MNI INTERVIEW: Carney Quebec Gain Boosts Pipeline Odds- Surkes

Mark Carney's strong election results in Quebec after campaigning on building Canada into an energy superpower make conditions as favorable as they have ever been to build projects like a new east-west oil pipeline, a top adviser in the previous Liberal government told MNI.

"Mr. Carney has has a good hand to play with Quebec," said Marci Surkes, executive director of policy and cabinet affairs for Justin Trudeau and now with the Compass Rose consultancy. "He's got to strike while the iron is hot." 

Quebec Premier Francois Legault told reporters this week he's glad to see Carney's focus on the economy, and in recent months suggested longstanding public resistance to transporting Alberta oil is fading amid U.S. threats of economic domination. Liberals grew to 44 seats in Quebec and the separatist Bloc Quebecois lost about a third to end up with 22. While BQ Leader Yves-Francois Blanchet opposes a pipeline he offered to cooperate with Carney through U.S. trade talks. 

"Quebec is very proud of its own energy exports, and can be its own superpower, particularly with room to grow on hydro and and other renewables. He's got some conditions that are quite favorable," Surkes said.

The cabinet Carney announces in coming weeks may include strong Quebec voices to discuss resource projects. Former Quebec finance minister and bank chief economist Carlos Leitao won his debut federal campaign, and returning alongside him is Steven Guilbeault, a former Greenpeace activist and environment minister. 

RESONATING MESSAGE

It's also noteworthy Carney's message about building the economy worked in Quebec despite his limited French, Surkes said. The former BOC and BOE Governor, as well as a UN climate envoy, was careful to campaign on traditional and green energy, something she said will ease other provincial tensions. Indigenous leaders with unresolved land and human rights claims have also resisted some resource projects. 

"Every provincial leader will have to see themselves in some aspect of making Canada an energy superpower," Surkes said. "If it includes conventional and renewable, then you've got a broader audience." Officials have also discussed boosting shipments of LNG, greater use of small nuclear reactors, electric vehicles and liquified hydrogen. 

Federal leaders say Canada needs a new east-west pipeline to bypass one running through Michigan on the way to major markets in Ontario. At the moment no company has pledged to revive the "Energy East" pipeline from Alberta to the Atlantic Coast. 

LOT OF THINGS DONE

Signals about new trade routes also helps Carney in a meeting due with Donald Trump in coming days, Surkes suggested. "Demonstrating that Canada absolutely wants for this relationship to be, to continue to be prosperous and critical to both nations, but also that we can and will pursue other relationships and partners all around the world in order to get to that point of being able to demonstrate that we are not operating simply at the behest of the U.S. administration," she said.

While Carney came just shy of winning a majority of seats in the House of Commons, it's close enough for the Liberals to work on a case-by-case basis and almost govern as if they had a majority, Surkes said. The Conservatives and NDP saw both their leaders lose their seats, giving even more time and strength to Carney, she said.

"This government can can operate effectively for at least 12 months, probably 18," she said. "A minority government over the course of 18 months or 24 can get a lot of things done."