MNI ASIA OPEN: Tsy Yields Gain Ahead Friday's CPI
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- MNI: New Russian Oil Sanctions: Overview and Implications
- MNI US INFLATION: MNI US CPI Preview Update: The Year’s Last ‘Reliable’ CPI Read?
- MNI US DATA: Kansas City Manufacturing Activity Index Highest Since 2022
- MNI CANADA DATA: Sept Flash Retail Sales -0.7% Following Aug +1% On Autos
- MNI US DATA: An In-Line Existing Home Sales Report
US
MNI US OUTLOOK/OPINION: Sequential CPI Drivers: Stronger Goods vs Softer Services
In broad terms, analysts expect core goods inflation to have accelerated closer to 0.35% M/M in September (range 0.25-0.44) after 0.28%. However, this is offset by a moderation in the far more heavily weighted core services category, seen at 0.31% M/M (range 0.28-0.33) after 0.35%.
- This core goods strength comes despite used car prices seen increasing by a smaller rate than in August, whilst moderating core services is primarily expected to have come from rental categories.
- On supercore inflation, a typically small sample of analyst estimates averages 0.38% M/M (range 0.30-0.42) after 0.33%. That acceleration is despite some downward drivers from airfares and lodging away from home, with the difference possibly accounted for by the heavily weighted medical care components.
NEWS
MNI: New Russian Oil Sanctions: Overview and Implications
Executive Summary: The U.S. has initiated new sanctions on leading Russian crude exporters Rosneft and Lukoil.
- China and India are most affected by the new measures, with importers suspending purchases in the near-term
- In the longer-term, India’s imports are expected to be more impacted than Russia-China flows.
- Download Full Report Here
MNI SECURITY: Zelenskyy Presses Euro Leaders To Approve Use Of Frozen Russian Assets
Reuters reporting comments from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's address to EU leaders in Brussels, primarily designed to discuss the mechanism for using frozen Russian sovereign assets to fund Ukraine and press for greater military support, including air defences. Zelenskyy said that the Russian assets should “not only be used for humanitarian purposes” but should be used for domestic weapons production and “should be available for purchases of both European and US weapons.”
MNI RUSSIA: Putin Talks On US Sanctions & Missile Strikes
State-run RIA and Tass reporting comments from President Vladimir Putin, his first public pronouncements since the imposition of US tariffs on Russian oil producers. Putin: "New sanctions won't affect the russian economy...[Sanctions] are an attempt to put pressure on Russia. No self-respecting country ever does anything under pressure."
MNI RUSSIA: For Min-Sanctions "Counterproductive"; Medvedev Says Trump 'On Warpath'
The Russian Foreign Ministry have issued its first comments following the announcement of US sanctions on oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil. Ministry spox says the sanctions are "counterproductive from the perspective of finding peace in Ukraine...If the US follows the example of previous US administrations, then it will be a failure".
- Regarding the cancellation of the Trump-Putin summit in Budapest, ministry spox says that Moscow is "ready to continue contacts with the US State Department". A phone call between Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio earlier in the week was viewed as a major driver of the cancellation and sanctions, with Rubio believed to have informed Trump that Russia is showing no signs of making concessions.
MNI JAPAN: New Econ Min Talks On Energy, Rare Earths & US Relations
Reuters reports comments from the newly-appointed Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry, Ryosei Akazawa, on a broad range of topics. On energy, Akazawa says the Sakhalin II gas project in Russia "plays an extremely important role in energy security". Adds that the "Asian LNG market is expected to be tight [and the ] procurement price for Japan will soar if Sakhalin II supplies are to be replaced." On rare earths constraints: Akazawa says "China's rare earth moves potentially have a major impact", and that the export controls "could mean Japan can't make cars."
US TSYS
MNI US TSYS: Tsy Yields Up With Surge in Crude, Sanctions on Russia Oil Giants
- Treasuries look to finish weaker-near late session lows, coinciding with a surge in crude oil (WTI +3.25 at 61.75), after the US sanctioned Russia oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil overnight.
- China and India are most affected by the new measures, with importers suspending purchases in the near-term. Late headlines annc Pres Trump expects to meet with Pres Xinext Thursday
- The Russian Foreign Ministry have issued its first comments following the announcement of US sanctions on oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil. Ministry spox says the sanctions are "counterproductive from the perspective of finding peace in Ukraine...If the US follows the example of previous US administrations, then it will be a failure".
- Currently, TYZ5 contract trades -11 at 113-14.5 vs. -13.5 low, 10Y yield at 3.9951% +.0458. Firm support lies at 113-06, the 20-day EMA. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position and this set-up highlights a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 114-10, the Apr 7 high (cont) and the next key resistance.
- Look ahead to Friday's data: The median unrounded headline CPI estimate ticks up from 0.40 to 0.41% M/M and core ticks up from 0.30 to 0.32% but the broad story is unsurprisingly still the same.
- Equity earnings after the close include: Ford Motor Co, Newmont, Norfolk Southern, Western Union, Deckers Outdoor, Intel and Baker Hughes.
OVERNIGHT DATA
MNI US DATA: An In-Line Existing Home Sales Report
There were no surprises in the September existing home sales report, with sales nudging higher but still depressed. Relative supply remained high by recent year standards but not historically so, whilst median house price growth remained mild at ~2% Y/Y. Existing home sales were completely as expected as they nudged up to 4.06m (saar) in September after an unrevised 4.00m in August, for a 1.5% M/M increase.
MNI US DATA: Kansas City Manufacturing Activity Index Highest Since 2022
In the third regional Fed manufacturing survey for October, the Kansas City Fed steadily pushed to a new high since 2022 in contrast to some volatile readings for Empire (most recently higher) and Philly (most recently sliding lower). The improvement was led by production whilst new orders remained tepid but at least a firm improvement compared to recent years. The Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity index increased to 6 in October (consensus 2 from a small survey of four estimates) after 4 in September.
MNI US INFLATION: MNI US CPI Preview Update: The Year’s Last ‘Reliable’ CPI Read?
- See the below link for a small update to the original MNI US CPI preview published on Oct 22, now also including unrounded and detailed estimates from Morgan Stanley and NatWest.
- The median unrounded headline CPI estimate ticks up from 0.40 to 0.41% M/M and core ticks up from 0.30 to 0.32% but the broad story is unsurprisingly still the same.
- https://media.marketnews.com/USCPI_Prev_Oct2025_update_24969dda49.pdf
MNI CANADA DATA: Sept Flash Retail Sales -0.7% Following Aug +1% On Autos
- Aug retail sales +1% to CAD70.4b led by 1.8% MOM increase in autos.
- Autos have risen for 3 consecutive months.
- Retail sales increased in 6 out of 9 sub-sectors in Aug.
- YOY retail trade +4.9%, a sign of optimism following some recession worries.
- Consumer spending aided by BOC rate cuts to 2.5% from 5%; economists see another cut next week to fend off damage to exports from trade war.
- StatsCan also reported Thurs: Flash Sept manufacturing sales +2.8% led by transport, petroleum and coal; jobless benefits recipients little changed for 2nd consecutive month in Aug after rising 12% in first half of the year.
MARKETS SNAPSHOT
Key market levels of markets in late NY trade:
DJIA up 182.17 points (0.39%) at 46775.14
S&P E-Mini Future up 46.25 points (0.69%) at 6783.25
Nasdaq up 228 points (1%) at 22967.82
US 10-Yr yield is up 4.6 bps at 3.9951%
US Dec 10-Yr futures are down 11/32 at 113-14.5
EURUSD up 0.0006 (0.05%) at 1.1618
USDJPY up 0.56 (0.37%) at 152.53
#VALUE!
Gold is up $34.31 (0.84%) at $4132.74
European bourses closing levels:
EuroStoxx 50 up 29.12 points (0.52%) at 5668.33
FTSE 100 up 63.57 points (0.67%) at 9578.57
German DAX up 56.66 points (0.23%) at 24207.79
French CAC 40 up 18.91 points (0.23%) at 8225.78
US TREASURY FUTURES CLOSE
3M10Y +4.367, 11.056 (L: 5.083 / H: 11.698)
2Y10Y +0.597, 50.869 (L: 49.89 / H: 52.918)
2Y30Y +0.72, 109.126 (L: 108.312 / H: 111.927)
5Y30Y -0.158, 97.401 (L: 97.087 / H: 99.504)
Current futures levels:
Dec 2-Yr futures down 2.75/32 at 104-12.25 (L: 104-12.125 / H: 104-15.375)
Dec 5-Yr futures down 7.25/32 at 109-22.75 (L: 109-22.5 / H: 109-30.75)
Dec 10-Yr futures down 11/32 at 113-14.5 (L: 113-13.5 / H: 113-26.5)
Dec 30-Yr futures down 17/32 at 118-24 (L: 118-16 / H: 119-13)
Dec Ultra futures down 26/32 at 123-4 (L: 122-27 / H: 124-04)
MNI US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z5) Bullish Trend Structure
- RES 4: 115-00+ High Oct 1 ‘24 (cont)
- RES 3: 114-21+ 1.00 proi of the Aug 18 - Sep 11 - 25 price swing
- RES 2: 114-10 High Apr 7 (cont) and a key resistance
- RES 1: 114-02 High Oct 17
- PRICE: 113-17 @ 11:12 BST Oct 23
- SUP 1: 113-06 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 112-30 Low Oct 13
- SUP 3: 112-23+ 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 112-06 Low Sep 25 and a reversal trigger
A bullish structure in Treasuries remains intact. The contract recently breached a key resistance at 113-29, the Sep 11 high, to confirm a resumption of the medium-term uptrend. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position and this set-up highlights a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 114-10, the Apr 7 high (cont) and the next key resistance. Firm support lies at 113-06, the 20-day EMA.
SOFR FUTURES CLOSE
Current White pack (Dec 25-Sep 26):
Dec 25 -0.015 at 96.360
Mar 26 -0.045 at 96.60
Jun 26 -0.060 at 96.820
Sep 26 -0.065 at 96.965
Red Pack (Dec 26-Sep 27) -0.065 to -0.06
Green Pack (Dec 27-Sep 28) -0.07 to -0.065
Blue Pack (Dec 28-Sep 29) -0.065 to -0.06
Gold Pack (Dec 29-Sep 30) -0.065 to -0.06
REFERENCE RATES
US TSYS: Repo Reference Rates
- Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 4.21% (-0.02), volume: $2.956T
- Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 4.18% (-0.03), volume: $1.152T
- Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TCR): 4.18% (-0.03), volume: $1.123T
- (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)
STIR: FRBNY EFFR for prior session:
- Daily Effective Fed Funds Rate: 4.11% (+0.00), volume: $91B
- Daily Overnight Bank Funding Rate: 4.11% (+0.00), volume: $180B
FED Reverse Repo Operation
RRP usage rebounds to $6.941B with 15 counterparties this afternoon from $4.005B Wednesday. Compares to $3,516B on Tuesday, Oct 13 (lowest level since early April 2021) & this year's high usage of $460.731B on June 30.
MNI PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Roundup: Pershing Square 7Y on Tap
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 10/23 $Benchmark Pershing Square 7Y +200a
- $7.1B Priced Wednesday, $24.9B/wk
- 10/22 $2B *Softbank $900M 35.5NC5.5 7.625%, $1.1B 40NC10 8.25% (includes E750M 37NC7)
- 10/22 $1.6B *Dominican Republic 10Y 5.875%
- 10/22 $1.5B *Alberta 10Y SOFR+81
- 0/22 $1B *Rep of Korea WNG 5Y +17
- 10/22 $1B *GM Financial 3Y +78
MNI FOREX: USDJPY Rises with US Yields, NOK Boosted by Oil Price Surge
- US yields rose across the board on Thursday, assisted by the near 6% surge for crude futures on the back of sanctions on Russian oil producers. This dynamic has weighed on the Japanese yen specifically, allowing USDJPY to further extend its bounce to 152.80 session highs. Rallying equities following the US open has also provided a cross/JPY tailwind.
- Overall, the USD index is just 0.15% higher on Thursday, likely a result of market participants awaiting the US CPI report scheduled on Friday.
- Markets were leaning against GBP through the London close, helping pressure GBPUSD to new daily lows and, importantly, EURGBP through yesterday's post-inflation high. There's been no specific newsflow or headlines behind the GBP underperformance so far Thursday, however the currency is the second worst performer in G10.
- With EURGBP through 0.8713, markets are narrowing in on 0.8725 and 0.8751, the next key upside levels (marking the Oct 10 & 17 and Sep 25 high respectively).
- The Australian dollar tops the G10 leaderboard, with AUDJPY (+0.92%) a notable beneficiary of today’s dynamics. For AUDUSD, spot has risen back above 0.6500 and remains in consolidation mode. Attention is on the Oct 14 reversal pattern - a hammer candle. It signals the end of the bear cycle that started Sep 17. Note that moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant medium-term uptrend.
- NOK is off the session's strongest levels, but also continues to outperform the G10 basket amid today's solid rally in crude oil benchmarks. USDNOK is down 0.4%, testing support at 9.9754 (50% retracement of the September 17 to October 14 upswing). A breach would expose clustered support around the 9.9000 level.
- Ahead of the US CPI report, UK retail sales and Eurozone flash PMIs are expected. RBA Governor Bullock is also due to speak Friday.
MNI Political Risk – Argentina Midterm Election Preview
Argentina holds Congressional elections on Sunday, 26 October in a race that has garnered more international media and financial market attention than would usually be the case for a partial midterm election. Half the seats in the Chamber of Deputies and one-third of the Senate are up for election, with the outcome set to have a significant impact on President Javier Milei's ability to pass his policy programme through the legislature.
Full PDF Publication: https://mni.marketnews.com/4nfpo2l
FRIDAY DATA CALENDAR
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 24/10/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** |  SE | PPI |
| 24/10/2025 | 0600/0700 | *** |  GB | Retail Sales |
| 24/10/2025 | 0645/0845 | ** |  FR | Consumer Sentiment |
| 24/10/2025 | 0700/0900 | ** |  ES | PPI |
| 24/10/2025 | 0715/0915 | ** | FR | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
| 24/10/2025 | 0715/0915 | ** | FR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
| 24/10/2025 | 0730/0930 | ** |  DE | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
| 24/10/2025 | 0730/0930 | ** | DE | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
| 24/10/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** |  EU | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
| 24/10/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
| 24/10/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Composite PMI (p) |
| 24/10/2025 | 0800/1000 | EU | ECB Cipollone Fireside Chat on International Finance | |
| 24/10/2025 | 0830/0930 | *** | GB | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI flash |
| 24/10/2025 | 0830/0930 | *** | GB | S&P Global Services PMI flash |
| 24/10/2025 | 0830/0930 | *** | GB | S&P Global Composite PMI flash |
| 24/10/2025 | 1200/0800 | ** |  BR | Brazil Preliminary CPI |
| 24/10/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** |  US | CPI |
| 24/10/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | CPI |
| 24/10/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | CPI |
| 24/10/2025 | 1300/1500 | ** |  BE | BNB Business Confidence |
| 24/10/2025 | 1345/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global Manufacturing Index (Flash) |
| 24/10/2025 | 1345/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global Services Index (flash) |
| 24/10/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | New Home Sales |
| 24/10/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | U. Mich. Survey of Consumers |
| 24/10/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Inflation Expectation |
| 24/10/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | New Home Sales |
| 24/10/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
| 24/10/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
