TURKEY: MNI CBRT Preview: January 2023
Jan-18 16:27
- The CBRT is expected maintain the one-week repo rate at 9.00%, as the bank remains highly politically influenced and willing to look through inflation in excess of 60%.
- Fundamental pressure on the lira is likely to have increased due to the lack of tourist revenues over the winter period, meaning further rate cuts would make maintaining the lira’s stability more difficult.
- President Erdogan has said elections will be brought forward to May from the originally scheduled June date, where the path of Turkish macroeconomic policy in H2 2023 could shift drastically. Despite the opposition yet to name a unified contender, current polling suggests that the election is in the balance.
- Full MNI Preview including sell-side analyst views here
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CROSS ASSET: Gold Edges to New Lows as Yields, USD Weigh
Dec-19 16:15
- The creep higher in US yields and the greenback is working against spot gold here, with the price breaking down to new session lows of $1784.00 at pixel time.
- Volumes across gold futures have ticked higher, but nothing too impressive given the thin volumes ahead of the holiday interruptions. Around $980mln in Feb23 gold futures has crossed over the past 20 mins or so - but running volumes are still considerably below average for this time of day (around 40% below average in recent trade).
- Next notable support cuts in at $1774.3/65.9 - the 20-day EMA / Low Dec 5 as well as $1729.0 - Low Nov 23 and key short-term support.
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK, Large 10Y SaleThrough Session Low
Dec-19 16:12
- -10,120 TYH3 114-00, sell-through 114-03 post-time bid at 1105:00ET. Incidentally, session low is 114-02.5 (-23.5)
STIR: BLOCK, Mar'23 SOFR Put Fly
Dec-19 15:58
- Total 15,000 SFRH3 94.81/95.12/95.50 put flys, 17.5 ref 95.175 at 1050-1055ET
