MNI: Carney Has Support To Break Longtime Big Project Barriers

Prime Minister Mark Carney has the support needed to complete big infrastructure projects even as Canada's provinces signal resistance to new energy routes, a former minister and an ex-prime ministerial trade adviser told MNI.

“He has a united Canada, a Canada more united than I’ve seen in my lifetime to get big things done, and to take down the barriers to productivity and prosperity that we imposed on ourselves," Scott Brison, a former public works minister, said in an interview at the Conference de Montreal Tuesday. "Conditions for success are there, but it’s challenging.”

Brison knows how politics works from both sides of the aisle, having been a lawmaker for Conservatives and Liberals. Under Liberals he also was minister of the Treasury board that sets government-wide departmental rules and was the prime minister's aide on Canada-U.S. relations.

Carney has introduced legislation aimed at consolidating overlapping provincial and federal reviews into one office to quicken approvals of projects in the "national interest," deeming them approved with conditions laid out within two years. That would pare reviews that sometimes took over five years, but Carney has also said he can't force provinces like British Columbia and Quebec to host new pipelines from Alberta's oil patch. 

WONDERFULLY PLEASED

His resume -- a former BOC and BOE Governor and before that a Goldman Sachs executive -- make him "equipped to thoughtfully develop solutions for the global economic challenges that Canada faces," Brison said. 

The biggest foreign issue is Carney has weeks rather than years to cut a deal with Donald Trump lifting tariffs that may have already caused a recession. John Willding II, a lawyer at Stinson LLP invited to the conference to share his views on working with Trump, said Carney has a much better shot than Justin Trudeau did. 

“People in DC have been wonderfully pleased with Mr. Carney,” Willding said. “There’s a deal to be done with Canada, I’m not quite convinced there’s a multilateral deal” because “there’s a tremendous amount of animosity with respect to Mexico.” 

He also said Carney, who hasn't yet retaliated against the doubling of steel and aluminum tariffs, shouldn't push back such that the U.S. feels obligated to reshore all of its needs.  

A LOT OF COVINCING

Quebec is Canada's major supplier of aluminum to the United States and a key pathway for moving oil and gas from Alberta to overseas markets. Rodolphe Husny, who advised former Prime Minister Stephen Harper on trade and Quebec politics, says Carney's pull with investors is stronger than Trudeau's, but change will be slow.

“It will require a lot of convincing," he said in an interview Wednesday. “It’s going to be hard at least in the short term to change that mindset and attract foreign investment.” 

Brison, now an executive at BMO, agreed there are deep pitfalls to reshaping the economy. Projects stalled under Trudeau, aided by resistance from environmental and indigenous groups, and previous administrations allowed a major housing shortage to build up. 

“Getting big things done will require an agility, and an energy and a rapidity that is not always associated with government,” Brison said. (See: MNI INTERVIEW: Carney Minority Govt To Last On Economy- Raitt)

SUPERPOWER CONSENSUS

Provinces have pledged to join Carney's efforts creating "one Canadian economy out of thirteen" by July 1, a reference to internal trade barriers. So far though, rather than negotiate a comprehensive deal premiers are signing bilaterals, often between leaders from the same party. 

Canada's big test is an energy pipeline from Alberta to overseas markets and so far British Columbia and Quebec haven't committed. Brison like other former officials says Carney's election win on a platform of "build baby build" suggests he can make deals happen. (See: MNI INTERVIEW: Carney Quebec Gain Boosts Pipeline Odds- Surkes)

Without referencing a pipeline Quebec's Natural Resources Minister Maite Blanchette Vezina at the conference mentioned Carney's new law alongside her willingness to advance suitable projects. 

Quebec has an election next year, so while polls show more support for a pipeline “it’s going to be a very tough topic,” Husny said. “If we don’t send the signal that we are open, no one will put forward a project.”

Early meetings between Carney and premiers have yielded comments about working together, and avoided past confrontations eroding unity. "He will achieve the consensus that enables us to become the energy superpower,” Brison said.