CBR: MNI CBR Preview - October 2025: Odds Lean Toward Cut

• Treasuries drifting near the top end of a narrow overnight range - near the middle of Monday's range on light volume.
• TYZ5 trades at 112-24.5 (+2) on cumulative volumes of 193k. 10Y yield -.0135 at 4.1331%.
• The pullback in Treasury futures from their recent highs appear corrective. Price has moved through the 20-day EMA, at 112-28+. The break signals scope for a deeper retracement and attention turns to the 50-day EMA, at 112-08+ and the next key support. Resistance well above at 113-29, Sep 11 high and the bull trigger.
• Data picks up after slow start to the week: regional Fed data - Philly Fed Non-Mfg Activity (0830ET) and Richmond Fed Mfg Index (1000ET), Current Acct Balance (0830ET), S&P Global US flash PMIs (0945ET).
• Fedspeak: Main focus on Fed Chair Powell economic outlook/moderated Q&A (1235ET), Chicago Fed Goolsbee on CNBC (0830ET) and later on ABC (1530ET), Fed VC Bowman economic outlook/moderated Q&A (0900ET), Atlanta Fed Bostic economic outlook/moderated Q&A (1000ET).
• Treasury supply: $85B 6W bill auction (1130ET), $69B 2Y Note auction (91282CPB1) at 1300ET.
• Politics: At 0950ET, President Trump delivers remarks to the United Nations General Assembly; bi- and multilateral meetings follow with the President giving remarks at the United Nations Leaders' Reception (closed press) at 1920ET.

NATO has released a statement following a meeting called earlier on 23 Sep at the behest of Estonia. This comes after a series of alleged Russian incursions into NATO airspace using drones, fighter jets, and reconnaissance aircraft. NATO says the 19 Sep incursion in Estonia's airspace "is part of a wider pattern of increasingly irresponsible Russian behaviour." NATO: "Russia bears full responsibility for these actions, which are escalatory, risk miscalculation and endanger lives. They must stop."

• NATO: "Russia should be in no doubt: NATO and Allies will employ, in accordance with international law, all necessary military and non-military tools to defend ourselves and deter all threats from all directions."
• Secretary General Mark Rutte is set to hold a presser at 06:45ET/11:45BST/12:45CET on the escalating number of alleged Russian incursions.
• At a meeting of the UN Security Council on 22 Sep, senior officials from NATO states lambasted Russia for their alleged incursions. UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper referred to Russia's "reckless actions", EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas said the multiple incidents meant they could not be considered an accident, while Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said Russian aircraft in NATO airspace risk being shot down.
• The greatest risk of escalation comes not from a planned attack from either side, but from miscalculation or accident. The more incursions experienced along NATO's eastern and northern borders, the more opportunities there are for such unplanned but potentially devastating incidents to occur. 

• On the commodity front, Gold is in a clear bull cycle and shallow short-term pullbacks remain corrective. A fresh all-time high once again, yesterday and today, confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend. The next objective is the $3800.0 handle. Initial firm support lies at $3594.0, the 20-day EMA. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend.
• In the oil space, the trend condition in WTI is unchanged - a bear cycle remains intact and recent gains are considered corrective. The pullback from the Sep 2 high highlights a possible reversal and the end of a corrective phase between Aug 13 - Sep 2. Initial resistance to watch is $65.43, the Sep 2 high. A stronger resumption of weakness would open $57.50, the May 30 low.