SOFR: Mix Of Net Long Setting & Short Cover Seen Thursday
OI data points to net long setting dominating in the SOFR white, green and blue packs on Thursday, while net short cover was more prominent in the reds as most contracts settled higher.
| 20-Nov-25 | 19-Nov-25 | Daily OI Change |
| Daily OI Change In Packs |
SFRU5 | 1,401,556 | 1,386,121 | +15,435 | Whites | +59,422 |
SFRZ5 | 1,484,002 | 1,440,702 | +43,300 | Reds | -14,342 |
SFRH6 | 1,351,448 | 1,343,824 | +7,624 | Greens | +17,922 |
SFRM6 | 1,110,590 | 1,117,527 | -6,937 | Blues | +20,028 |
SFRU6 | 1,146,853 | 1,138,785 | +8,068 |
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SFRZ6 | 1,158,559 | 1,167,004 | -8,445 |
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SFRH7 | 860,651 | 868,267 | -7,616 |
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SFRM7 | 794,356 | 800,705 | -6,349 |
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SFRU7 | 845,673 | 819,957 | +25,716 |
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SFRZ7 | 819,177 | 823,092 | -3,915 |
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SFRH8 | 454,320 | 452,630 | +1,690 |
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SFRM8 | 395,558 | 401,127 | -5,569 |
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SFRU8 | 357,992 | 345,025 | +12,967 |
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SFRZ8 | 333,744 | 324,355 | +9,389 |
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SFRH9 | 192,485 | 195,637 | -3,152 |
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SFRM9 | 187,877 | 187,053 | +824 |
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bull Cycle In Gilts Extends
- In the FI space, short-term resistance in Bund futures remains intact for now. The trend outlook is bullish following recent strong impulsive gains and sights are on the next key resistance at 130.80, the Jun 13 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen the bullish condition. Note that the contract is overbought, a deeper pullback would allow this condition to unwind. Initial key support is 129.30, the 20-day EMA.
- A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains intact and today’s gap higher strengthens the bullish condition. The contract is through its recent high of 93.17, the Oct 17 high. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and signals scope for an extension towards 93.95 next, a 1.500 projection of the Sep 3 - 11 - 26 price swing. Note that the contract is overbought, a pullback would allow this condition to unwind. A key support to watch lies at 91.65, the 20-day EMA. Initial support lies at 93.17, the Oct 17 high.
CHINA-EU: EU Preparing Responses To Rare Earth Restrictions: BBG
Bloomberg reporting on potential EU responses to China's rare earth restrictions:
- "The European Union is working on trade options to counter China’s planned export controls on critical raw materials should the bloc fail to reach a diplomatic solution with Beijing."
- "The European Commission is preparing a list of trade measures by the end of the month that can later be deployed against China to boost its negotiating leverage, according to people familiar with the matter. The commission is also developing a plan to protect critical supplies in the short-term and secure other sources. "
- "The issue will likely be addressed at an EU leaders’ summit in Brussels this week, though the commission wants to avoid a discussion on specific measures, said the people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. They declined to say what trade options the EU could consider, citing the sensitive nature of the matter."
OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline
- EUR/USD: Oct23 $1.1515-25(E1.1bln), $1.1555-65(E1.3bln), $1.1575(E1.2bln), $1.1650(E1.1bln), $1.1670-80(E1.0bln), $1.1750-70(E2.8bln); Oct24 $1.1500-20(E1.2bln), $1.1635-50(E1.1bln); Oct27 $1.1520-35(E1.2bln), $1.1670-80(E1.1bln), $1.1700-10(E1.1bln)
- USD/JPY: Oct24 Y150.00($2.0bln), Y151.00-20($1.4bln)
- AUD/USD: Oct23 $0.6585-00(A$1.1bln); Oct24 $0.6450(A$1.6bln); Oct27 $0.6490(A$1.8bln)
