MNI BOE Preview - November 2025: It's All About Bailey

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• Thursday's MPC decision is far from certain - indeed we would categorise our own view of the outcome as 50/50 between a 25bp cut and a hold.
• We look at the drivers for each members' vote and the key data since the last meeting / August forecasts.
• In essence, we think a 5-4 vote is the most likely outcome but that it could deliver a cut or a hold. Governor Bailey's vote will be the deciding factor here, in our view.
• We have also summarised over 20 sellside previews.