EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
US
MNI FED BRIEF: NY Fed Williams Sees Inflation Uptick From Tariffs
New U.S. tariffs will likely push prices higher later this year but also raise concerns about the ongoing strength of business investment and consumer spending, and the Federal Reserve should take its time before making any further cuts to interest rates, New York Fed President John Williams said Tuesday.
NEWS
MNI US-RUSSIA: Sanctions Must Be Lifted To Normalise US-Russia Relations - Kremlin
Reuters carrying comments from Kremlin spokesperson Dmitri Peskov, speaking on major developments in the war in Ukraine, including possible sanctions relief and US President Donald Trump's decision to pause military aid to Ukraine. Peskov said it’s “too early to comment” on reports that the Trump administration is looking at possible sanctions relief for Russia but notes that sanctions are “illegal” and need to be lifted in order to normalise relations.
MNI EU: Commission President Outlines 'ReArm Europe' Plan
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has outlined the Commission's 'ReArm Europe' plan intended to significantly boost defence and security spending at the EU and member state level. One proposal is to activate the 'national escape clause' of the Stability and Growth Pact that will allow member states to increase domestic defence spending without entering the excessive deficit procedure.
MNI US-CHINA: SCIO Publishes Fentanyl White Paper As US Tariffs Hit
(MNI) London - China's state-run Xinhua reports that the State Council Information Office has released a white paper entitled "China's Control of Fentanyl-Like Substances". Allegations against China of fentanyl production/the production of chemicals used to make the drug have been cited as one of the factors behind the imposition of trade tariffs by the Trump administration. The white paper says that China "fully and deeply participates in important decision-making in the field of international drug control". In response to US pressure, the white paper says China "opposes mutual accusations and shirking of responsibilities"
MNI MIDEAST: Israeli FM Says Open To Phase 2 Talks; Arab League Ldrs Meet On Gaza
Israel's Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar says that the Israeli gov't is "ready to continue with phase two of the agreement, but for that we need an agreement. We will not agree to another October 7, from any front." Sa'ar refused to answer questions on if there was a deadline after which the war on Hamas in Gaza will resume, saying only, "If we want to - we will do it."
MNI US TSYS: Bonds Reverse Early Gains, Risk Off Consolidation?
OVERNIGHT DATA
No substantive data released Tuesday, focus on Wednesday morning's ADP private employment data ahead of Friday's key jobs data.
MARKETS SNAPSHOT
Key market levels of markets in late NY trade:
DJIA down 670.25 points (-1.55%) at 42520.99
S&P E-Mini Future down 67 points (-1.14%) at 5795
Nasdaq down 65 points (-0.4%) at 18285.16
US 10-Yr yield is up 4.7 bps at 4.2023%
US Jun 10-Yr futures are down 2.5/32 at 111-10.5
EURUSD up 0.0124 (1.18%) at 1.0611
USDJPY down 0.44 (-0.29%) at 149.07
WTI Crude Oil (front-month) down $0.05 (-0.07%) at $68.32
Gold is up $25.67 (0.89%) at $2918.38
European bourses closing levels:
EuroStoxx 50 down 153.38 points (-2.77%) at 5387.31
FTSE 100 down 112.31 points (-1.27%) at 8759
German DAX down 820.21 points (-3.54%) at 22326.81
French CAC 40 down 151.79 points (-1.85%) at 8047.92
US TREASURY FUTURES CLOSE
3M10Y +5.715, -9.185 (L: -22.55 / H: -7.802)
2Y10Y +6.401, 26.54 (L: 19.451 / H: 27.19)
2Y30Y +8.236, 57.886 (L: 49.358 / H: 59.371)
5Y30Y +3.952, 52.636 (L: 48.961 / H: 55.722)
Current futures levels:
Jun 2-Yr futures up 2.875/32 at 103-19.25 (L: 103-17.5 / H: 103-25.125)
Jun 5-Yr futures up 1/32 at 108-3.75 (L: 108-00.25 / H: 108-19.25)
Jun 10-Yr futures down 2.5/32 at 111-10.5 (L: 111-05 / H: 112-01)
Jun 30-Yr futures down 18/32 at 118-08 (L: 118-00 / H: 119-18)
Jun Ultra futures down 1-4/32 at 124-02 (L: 123-23 / H: 126-01)
MNI US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (M5) Fresh Cycle High
Treasury futures have traded to a fresh short-term cycle high today, reinforcing the current bullish condition. The contract has pierced resistance at 111-22+, the Dec 3 ‘24 high. This paves the way for an extension towards 112-02 and 112-13, Fibonacci projection points. Note that the daily trend condition is overbought, a pullback would be considered corrective and allow the overbought set-up to unwind. Firm support is at 110-00, the Feb 7 high.
SOFR FUTURES CLOSE
Mar 25 +0.005 at 95.725
Jun 25 +0.030 at 95.995
Sep 25 +0.050 at 96.240
Dec 25 +0.060 at 96.385
Red Pack (Mar 26-Dec 26) +0.045 to +0.070
Green Pack (Mar 27-Dec 27) -0.01 to +0.030
Blue Pack (Mar 28-Dec 28) -0.03 to -0.02
Gold Pack (Mar 29-Dec 29) -0.04 to -0.035
SOFR FIXES AND PRIOR SESSION REFERENCE RATES
SOFR Benchmark Settlements:
US TSYS: Repo Reference Rates
STIR: FRBNY EFFR for prior session:
FED Reverse Repo Operation
RRP usage climbs to $135.257B this afternoon from $119.987B Monday. Compares to $58.770B (lowest level since mid-April 2021) on February 14. The number of counterparties falls to 32 from 50 prior.
MNI PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: Mars Jumbo Issuance Chatter
MNI BUNDS: Futures Test Key Short-Term Support On Whatever It Takes Defense Moment
MNI FOREX: Greenback Weakness Extends, USDCHF Slides Below 0.8900
WEDNESDAY DATA CALENDAR
Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
05/03/2025 | 0730/0830 | *** | ![]() | CPI |
05/03/2025 | 0745/0845 | * | ![]() | Industrial Production |
05/03/2025 | 0815/0915 | ** | ![]() | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
05/03/2025 | 0815/0915 | ** | ![]() | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
05/03/2025 | 0845/0945 | ** | ![]() | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
05/03/2025 | 0845/0945 | ** | ![]() | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
05/03/2025 | 0850/0950 | ** | ![]() | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
05/03/2025 | 0850/0950 | ** | ![]() | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
05/03/2025 | 0855/0955 | ** | ![]() | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
05/03/2025 | 0855/0955 | ** | ![]() | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
05/03/2025 | 0900/1000 | *** | ![]() | GDP (f) |
05/03/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | ![]() | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
05/03/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | ![]() | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
05/03/2025 | 0930/0930 | ** | ![]() | S&P Global Services PMI (Final) |
05/03/2025 | 0930/0930 | *** | ![]() | S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Composite PMI |
05/03/2025 | 1000/1100 | ** | ![]() | PPI |
05/03/2025 | 1000/1100 | * | ![]() | Retail Sales |
05/03/2025 | 1000/1000 | ** | ![]() | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
05/03/2025 | 1000/1000 | ** | ![]() | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
05/03/2025 | 1200/0700 | ** | ![]() | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
05/03/2025 | 1315/0815 | *** | ![]() | ADP Employment Report |
05/03/2025 | 1430/1430 | ![]() | TSC: Bailey/Pill/Taylor/Greene | |
05/03/2025 | 1430/1430 | ![]() | Greene annual report | |
05/03/2025 | 1445/0945 | *** | ![]() | S&P Global Services Index (final) |
05/03/2025 | 1445/0945 | *** | ![]() | S&P Global US Final Composite PMI |
05/03/2025 | 1500/1000 | *** | ![]() | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index |
05/03/2025 | 1500/1000 | ** | ![]() | Factory New Orders |
05/03/2025 | 1530/1030 | ** | ![]() | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
05/03/2025 | 1900/1400 | ![]() | Fed Beige Book | |
05/03/2025 | 2315/1815 | ![]() | New York Fed's Roberto Perli | |
06/03/2025 | - | ![]() | European Central Bank Meeting | |
06/03/2025 | 0030/1130 | * | ![]() | Building Approvals |
06/03/2025 | 0030/1130 | ** | ![]() | Trade Balance |