EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
US
MNI POLITICAL RISK: Trump-Trudeau Call Ended On A "Somewhat" Friendly Manner
US President Trump offers his take of today's call with Canadian PM Trudeau, saying it ended ended on a "somewhat" friendly manner. The below are taken from Truth Social:
Wires report Canadian sources as saying discussions will continue today. This follows the one-month delay for auto tariffs announced earlier today, as previously hinted by Lutnick on the grounds that they are USMCA compliant. Auto production is particularly intertwined with US production lines, meaning tariffs there would be particularly damaging for all parties.
NEWS
MNI BRIEF: Every BOE Meeting Now "Live", MPC's Taylor Says
Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Alan Taylor said iWednesday that uncertainty is high, wage data unclear and that the MPC could change policy at any meeting, with rate setters divided over the outlook for policy and what is causing stagnation in output.
MNI US: CANADA: Trudeau Will Reject Unfavourable Compromise On Tariffs - Bloomberg
Bloomberg reporting that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will not lift retaliatory tariffs on the US unless President Donald Trump removes a 25% tariff imposed on Canadian imports on Tuesday morning. The report comes after comments from Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick raised optimism that a deal could be struck on partial tariff relief during a call between Trump and Trudeau today.
MNI UKRAINE: French Spox-Macron, Starmer & Zelenskyy Could Visit US Again Shortly
French gov't spox Sophie Primas has repeated comments about the possibility that President Emmanuel Macron could travel again to Washington, D.C., this time in the company of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and UK PM Sir Keir Starmer.
MNI Euronews-Ukraine Aid Back In Draft EUCO Conclusions
Ahead of the special European Council summit taking place on Thursday 6 March, Jorge Liboreiro at Euronews posts on X: "EUCO latest: The Kaja Kallas plan is back in the draft conclusions, after being removed. “The European Council calls on the Council to advance work swiftly on initiatives, notably that of the High Representative, to coordinate increased EU military support to Ukraine"."
MNI SECURITY: German Gov't Spox-EU Proposals On Defence 'Go In Right Direction'
A spokesperson for the German gov't has said that the European Commission's proposals with regard to defence spending "go in the right direction". This comes after two significant announcements from Brussels and Berlin on 4 March with regard to defence and security spending objectives, and how it can be paid for.
MNI GREECE: Parl't To Debate No Confidence Motion, But Oppo Efforts Doomed To Fail
Four opposition parties have submitted a motion of no confidence in the gov't of PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis, alleging "criminal incompetence" and a lack of progress in the investigation into the Tempi rail tragedy in February 2023 that claimed 57 lives. This is the second confidence motion moved against the gov't in less than a year on the highly emotive topic.
MNI US TSYS: Tariffs, Never Too Late To Negotiate
OVERNIGHT DATA
MNI US DATA: Highest ISM Services Employment In Three Years
The ISM services index was stronger than expected in Feb at 53.5 as it surprisingly climbed 0.7pts after a -1.2pt drop in Jan. The most notable component was employment, which showed no sign of echoing the service PMI with its first job cuts in three months.
MNI US DATA: Services PMI Not As Weak As First Feared, But Still Softening
The S&P Global US services PMI saw a solid upward revision to 51.0 in the final February report, although activity still moderated after a solid January and particularly robust readings through May-Dec when it had averaged 54.6. The upcoming ISM services report will be watched to see if there’s a repeat of the job cuts being seen for the first time in three months.
MNI US DATA: ADP Misses Along With Recent Downward Revisions
MNI US DATA: Mortgage Refis Sensitive To Limited Declines In Mortgage Rates
MNI CANADA DATA: Canada Services PMI Follows Mfg Lower On Tariffs
MARKETS SNAPSHOT
Key market levels of markets in late NY trade:
DJIA up 472.32 points (1.11%) at 42984.48
S&P E-Mini Future up 60.75 points (1.05%) at 5848.25
Nasdaq up 252.8 points (1.4%) at 18531.81
US 10-Yr yield is up 3.1 bps at 4.2747%
US Jun 10-Yr futures are down 14.5/32 at 110-25.5
EURUSD up 0.0168 (1.58%) at 1.0794
USDJPY down 0.98 (-0.65%) at 148.8
WTI Crude Oil (front-month) down $1.94 (-2.84%) at $66.33
Gold is up $4.53 (0.16%) at $2922.33
European bourses closing levels:
EuroStoxx 50 up 101.81 points (1.89%) at 5489.12
FTSE 100 down 3.16 points (-0.04%) at 8755.84
German DAX up 754.22 points (3.38%) at 23081.03
French CAC 40 up 125.83 points (1.56%) at 8173.75
US TREASURY FUTURES CLOSE
3M10Y +1.025, -4.232 (L: -12.596 / H: -3.467)
2Y10Y +2.656, 27.614 (L: 25.415 / H: 31.067)
2Y30Y +2.452, 56.954 (L: 54.668 / H: 61.825)
5Y30Y +0.502, 49.557 (L: 49.175 / H: 54.526)
Current futures levels:
Jun 2-Yr futures down 2.625/32 at 103-15.25 (L: 103-14.875 / H: 103-21.75)
Jun 5-Yr futures down 10/32 at 107-23.75 (L: 107-23.25 / H: 108-08)
Jun 10-Yr futures down 15/32 at 110-25 (L: 110-24 / H: 111-15)
Jun 30-Yr futures down 26/32 at 117-13 (L: 117-08 / H: 118-14)
Jun Ultra futures down 1-04/32 at 122-31 (L: 122-27 / H: 124-13)
MNI US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (M5) Overbought But Remains Bullish
Treasury futures traded to a fresh cycle high Tuesday, reinforcing current bullish conditions. The contract has pierced resistance at 111-22+, Dec 3 ‘24 high. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bullish theme and open 112-02 and 112-13, Fibonacci projection points. Note that the daily trend condition is overbought, a pullback would be considered corrective and allow the overbought set-up to unwind. Firm support is at 110-00, the Feb 7 high.
SOFR FUTURES CLOSE
Mar 25 -0.010 at 95.713
Jun 25 -0.035 at 95.945
Sep 25 -0.025 at 96.190
Dec 25 -0.035 at 96.320
Red Pack (Mar 26-Dec 26) -0.08 to -0.045
Green Pack (Mar 27-Dec 27) -0.10 to -0.09
Blue Pack (Mar 28-Dec 28) -0.10 to -0.095
Gold Pack (Mar 29-Dec 29) -0.095 to -0.085
SOFR FIXES AND PRIOR SESSION REFERENCE RATES
SOFR Benchmark Settlements:
US TSYS: Repo Reference Rates
STIR: FRBNY EFFR for prior session:
FED Reverse Repo Operation
RRP usage inches up to $139.493B this afternoon from $135.257B Tuesday. Compares to $58.770B (lowest level since mid-April 2021) on February 14. The number of counterparties falls to 32 from 50 prior.
MNI PIPELINE: Late Corporate Bond Update: Waiting For Mars
Still waiting for the $26B Mars 8pt jumbo to price - eighth largest issuer on record.
MNI FOREX: EURUSD Rally Gathers Momentum, Approaches 1.0800 Mark
THURSDAY DATA CALENDAR
Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
06/03/2025 | 0645/0745 | ** | ![]() | Unemployment |
06/03/2025 | 0700/0800 | ![]() | Flash CPI | |
06/03/2025 | 0830/0930 | ** | ![]() | S&P Global Final Eurozone Construction PMI |
06/03/2025 | 0930/0930 | ![]() | Decision Maker Panel data | |
06/03/2025 | 0930/0930 | ** | ![]() | S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI |
06/03/2025 | 1000/1100 | ** | ![]() | Retail Sales |
06/03/2025 | 1100/0600 | *** | ![]() | Turkey Benchmark Rate |
06/03/2025 | 1315/1415 | *** | ![]() | ECB Deposit Rate |
06/03/2025 | 1315/1415 | *** | ![]() | ECB Main Refi Rate |
06/03/2025 | 1315/1415 | *** | ![]() | ECB Marginal Lending Rate |
06/03/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | ![]() | Jobless Claims |
06/03/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | ![]() | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
06/03/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | ![]() | International Merchandise Trade (Trade Balance) |
06/03/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | ![]() | International Merchandise Trade (Trade Balance) |
06/03/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | ![]() | Trade Balance |
06/03/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | ![]() | Non-Farm Productivity (f) |
06/03/2025 | 1345/1445 | ![]() | ECB Press conference post Governing council meeting | |
06/03/2025 | 1345/0845 | ![]() | Philly Fed's Pat Harker | |
06/03/2025 | 1445/1545 | ![]() | Publication of ECB Staff macroeconomic projections | |
06/03/2025 | 1500/1000 | * | ![]() | Ivey PMI |
06/03/2025 | 1500/1000 | ** | ![]() | Wholesale Trade |
06/03/2025 | 1515/1615 | ![]() | ECB Podcast: Lagarde presents latest MonPol decision | |
06/03/2025 | 1515/1615 | ![]() | Lagarde video message at Women's Forum event | |
06/03/2025 | 1530/1030 | ** | ![]() | Natural Gas Stocks |
06/03/2025 | 1630/1130 | ** | ![]() | US Bill 04 Week Treasury Auction Result |
06/03/2025 | 1630/1130 | * | ![]() | US Bill 08 Week Treasury Auction Result |
06/03/2025 | 1700/1200 | ![]() | Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent | |
06/03/2025 | 2030/1530 | ![]() | Fed Governor Christopher Waller | |
06/03/2025 | 0000/1900 | ![]() | Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic |