURUSD traded higher Thursday and is testing initial firm resistance at 1.0583, the 20-day EMA. Clearance of this average would signal scope for a stronger corrective recovery and highlight potential for a climb towards 1.0716, the 50-day EMA. An extension higher would also allow for an unwinding of the recent oversold trend condition. The medium-term trend direction is down. The bear trigger lies at 1.0335, the Nov 22 low.  

GBPUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle  

• RES 4: 1.3048 High Nov 6 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2961 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 bear leg  
• RES 2: 1.2840 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 1.2771 High Dec 5 
• PRICE: 1.2755 @ 16:36 GMT Dec 5 
• SUP 1: 1.2617/2487 Low Dec 2 / Low Nov 22 and the bear trigger   
• SUP 2: 1.2446 Low May 9
• SUP 3. 1.2367 76.4% retracement of the Oct 4 ‘23 - Sep 26 uptrend 
• SUP 4: 1.2300 Low Apr 22 and a key support     

GBPUSD traded to a fresh short-term trend high on Thursday and the pair is holding on to its gains. A move higher is considered corrective and is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Initial firm resistance at 1.2720, the 20-day EMA, has been breached, signalling scope for a stronger recovery towards the 50-day EMA, at 1.2840. The medium-term trend direction is down, the bear trigger is 1.2487, the Nov 22 low.   

EURGBP TECHS: Support Remains Intact For Now         

• RES 4: 0.8464 High Sep 11 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8448 High Oct 31 and reversal trigger 
• RES 2: 0.8404 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Nov 11 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.8346/76 50-day EMA / High Nov 19 and a bull trigger 
• PRICE: 0.8297 @ 06:41 GMT Dec 6  
• SUP 1: 0.8260 Low Nov 11 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 ‘22
• SUP 3: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support
• SUP 4: 0.8200 Round number support  

Key short-term support in EURGBP remains intact for now. Attention is on the bullish engulfing candle pattern on Nov 12, that highlights a possible reversal.  0.8260, the Nov 11 low, marks the key short-term support. A break of this level would cancel the candle pattern and confirm a resumption of the downtrend. This would open 0.8203, the Mar 7 ‘22 low and major support. Key short-term resistance and a bull trigger is 0.8376, the Nov 19 high.       

USDJPY TECHS: Short-Term Trend Needle Points South        

• RES 4: 156.88 2.236 proj of the Sep 16 - 27 - 30 price swing 
• RES 3: 155.89/156.75 High Nov 20 / 15 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 154.49 High Nov 26 
• RES 1: 151.25/151.94 50- and 20-day EMA values
• PRICE: 149.88 @ 06:47 GMT Dec 06 
• SUP 1: 148.65 Low Dec 03
• SUP 2: 148.17 50.0% retracement of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 bull leg 
• SUP 3: 147.35 Low Oct 8
• SUP 4: 147.33 3.0% 10-dma envelope 

A bear cycle in USDJPY remains intact. The pair traded to a fresh short-term  trend low on Tuesday, confirming a resumption of the retracement of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 rally. Price has recently traded through the 20- and 50-day EMAs - a bearish development. Sights are on 148.17, a Fibonacci retracement. A reversal higher would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 156.75, Nov 15 high. Initial firm resistance is 151.94, the 20-day EMA.    

EURJPY TECHS: Bear Threat Still Present             

• RES 4: 165.04/166.69 High Nov 15 / High Oct 31 and the bull trigger   
• RES 3: 164.76 High Nov 20 and a key short-term resistance 
• RES 2: 162.03 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 159.39/160.79 High Dec 4 / 20-day EMA  
• PRICE: 158.53 @ 07:08 GMT Dec 6
• SUP 1: 156.18 Low Dec 03
• SUP 2: 156.05 Low Sep 17
• SUP 3: 155.15 Low Sep 16 and a key support 
• SUP 4: 153.87 Low Dec 8 / 14 2023 

A bear cycle in EURJPY remains in play and this week’s gains are considered corrective. A number of retracement points have recently been cleared since the reversal on Oct 31. Most recently, 157.87, 76.4% of the Sep 16 - Oct 31 bull cycle, has been pierced. A clear break of it would strengthen a bearish theme and open 155.15, the Sep 16 low. Initial firm resistance is 160.79, the 20-day EMA.      

AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South           

• RES 4: 0.6762 High Oct 9   
• RES 3: 0.6733 High Oct 13             
• RES 2: 0.6579/88 50-day EMA / High Nov 7 and a reversal trigger  
• RES 1: 0.6508/50 20-day EMA / High Nov 25
• PRICE: 0.6430 @ 07:57 GMT Dec 06
• SUP 1: 0.6399 Low Dec 04
• SUP 3: 0.6350 Low Aug 5 and a key support 
• SUP 3: 0.6339 Low Nov 10 2023 
• SUP 4: 0.6259 1.000 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing 

The trend condition in AUDUSD remains bearish and this week’s fresh cycle low reinforces current conditions. The move down confirms a resumption of the downtrend. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for an extension towards 0.6350, the Aug 5 low and the next key support. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6508, the 20-day EMA. 

USDCAD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish             

• RES 4: 1.4309 2.0% 10-dma envelope  
• RES 3: 1.4246 2.00 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
• RES 2: 1.4196 1.764 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
• RES 1: 1.4090/4178 High Dec 02 / High Nov 26 and the bull trigger  
• PRICE: 1.4035 @ 08:05 GMT Dec 6
• SUP 1: 1.3996/28 20-day EMA / Low Nov 25 and a key support  
• SUP 2: 1.3892 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3822 Low Nov 6
• SUP 4: 1.3747 Low Oct 17

The trend condition in USDCAD remains bullish and the Nov 25 cycle high reinforces this theme. The break higher confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend and marked an extension of the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 1.4196 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support has been defined at 1.3928, the Nov 25 low. For now, short-term weakness is considered corrective.   

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H5) Corrective Pullback            

• RES 4: 138.00 Round number resistance           
• RES 3: 137.72 High Oct 1 and a key resistance 
• RES 2: 137.28 High Oct 2
• RES 1: 137.18 High Dec 2              
• PRICE: 136.41 @ 05:21 GMT Dec 6
• SUP 1: 135.93/135.38 Low Nov 29 / 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2  134.95 Low Nov 26              
• SUP 3: 134.55 Low Nov 25
• SUP 4: 133.17 Low Nov 20  

Despite the latest pullback, a bull cycle in Bund futures remains in play and the move lower is considered corrective. A move lower is allowing an overbought trend condition to unwind. Price has recently traded through 136.37, the 76.4% retracement of the Oct 1 - Nov 6 bear leg. A clear break of this level strengthens a bullish theme and opens 137.72, the Oct 1 high. Initial firm support lies at 135.38, the 20-day EMA.                   

BOBL TECHS: (H5) Support Lies At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 119.925 2.500 proj of the Nov 6 - 12 - 18 price swing        
• RES 3: 119.813 2.382 proj of the Nov 6 - 12 - 18 price swing   
• RES 2: 119.674 2.236 proj of the Nov 6 - 12 - 18 price swing 
• RES 1: 119.280/119.480 High Dec 4 and 5 / High Dec 3                        
• PRICE: 118.900 @ 05:38 GMT Dec 6  
• SUP 1: 118.760 Low Dec 5             
• SUP 2: 118.573 20-day EMA    
• SUP 3: 118.280 Low Nov 25    
• SUP 4: 118.000 Round number support  

Bobl futures maintain a firmer tone and the latest pullback is considered corrective - for now. A move down is allowing a short-term overbought condition to unwind. For bulls, scope is seen for a move towards 119.674 next, a Fibonacci projection. The bull trigger is 119.480, Monday’s high. Initial firm support lies at 118.573, the 20-day EMA. First support lies at 118.760, the Dec 5 low.     

SCHATZ TECHS: (H5) Monitoring Support          

• RES 4: 107.592 1.236 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - 26 price swing  
• RES 3: 107.505 1.000 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - 26 price swing
• RES 2: 107.480 High Dec 2 / 3 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 107.385 High Dec 4      
• PRICE: 107.215 @ 06:13 GMT Dec 6   
• SUP 1: 107.175 Low Dec 5           
• SUP 2: 107.135 Low Nov 26 and a key short-term support   
• SUP 3: 107.045 Low Nov 22
• SUP 4: 106.960 Low Nov 20 

Recent gains in Schatz futures highlight a continuation of the bull cycle that started Oct 31. A bullish theme remains intact and the latest pullback is for now, considered corrective. The short-term bull trigger has been defined at 107.480, the Dec 2 and 3 high. A break of this level would open 107.505 and 107.592, Fibonacci projection points. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 107.135, the Nov 26 low. A break of it would signal the start of a reversal.                               

GILT TECHS: (H5) Bull Cycle Remains In Play    

• RES 4: 97.00 Round number resistance    
• RES 3: 96.83 2.618 proj of the Nov 18 - 19 - 20 price swing    
• RES 2: 96.67 2.500 proj of the Nov 18 - 19 - 20 price swing  
• RES 1: 96.18/54 High Dec 5 / 3               
• PRICE: 95.72 @ Close Dec 5
• SUP 1: 95.49/17 Low Dec 4 / Low Nov 28                     
• SUP 2: 94.66 Low Nov 25 
• SUP 3: 93.96 Low Nov 22
• SUP 4: 93.40 Low Nov 18 and a key short-term support

A bullish corrective cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and recent gains reinforce the current short-term condition. Sights are on 96.67 next,  a Fibonacci projection point. On the downside, a stronger reversal lower would refocus attention on the initial key support at 93.40, the Nov 18 low. A breach of this support would be a bearish development and highlight a reversal. First support lies at 95.49, the Dec 4 low, followed by 95.17, the Nov 28 low.                

BTP TECHS: (H5) Overbought However The Trend Remains Bullish                      

• RES 4: 124.00 Round number resistance    
• RES 3: 123.83 1.764 proj of the Nov 7 - 15 - 18 price swing
• RES 2: 123.43 1.618 proj of the Nov 7 - 15 - 18 price swing 
• RES 1: 123.26 High Dec 5  
• PRICE: 122.96 @ Close Dec 5 
• SUP 1: 121.75 Low Nov 29      
• SUP 2: 121.11 20-day EMA    
• SUP 3: 120.05 Low Nov 25  
• SUP 4: 119.11 Low Nov 18  

BTP futures traded higher again, yesterday, marking an extension of the bull cycle that started Nov 7. The latest rally has resulted in a move through key resistance at 121.97, the Oct 1 high. The clear break of this level highlights an important bullish development and opens 123.43 next, a Fibonacci projection. The trend is overbought and a corrective pullback would allow this condition to unwind. Support to watch is 121.11, the 20-day EMA.           

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z4) Holding On To This Week’s Gains          

• RES 4: 5015.00 High Oct 21 
• RES 3: 5015.00/5106.00 High Oct 29 / High Sep 30 and a bull trigger       
• RES 2: 4961.00 High Nov 6 and a key short-term resistance 
• RES 1: 4966.00 High Dec 5         
• PRICE: 4950.00 @ 06:19 GMT Dec 6  
• SUP 1: 4844.40/4699.00 20-day EMA / Low Nov 19 and bear trigger      
• SUP 2: 4707.00 Low Aug 9   
• SUP 3: 4662.12 .76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 4586.00 Low Aug 6   

Eurostoxx 50 futures have traded higher this week and the contract is holding on to its latest gains. The move higher undermines a recent bearish theme. Price has traded through the 50-day EMA, at 4868.67. The clear breach of this average strengthens a bullish theme and note that 4961.00, the Nov 6 high, has been pierced. This opens 5015.00, the Oct 29 high. Key support is 4699.00, the Nov 19 low. Initial support lies at 4844.40, the 20-day EMA.    

E-MINI S&P: (Z4)Northbound 

• RES 4: 6200.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 6184.00 1.000 proj of the Nov 4 - 11 - 19 price swing   
• RES 2: 6145.26 1.236 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing   
• RES 1: 6107.25 High Dec 5      
• PRICE: 6085.75 @ 07:27 GMT Dec 6
• SUP 1: 6000.00 20-day EMA      
• SUP 2: 5905.97 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 5855.00 Low Nov 19  
• SUP 4: 5814.75 Low Nov 6

The S&P E-Minis contract maintains a bullish tone and price traded higher yesterday. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and signals scope for a continuation near-term. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Sights are on the 6145.26, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch lies at 5990.65, the 20-day EMA.        

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (G5) Bearish Outlook             

• RES 4: $84.32 - High Jul 5 and a key resistance 
• RES 3: $81.83 - High Jul 18 
• RES 2: $79.98/80.44 - High Oct 7 / 76.4% of Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg
• RES 1: $75.79 - High Nov 5       
• PRICE: $71.94 @ 07:09 GMT Dec 6 
• SUP 1: $69.95 - Low Oct 29   
• SUP 2: $69.52/67.89 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $66.70 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
• SUP 4: $64.34 - 2.000 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing

Brent futures are trading inside a range. The outlook is bearish and the Nov 25 move lower reinforces this theme. A continuation down would open $69.52 the Oct 1 low, and $67.89, the Sep 10 low and a key support. For bulls, a clearer reversal higher would instead refocus attention on key resistance at $79.98, the Oct 7 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is unchanged at $75.79, the Nov 5 high.           

WTI TECHS: (F5) Still Looking For Weakness           

• RES 4: $80.25 - High Jul 5  
• RES 3: $78.03 - High Jul 18
• RES 2: $74.83/77.04 - High Oct 10 / 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $72.41 - High Nov 7   
• PRICE: $68.17 @ 07:21 GMT Dec 6
• SUP 1: $66.32 - Low Oct 29     
• SUP 2: $65.74/63.90 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $62.73 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
• SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number

A bearish threat in WTI futures remains present and the Nov 25 move lower reinforces this theme. A resumption of bearish price action would open $65.74, the Oct 1 low, and $63.90, the Sep 10 low and key support. For bulls, a stronger reversal to the upside would instead refocus attention on the key short-term resistance at $77.04, the Oct 8 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is unchanged at $72.41, the Nov 7 high.            

GOLD TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bullish     

• RES 4: $2790.1 - High Oct 31 and the bull trigger  
• RES 3: $2750.0 - High Nov 5
• RES 2: $2730.4 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg     
• RES 1: $2721.4 - High Nov 25     
• PRICE: $2636.9 @ 07:26 GMT Dec 6 
• SUP 1: $2605.3/2564.4 - Low Nov 26 / 18 
• SUP 2: $2536.9 - Low Nov 14 and a key support
• SUP 3: $2511.1 - Low Sep 12
• SUP 4: $2472.0 - Low Sep 4   

Gold continues to trade inside a range, for now. The long-term trend condition remains bullish and the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg appears to have been a correction. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Resistance to watch is $2721.4, the Nov 25 high. Clearance of this level would highlight a bullish short-term development. Key support to monitor is $2536.9, the Nov 14 low.              

SILVER TECHS: Monitoring Resistance At The 50-Day EMA             

• RES 4: $35.226 - 61.8% of the 2011 - 2020 major bear leg  
• RES 3: $35.167 - 2.00 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing 
• RES 2: $33.125/34.903 - High Nov 1 / High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $31.161/537 - 50-day EMA / High Nov 19                           
• PRICE: 31.281 @ 08:09 GMT Dec 6  
• SUP 1: $29.642 - Low Nov 28       
• SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle 
• SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 
• SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8  

Silver has traded higher this week. However, the bear cycle that started Oct 23 remains in play and the metal continues to trade closer to its latest lows. Price has recently traded through a trendline drawn from the Aug 8 low. A resumption of the bear leg would open $28.446, a Fibonacci retracement. The 50-day EMA, at  $31.161, has been pierced. A clear of the average would highlight a possible reversal.