FOREX: Mixed NFP Does Little to Reassure Greenback
Mar-07 17:11
- The greenback was sold on the back of a mixed NFP report, which saw headline payrolls growth only slightly below expectations, while the unemployment rate ticked higher to 4.1%. Despite the miss on consensus, Trump's post-jobs report press conference talked up the strength in the underlying data, but did little to overturn the pullback in the dollar: the USD Index consolidates the move to erase the entirety of the election-tripped gains, again favouring EUR/USD to extend the week's winning streak.
- Canadian jobs data came in soft relative to expectations, with the net change in employment at +1.1k vs. Exp. +20.0k, as a sizeable drop in full time employment countered the rise in part time positions. The softer-than-expected report prompted a strong session for USD/CAD, which showed above the 1.4400 handle to partly reverse this week's downside.
- CAD saw another brief phase of additional selling pressure on the back of Trump's post-jobs report comments, who hinted at the possibility of further tariffs - which could come as soon as today, Monday or Tuesday.
- AUD and NZD weakened against most others in G10 as equities spiralled. The tech-led weakness prompted NVIDIA to shed as much as $1 trillion in market cap off the record high, and sees Tesla near half in value off the December high. EUR/NZD rallied sharply - putting the cross north of 1.90 for the first time since the COVID pandemic.
- Focus in the week ahead turns to US inflation, with both CPI and PPI prints due from the US. Importantly, the Fed will be inside their pre-meeting media blackout period, meaning markets could pay greater attention to the prints as a lead-up to the FOMC decision on March 19th.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
EUR: Focus on Activity Data & BoE Tomorrow
Feb-05 17:10
- Mixed performance for the Euro against G10 peers on Wednesday, as softer US ISM Services prompts some EURUSD strength, however, the significant yen outperformance has weighed heavily on EURJPY (-1.00%), with price action supported by overnight Japanese wage figures.
- While single currency sentiment continues to be impacted by Eurozone growth concerns, there will be some attention on the 'core' figure of German factory orders on Thursday to provide the latest update. However, the data is unlikely to alter the narrative of industrial weakness, which appears well factored in at this juncture.
- More importantly, the Bank of England will headline tomorrow, and we think its Bank Agent's Pay Settlement Survey could provide some signal on policy ahead. EURGBP’s renewed weakness this week will provide some focus on the cross, having pulled further away from trendline resistance in recent weeks.
- Short-term resistance for the cross stands at 0.8363/69, the Jan 3 high / 20-day EMA, while initial support would be located at 0.8248, Monday’s low. Below here, the key 2022 low at 0.8203 comes back into focus, the weakest point of a multi-year range.
FED: US TSY TO SELL $42.000 BLN 10Y NOTES FEB 12, SETTLE FEB 18
Feb-05 17:05
- US TSY TO SELL $42.000 BLN 10Y NOTES FEB 12, SETTLE FEB 18
FED: US TSY TO SELL $25.000 BLN 30Y BOND FEB 13, SETTLE FEB 18
Feb-05 17:05
- US TSY TO SELL $25.000 BLN 30Y BOND FEB 13, SETTLE FEB 18
