US TSY FUTURES: Mix Of Short Cover & Long Setting On Tuesday
OI data points to a mix of net short cover and long setting as Tsy futures rallied on Tuesday.
- Net short cover in US futures provided the most meaningful net positioning adjustment (~$5.7mln DV01 equivalent), tilting the curve-wide positioning swing in that direction.
| 14-Oct-25 | 13-Oct-25 | Daily OI Change | OI DV01 Equivalent Change ($) |
TU | 4,589,469 | 4,613,433 | -23,964 | -934,901 |
FV | 6,693,393 | 6,718,630 | -25,237 | -1,104,588 |
TY | 5,410,066 | 5,395,260 | +14,806 | +1,006,011 |
UXY | 2,466,290 | 2,452,629 | +13,661 | +1,244,858 |
US | 1,880,889 | 1,924,764 | -43,875 | -5,694,897 |
WN | 2,065,293 | 2,059,001 | +6,292 | +1,203,809 |
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| Total | -58,317 | -4,279,708 |
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - EUROSTOXX50 Recovery Extends
- In the equity space, a bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and last week’s fresh cycle highs reinforce current conditions. The move higher confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on the 6685.25, a 1.00 projection of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing, and the 6700.00 handle. Initial support to watch is 6547.03, the 20-day EMA. A corrective bear cycle in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains in play. Recent weakness resulted in a breach of 5370.21, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average strengthens a short-term bearish threat and signals scope for a deeper retracement towards 5166.00, the Aug 1 low and a key support. On the upside, the contract has recovered above the 20-day EMA - a bullish development for now. A stronger rally would expose 5522.0, the Aug 26 high.
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z5) Bullish Trend Sequence
- RES 4: 114-10 High Apr 7 (cont.)
- RES 3: 114-07 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 114-00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 113-29 High Sep 5
- PRICE: 113-10 @ 11:16 BST Sep 15
- SUP 1: 112-23+ 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 112-02 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 111-13+ Low Aug 18 and a key support
- SUP 4: 110-25 Low Aug 1
Treasury futures rallied to a fresh cycle high last Thursday, strengthening current bullish conditions. Note that the recent impulsive rally highlights an acceleration of the uptrend. Also, moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. This suggests scope for an extension through 114-00 next and a test of 114-10, the Apr 7 high (cont). Initial firm support to watch is 112-23+, the 20-day EMA.
SOFR: Mix Of Short Setting & Long Cover In Futures On Friday
OI data points to a mix of net short setting (in the whites) and net long cover (in the reds, greens & blues) as SOFR futures ticked lower on Friday.
| 12-Sep-25 | 11-Sep-25 | Daily OI Change |
| Daily OI Change In Packs |
SFRM5 | 1,231,643 | 1,225,409 | +6,234 | Whites | +28,291 |
SFRU5 | 1,487,469 | 1,473,429 | +14,040 | Reds | -13,380 |
SFRZ5 | 1,670,579 | 1,666,022 | +4,557 | Greens | -18,268 |
SFRH6 | 1,200,040 | 1,196,580 | +3,460 | Blues | -21,589 |
SFRM6 | 1,005,633 | 1,015,971 | -10,338 |
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SFRU6 | 910,870 | 889,115 | +21,755 |
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SFRZ6 | 1,014,912 | 1,033,649 | -18,737 |
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SFRH7 | 709,949 | 716,009 | -6,060 |
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SFRM7 | 823,158 | 849,677 | -26,519 |
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SFRU7 | 692,056 | 690,088 | +1,968 |
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SFRZ7 | 690,926 | 686,161 | +4,765 |
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SFRH8 | 447,757 | 446,239 | +1,518 |
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SFRM8 | 362,224 | 357,038 | +5,186 |
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SFRU8 | 251,991 | 273,387 | -21,396 |
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SFRZ8 | 259,301 | 260,820 | -1,519 |
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SFRH9 | 182,320 | 186,180 | -3,860 |
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