MNI BOE Review - November 2025: Where is the bar for December?

For the full MNI BOE Review, including summaries of sellside views click here.

• The title of our BOE Preview was “It’s All About Bailey” and we expected a 5-4 vote (without much confidence over which way the 5-4 vote would swing). The outcome was a 5-4 vote to leave Bank Rate on hold and the new individual member paragraphs in the Minutes indicated that Governor Bailey was the only MPC member who did have see their vote as a clear cut decision at this meeting.
• We think that overall if data comes in line with the BOE's updated short-term projections and we get a disinflationary Budget that Bailey will support a near-term cut.
• We look into detail at the near-term projections with some material downgrades to the August MPR projections making it harder to undershoot the forecasts.
• We think it unlikely barring very large surprises that we would see any of the other 8 MPC members not repeating their votes at the December meeting.
• 9/21 sellside reviews that we have read see a change in view with 16/21 analysts now looking for a December cut. We look at these views in more detail.