UKRAINE: French Spox-Macron, Starmer & Zelenskyy Could Visit US Again Shortly
French gov't spox Sophie Primas has repeated comments about the possibility that President Emmanuel Macron could travel again to Washington, D.C., this time in the company of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and UK PM Sir Keir Starmer. Speaking after the weekly meeting of the French Council of Ministers, Primas says the visit could come "in the short term", perhaps as soon as next week. The Daily Mail first reported the prospect of such a visit late on 4 March.
- This comes after Zelenskyy issued a statement where he expressed regret at the events that took place last week at the White House, where he, US President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance engaged in a heated argument in the Oval Office in front of the world's press. Zelenskyy also confirmed that he would sign a minerals agreement with Trump "any time and in any convenient format."
- In his address to the joint session of Congress on 4 March, Trump said that he 'appreciated' Zelenskyy's 'important letter' (potentially referring to the statement on X). Whether this indicates a cooling of tempers remains to be seen. Macron and Starmer, after apparently positive visits to the White House last week, may think that a united effort to convince Trump to restore aid to Ukraine may be more effective than solo pleas.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - EURUSD Trend Needle Points South
- In FX, today’s gap lower and fresh cycle low in EURUSD highlights a resumption of the downtrend. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position and attention is on 1.0138, the 1.764 projection of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing. Clearance of this level would open 1.0031, the 2.00 projection. Initial resistance is at 1.0308, today’s intraday high and a gap low on the daily chart.
- The latest pullback in GBPUSD highlights a bearish threat. The move down signals the end of the Jan 13 - 27 correction and note too that resistance at 1.2506, the 50-day EMA, capped recent gains, reinforcing bearish conditions. Furthermore, moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. A continuation lower would open 1.2100, the Jan 13 low and bear trigger. Key resistance is 1.2523, the Jan 27 high.
- The primary trend condition in USDJPY is bullish. However, the Jan 27 move down highlights a stronger bear threat. The pair has breached the 50-day EMA and a trendline drawn from the Sep 16 ‘24 low. A resumption of weakness would open 152.55, 61.8% of the Dec 3 - Jan 10 bull leg. Initial firm resistance is at 156.75, the Jan 23 high. Clearance of this hurdle would be a bullish development.
LOOK AHEAD: Monday Data Calendar: S&P Mfg PMI, ISMs, Fed Speakers
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 3-Feb 0945 S&P Global US Mfg PMI final (50.1, 50.1)
- 3-Feb 1000 Construction Spending MoM (0.0%, 0.2%)
- 3-Feb 1000 ISM Manufacturing (49.2 rev, 49.9)
- 3-Feb 1000 ISM New Orders (52.1 rev, --)
- 3-Feb 1000 ISM Employment (45.4 rev, --)
- 3-Feb 1000 ISM Prices Paid (52.5, 54.8)
- 3-Feb 1130 US Tsy $84B 13W & $72B 26W bill auctions
- 3-Feb 1230 Atlanta Fed Bostic moderated Q&A eco-outlook (no text)
- 3-Feb 1830 StL Fed Musalem welcome remarks
STIR: Mix Of Net Short Setting & Long Cover In SOFR Futures On Friday
OI data points to a mix of net short setting and long cover in SOFR futures on Friday, with the only outright net positioning swing of any note coming via net short setting in SFRM5 (~15K, which accounted for less than 1.5% of outstanding OI).
| 31-Jan-25 | 30-Jan-25 | Daily OI Change |
| Daily OI Change In Packs |
SFRZ4 | 1,089,556 | 1,085,831 | +3,725 | Whites | +19,349 |
SFRH5 | 1,213,684 | 1,217,522 | -3,838 | Reds | -10,004 |
SFRM5 | 1,073,919 | 1,058,543 | +15,376 | Greens | +4,355 |
SFRU5 | 774,414 | 770,328 | +4,086 | Blues | -6,741 |
SFRZ5 | 958,695 | 955,673 | +3,022 |
|
|
SFRH6 | 682,080 | 690,312 | -8,232 |
|
|
SFRM6 | 636,078 | 637,997 | -1,919 |
|
|
SFRU6 | 594,408 | 597,283 | -2,875 |
|
|
SFRZ6 | 692,856 | 701,591 | -8,735 |
|
|
SFRH7 | 485,031 | 481,031 | +4,000 |
|
|
SFRM7 | 412,863 | 406,599 | +6,264 |
|
|
SFRU7 | 290,400 | 287,574 | +2,826 |
|
|
SFRZ7 | 275,864 | 278,791 | -2,927 |
|
|
SFRH8 | 218,970 | 219,929 | -959 |
|
|
SFRM8 | 180,985 | 183,297 | -2,312 |
|
|
SFRU8 | 120,100 | 120,643 | -543 |
|
|
